X Close

The axis of evil is a fantasy North Korean help exposes Putin's weakness

An axis of convenience (Photo by ED JONES/AFP via Getty Images)

An axis of convenience (Photo by ED JONES/AFP via Getty Images)


October 19, 2024   4 mins

A terror is stalking Europe. That, at least, is the impression you get from Kyiv. As Andriy Yermak, head of the country’s office of the president proclaimed, a new “axis of evil” is forming right across the planet, developing into a thoroughgoing military alliance that “challenges democracies and the world order”. And certainly, you can understand his fears to a point. North Korea, after all, is apparently planning to deploy some 10,000 troops to bolster Russia’s war effort, even as Pyongyang may now be supplying half of Moscow’s artillery shells. 

Yet if a June 2024 agreement between the countries is certainly worrying, especially when dovetailed by Chinese sabre-rattling in the Pacific, the West is facing less an axis of evil than of convenience. The truth is that Vladmir Putin is deeply reliant on Kim Jong Un — and the help he’s getting from the hermit kingdom is basically a sign of weakness, not strength. 

The sudden appearance of North Koreans in their country was unsurprisingly greeted by alarm in Kyiv. And considering how the conflict is going, Yermak’s dramatic language surely makes sense. Over the last few months, after all, the Russians have made grinding gains right across Ukraine, sometimes advancing as much as a kilometre a day and threatening strategically significant cities like Pokrovsk. To an extent, meanwhile, the recent alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang reflects a long-standing amity. The countries have enjoyed generally warm relations since Putin’s ascension to the presidency 25 years ago. Among other things, Pyongyang played host to one of the president’s first state visits abroad, when he hailed the Soviet army’s special role in “liberating” North Korea from Japanese occupation in 1945.

Nonetheless, Moscow issued firm condemnations of North Korea’s erratic and dangerous behaviour on the international stage in the mid-2000s, when Putin hoped to burnish his international reputation by playing mediator on the Korean Peninsula. No less important, the sweep of Russian history demonstrates the real balance of power between the two countries. During the early years of the Cold War, the North Korean regime relied on Soviet help to carve out territory. From there, it spent decades oppressing its population while dodging Soviet retaliation. While the Kim dynasty were never Russian pariahs, in other words, they were always treated as junior partners, to be praised or scolded as it suited Moscow. 

Since his 2022 invasion, however, Putin has been desperate for partners wherever he can find them. Now, the president makes naked attempts to rewrite history and paint Russia and Korea as old and equal partners. The security partnership signed this year, and North Korea’s increasing provision of soldiers and shells, seem to suggest that equality is being embraced by both sides. Yet despite the pageantry of the official dinners, and the finesse of the PR statements, Putin is clearly desperate for Kim Jong Un’s support. 

Notwithstanding recent Russia’s victories around places like Pokrovsk, that’s fundamentally down to its broad geopolitical frailty. Russia is today struggling with a deep crisis in military recruitment, fuelled mainly by the huge losses it’s suffered at the front. Each month, 30,000 men enter the military and the same number are invalided home or killed on the battlefield. Despite the vast bonuses offered to contract soldiers who choose to enlist, which by some measures now account for 1.5% of the Russian spending, the state is still forced to scour the globe for mercenaries to support its war. A division of raw North Korean conscripts, ignorant of Russian and unfamiliar with their officers, would vanish if thrown into the Ukrainian meat grinder. 

“A division of raw North Korean conscripts would vanish if thrown into the Ukrainian meat grinder.”

And if its reliance on North Korea speaks to a military problem, meanwhile, Russia also leans on the DPRK economically. Though the Kim regime can certainly manufacture shells in vast numbers, reportedly shipping some five million to its Russian allies, many appear to be badly made. The fact that Putin is accepting them anyway suggests that he has nowhere else to turn. That’s clear elsewhere: though Russia is now spending some 40% of its budget on defence, and refurbishing factories to pump out munitions, it remains totally reliant on external partners like North Korea. Despite boasting an economy some 10 times larger than North Korea’s, in short, Russia, seems incapable of waging an independent war on Ukraine let alone launching an attack on Nato as part of some nefarious plot to explode the global order. Pyongyang, for its part, can only offer marginal support to their desperate Russian partner, assistance they’re anyway giving mainly to extract cash, scientific research, and other goodies.

Despite the ominous signs, then, the purported axis of evil probably shouldn’t worry Western leaders. On the contrary, the June alliance points to Moscow’s ever weaker position on the world stage. Putin, frantic to pick up whatever scraps of men and materiel he can, has been reduced to begging. And as soon as the North Koreans spot a better deal, particularly from China, they’ll have little incentive to remain loyal to Moscow. Should China demand or buy Pyongyang’s support for an invasion of Taiwan, Putin’s war will be forgotten in an instant.

Russia may win some small gains from its North Korean ally. But 10,000 troops as unwelcome as their presence in Ukraine undoubtedly is ultimately won’t change the course of the war. Yet if the world at large has little to fear from Putin and Kim’s fair-weather friendship, might the West have an opportunity here? If, after all, Kim Jong Un can be tempted to stop providing shells and soldiers to Moscow, either by China or a Western coalition, might an exhausted Russia be forced to retreat from Ukraine? Such a move won’t, of course, win the war alone. Re-supplying Ukraine’s own exhausted military is vital too. Yet squeezing Russia’s supply of weapons would surely hamper Putin’s ability to hold the line, or indeed prepare for another attack against Ukraine. Divided by ideological differences, and opposing medium-term goals, the new “axis of evil” is hardly an axis at all. 


Dr. Ian Garner is assistant professor of totalitarian studies at the Pilecki Institute in Warsaw. His latest book is Z Generation: Russia’s Fascist Youth (Hurst).

irgarner

Join the discussion


Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber


To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.

Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.

Subscribe
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

16 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
David McKee
David McKee
22 days ago

Dr. Garner is right. 10,000 men from North Korea won’t win the war for Putin (although they may be much better trained than Dr. Garner imagines). But North Korea has 1.3m men in its regular army. 10,000 could expand to 50,000 or 100,000 quite easily. Then what?

0 01
0 01
22 days ago
Reply to  David McKee

Wrong, the North Korean military is in horrible shape, They don’t have the economic bass to sustain such a massive military. Much of their equipment is old and obsolete and in a bad state of repair and have allowed much of it to decay In pursuit of nuclear weapons .The fact being that the military is also extremely politicized also does not help matters and corruption is a huge problem in North Korea. The only reason why the North Koreans do not try anything against the south is because they would get hammered and what’s keeping the regime in place of an external threat is its nuclear arsenal and it’s ability to rain havoc on the Korean peninsula through massive artillery bombardments of Seoul. Essentially their whole military strategy is reliant on the idea that they Will be defeated in a conflict with the South and America, but they will make the cost so high that their enemies will be reluctant to actually initiate a war with them. They do this for a position of weakness not strength, and such strategy if they actually take part in offensive military operations in Ukraine is not going to work there do to being far away from their home. The real role of the North Korean military is to protect the regime from internal threats.

Jerry Carroll
Jerry Carroll
22 days ago
Reply to  0 01

Generations of inadequate food and even starvation have produced a population and therefore a military that is physically (4 inches shorter on average than South Koreans) weak, and dull-minded. You need adequate food especially in the first years of life for the brain to grow, They’ll make good cannon fodder but more can’t be expected of them.

David McKee
David McKee
21 days ago
Reply to  0 01

0 01 knows – or thinks he knows – a lot about the North Korean army. Precisely how he knows this, given the extreme secretiveness of the regime, is a mystery.

He also seems to think that this massive army is all that stands between North Korea and South Korean aggression. How sure is he that Seoul wants reunification by force, if it could get away with it?

Finally, it is reasonable to suppose that the North Koreans sent their very best troops to Ukraine. And as the North Koreans and Russians use essentially the same equipment, logistics should not be too much of a problem.

But the proof of the pudding… let’s see how they acquit themselves on the battlefield.

Martin M
Martin M
21 days ago
Reply to  David McKee

North Korean soldiers occasionally defect to South Korea. By all accounts, they are short, poorly fed, diseased, and are afflicted with parasites of various sorts.

Dave Canuck
Dave Canuck
21 days ago
Reply to  David McKee

I doubt very much tthat they sent their best troops, most probably the disposable ones sent as canon fodder, or grunts providing logistical support in order to free up more Russian conscripts to fight at the front lines . Why would North Korea lose their best or elite troops in Ukraine anyways? The Koreans have zero battle experience, they have not fought a war since the 1950s. They need their best troops to maintain the regime in place. Don’t be fooled by the numbers, North Korea is a backwards and very poor country, they would get annihilated if ever they attacked the South, and it would be an opportunity for the military to overthrow the decrepit Kim regime. The elite troops need to be kept close by, they won’t accept to be sent to die for Putin and could launch a coup if they are angry.

Peter B
Peter B
21 days ago
Reply to  David McKee

You’re delusional.
If North Korea wanted to send their best tropps to Ukraine, why didn’t they do that 2 years ago ? If it wre that important to them, they’d have done it then when it would have made a far larger difference. AS it is, this is nothing more than a transaction of convenience/desperation as the article states.
If this were a school playground and we were picking sides for a football match, I guarantee you that the North Korean military would be the absolute last pick.
And how do you know that “0 01” is indeed a “he” ? I have some recollection you may be wrong there. I guess you just know – or think you know.

Michael Cazaly
Michael Cazaly
22 days ago

“apparently planning”, presumably like Iraq apparently had WMD…

Martin M
Martin M
21 days ago
Reply to  Michael Cazaly

I’m pretty sure Russia has WMD.

Michael Cazaly
Michael Cazaly
21 days ago
Reply to  Martin M

No doubt on that…but the article is about North Korean troops being used in Ukraine, which I very much doubt. If Western “intelligence services” say it’s true, it’s probably just propaganda, rather like the MI5 guy saying Russia is going to cause mayhem in Britain. The only noticeable mayhem has been by fundamental Islamists, and it is worth recalling that Russia helped the USA in its “fight against Al Qaeda after 911.

Martin M
Martin M
19 days ago
Reply to  Michael Cazaly

Shouldn’t be too hard to find out. If there are North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, Ukraine is bound to kill the odd one here and there. Those dead soldiers are likely to have something linking them to Korea on their persons.

Nell Clover
Nell Clover
22 days ago

The only thing threatening our democracies isn’t a global authoritarian axis of evil but our homegrown technocratic streaks of p*ss.

Hunky Dory
Hunky Dory
22 days ago

Offer those soldiers $5,000 apiece, a full meal and help with repatriation to South Korea and they’ll desert in a second.

Jürg Gassmann
Jürg Gassmann
22 days ago

OMG! It’ll be WMD next!

Jürg Gassmann
Jürg Gassmann
22 days ago

You might just want to cross-refer here:
div > h1 > a”>A Russia–North Korea Alliance in the Works? Don’t Be So Sure
A juicy extract from the above (highlighted in the article to boot):

The U.S. should be mounting major information operations against Russia, China, and North Korea to highlight their differences and fuel distrust among them.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
21 days ago

I think that the author of this essay is conflating two different theses, one of which doesn’t really support the other.

The point that he actually spends most of his time arguing (successfully, IMO) is that Putin’s Russia is a lot weaker than it seemed a few years ago. For what it’s worth, I’ve argued the same thing at my own blog – for instance in this article, written shortly after the failed Wagner mutiny last year. (And if the extremely slow and costly progress of the Ukraine War hasn’t convinced you that Putin’s national revival program was a failure, then his inability to control his own mercenaries definitely should).

https://twilightpatriot.substack.com/p/a-failed-bismarck-and-his-barbarians

However, I don’t think that, just because one has shown that “Putin’s Russia is Weak” it necessarily follows that “The “Axis of Evil is a Fantasy.” Weak countries can still be part of serious alliance systems (cf. Italy in WWII), and right now, Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have realized that they have a common interest in ending American global hegemony, and they are cooperating towards that goal.