How Trump conquered Europe His new security strategy reveals an imperial intent

Never underestimate the capacity of Europeans to be shocked by Donald Trump. Shocked that he wants to make peace in Ukraine. Shocked that he talks to Vladimir Putin. Shocked by last week’s National Security Strategy (NSS), with its warnings of Europe’s “civilizational erasure” — a jab at our immigration policies.

Their pearl-clutching reminds me of Captain Louis Renault, that cynical and corrupt police officer in Casablanca. But unlike Renault, who only pretended to be “shocked!” as he uncovered the gambling den and pocketed the proceeds, Europe’s political class truly didn’t see any of this coming. Perhaps they should have.

Instead, the Europeans are still clinging on to those end-of-history ideas that characterized Western policy thinking between 1990 and 2020. Europe’s legacy media and many of its intellectuals are creatures of that period. They hate Maga and its European mutants, but don’t understand why it is happening. They see the rise of Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage as a Russian conspiracy, aided and abetted by a pernicious Big Tech industry. They keep pointing the finger and shrieking, and keep losing the battles.

And they keep on underestimating Trump — their fatal error. The NSS may be odious as it attempts to build a new nationalism, but it is a foreign policy statement that should be taken seriously. I’d place it in a similar category as the Mar-a-Lago Accord, which was widely dismissed, even though it held the key to Trump’s economic policy. The paper, written by Stephen Miran, a former Trump policy adviser and now a member of the Federal Reserve’s board of governors, had two important messages that Europeans failed to spot. First, Trump would use tariffs to gain advantage over other countries in global trade. And second, the Europeans would have to pay the US for security guarantees in the form of increased military procurement. The Europeans should have heeded these warnings. But after Trump announced the tariffs, they sent the B-team to negotiate in Washington — then they folded. Then Europe folded again on military spending.

Superficially at least, the NSS appears to resurrect the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, something defense secretary Pete Hegseth has explicitly vowed to do. This old doctrine stated that the US would not tolerate interference in its domestic affairs by its former colonial powers, and that it likewise would not interfere in the politics of other countries. While there are contradictions here — the NSS explicitly advocates interference in others’ politics — there are also similarities. Trump, like Monroe, sees foreign countries as transactional business partners or competitors, or both. But there has been a reshuffling of traditional roles. Today, the EU is considered a competitor; Russia a future business partner. Trump is also happy cutting deals with Arab leaders, including Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Syrian president and a former member of Al-Qaeda. No wonder the old-school foreign policy crowd is confused.

Moscow, though, will probably be the single largest beneficiary of the new approach. Unlike most Western leaders, Trump understands Russia’s commercial strength. It is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world, and not just in oil and gas. It is the world’s largest producer of palladium. It has large deposits of rare-earth elements in Siberia, many of which are unexplored. It is a leading producer of nickel, copper, aluminum and zinc. Russia also stands to benefit from global warming. The warmer Arctic weather is opening up the Northern Sea Route, a maritime passage that stretches from Alaska to Norway. Trump understands this; Europe does not.

There is one passage in the NSS that is particularly revealing. It lies at the heart of America’s current influence and Europe’s decline. The passage pinpoints why the US is so powerful. This is not primarily thanks to military might, instead the document lists a nimble political system that can course-correct; the world’s most innovative economy, especially the tech sector; and the world’s leading financial system and currency. Europe can boast none of this.

Boasting only a surfeit of group think and deficit of strategic foresight, Europeans have relied on the US to provide critical services — such as the global financial backstop, the absorption of excess savings, and of course military protection — and basically gave up on innovation. The EU never managed to form a joint capital market because narrow national interests intruded. Even the single market, once the showpiece of European integration, has been crushed by over-regulation.

Meanwhile, Europe’s politics are stagnating. Yes, there is a real danger of “civilizational erasure”, but the cause is not immigration. Instead, it’s this overdependence on the US; this has created political inertia and a collection of failing states. Consider the Europe section of the NSS document. It comes with the Maga-style headline of “Promoting European Greatness” and kicks off with a recognition of Europe’s decline. Europe constituted 25% of global economic output in 1990; today, that figure has fallen to 14%. The document notes that Europe’s economic and political weakness has given rise to a general lack of self-confidence. In no area is this more apparent than in Europe’s relationship with Russia. The following statement about the war in Ukraine in the NSS is more coherent than anything you will ever read in Europe: “The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war.” European policy is premised on the idea that Ukraine can still repel Russia from the occupied territories. This is delusional. It has been clear since Ukraine’s failed spring offense in 2023 that it has no pathway towards victory.

Inevitably, Europe reacted to the document with unmitigated, and delusional, horror — they are shocked! — especially regarding the threat to cultivate “resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations”. It is now America’s official policy to support Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen and Alice Weidel. As Germany, France and the UK struggle to deliver meaningful political change, Trump is threatening to take control.

To be fair, it is shocking to see it spelled out. This is clearly not the Monroe Doctrine. The US is trying to meddle massively in Europe’s internal politics. In that sense, the policy is imperialist. The US will do everything in its power to maintain its leadership in technology, finance and the military and keep Europe a de facto US colony. But, instead of pearl-clutching when the penny dropped, the Europeans should have seen it coming. They should have been prepared.

Henry Kissinger joked that it may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but it is fatal to be America’s friend. This describes with deadly accuracy the European position right now. Any self-respecting country, or group of countries, would at this point try to break free of America’s grip. But, like an addict confronting his withdrawal, that would require strength, and a willingness to make sacrifices. Europeans would have to give up on their cushy social models. They would have to acquire the skills of strategic thinking and planning. They would have to cut taxes and reshuffle their public spending priorities.

Trump’s re-election could have been an opportunity for Europeans to take their destiny into their own hands. But I’ve said it before, and will again, this is not going to happen. Obviously, the Europeans will not resist. They never do, as they are full of fear. It is not the failure of Trump’s policies that Europe’s foreign policy elites dread, but their success. They fear the end of their beloved multilateral global order will catapult different people to the top — people like Steve Witkoff, whom Europeans keep on referring to as a property tycoon with no experience in foreign policy. But you underestimate dangerous people at your peril. And this arrogance hides insecurity, encourages inertia and augurs failure.

Trump wants Europe to stay hooked on the American supply, just as Europe fears the withdrawal symptoms if they go cold turkey. Trump wants to maintain the dependency relationship and his new security doctrine says as much. As the NSS puts it “Europe is strategically and culturally vital to the US”. And this reference to “culturally vital” perfectly explains Trump’s attitude towards us. Americans see Europe as the world’s museum. And Europeans have long conformed to this stereotype. They are the champions of preservation and conservation, obsessed with protecting listed buildings and medieval villages, while at the same time suffering from housing shortages. There was a time when Europe’s classical music and literature was modern. But today, Europe is a cultural theme park, owned by American entertainment companies. That’s what I call civilizational erasure.

Casablanca is a story about Americans and Europeans. The version we’ve watched ends with a famous line about the beginning of a beautiful friendship. But this is not how our story will end. Our fate will be more like the original ending of the film, with the final tragic dialogue between Humphrey Bogart and Ingrid Bergman, when the American said: “We’ll always have Paris.”

Indeed, they will.

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