According to the Telegraph, the Greens have held talks with several Labour MPs about possibly defecting. We’re not told how many MPs are involved, nor any of their names, but in the wake of the Gorton and Denton by-election, this is hardly surprising.

It’s tempting to see the tension between Labour and the Greens as a mirror image of the Conservative-Reform UK psychodrama. Both the established parties now have a radical and electable challenger breathing down their necks. For many disgruntled MPs, defection is no longer a futile gesture but instead their best chance of surviving the next general election.

Already, we’ve seen five serving MPs defect from the Conservative Party to Reform. It would be pleasingly symmetrical for Labour Left-wingers to make the corresponding leap Greenward. However, the defection game could be a much bigger deal on the Left than it is on the Right.

For a start, there are 404 Labour MPs in the Commons compared to 116 Tories, so the Greens have a bigger pool to fish in. As the elections expert John Curtice points out, it’s also pretty obvious which Labour MPs the Greens ought to be pursuing: those with urban constituencies, with a high proportion of students and/or ethnic minority votes.

Another asymmetry between Left and Right is ideological. Under Kemi Badenoch, differences of principle between the Conservatives and Reform UK are disappearing quickly. A footloose Right-wing Tory who wants to quit the European Convention on Human Rights and dump Net Zero can get that sort of thing at home now. But on a range of issues, from Gaza to welfare cuts, the Labour Left finds itself on Zack Polanski’s side of a fundamental split. The same goes for the hundred-odd Labour MPs organizing to oppose Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s immigration crackdown.

Then there’s the biggest difference between the defection dynamics of Left and Right. While Polanski wants to cooperate with Labour, Nigel Farage wants to destroy the Conservative Party. That makes accepting defectors a dilemma for the Reform leader. On the one hand, he needs the ministerial experience of someone like Robert Jenrick. But on the other, he has to resist charges that Reform is becoming the Tories 2.0. His solution is a defection deadline. After 7 May — the date of the local, Scottish and Welsh elections — Conservative politicians will no longer be welcome chez Nigel.

By contrast, there’s no time limit on Labour defections to the Greens. And that’s important because 7 May will provide a crucial test of Green electability. Particularly important will be the party’s performance in London, where all 32 borough councils are up for election.

The capital is quickly emerging as the key battleground between Labour and the Greens. Last week, the Guardian reported on a local election forecast that Labour could drop from a commanding first place across London to fourth, with the Greens gaining more than 500 councilors. Anything close to such an outcome would provoke panic in Labour — and perhaps a stampede of MPs for the exits. At the very least, party strategists need to prepare a distraction. And in that respect, a leadership election would do nicely.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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