It’s a rainy Saturday afternoon in North Yorkshire, and Rishi Sunak is trying to reassure the North Yorkshire Conservative Association gathered on his front lawn that all is not lost. Sheltered under a marquee, he’s like a cruise-ship crooner entertaining a ballroom full of pensioners: “Time is on our side,” he says to his audience, alluding to the discord beyond the rolling hills of Northallerton. “Eighteen months is a long time to turn things around.” After few words of reassurance, the raffle is announced with a sense of relief. A full 13 years of Tory rule have passed, and, amid the boozy, forgetful haze of the slow afternoon, the Sunaks’ garden party is mourning the decline of the modern British Conservative Party.
The by-election in Selby and Ainsty, 50 miles south of Sunak’s estate, is part of the reason why. Mention it to the attendees and they grimace. On Thursday, Labour will have a chance to overturn a 20,000 majority and lay the first meaningful stone in the path to a Tory electoral apocalypse. Two weeks ago, the race was compared to a coin toss. But since then, a great pilgrimage of shadow ministers and Labour activists has flooded the Yorkshire town, hoping to pull off the second-largest swing to Labour in electoral history. This would be the sort of decisive victory not seen in Selby since the days of the English Civil War, when a Royalist rout spelled the end of King Charles I’s rule in the North. The bookies now have them as favourites to win.
Selby, however, as both Labour and Conservative canvassers confess, is a “weird constituency”. It takes in pockets of poverty and comfortable Country Life villages. It is an area of contrasts and contradictions: a beautiful Norman Abbey within a stone’s throw of a high street garlanded with vape shops; a commuter belt to Leeds and York in the former industrial heartland once home to the most productive coal mine in Europe. A place where three-quarters of homes are owner-occupied, but the housing shortage and mortgage-rate crisis now make home ownership both untenable and undesirable. A place where you can find all of England’s problems and convince no one of their solutions.
For both parties, this is not just a by-election, but a chance to war game electoral machines for 2024. Labour see it as a zone of reckoning for a country fed up with Tory rule, and a chance to lay the ghost of Jeremy Corbyn to rest after their vote dropped here by 9.6% in 2019. The local Tory wisdom — and ready defence — is that if they lose the seat, it will be because their vote stays at home. But outside of the two major parties, Selby is also a place where we can observe, in the form of political rebels and strays, the two unresolved forces of British electoral politics: the disbelief in the power of politics to change things, and a hatred of Westminster.
Nothing sums up the latter like the circumstances which led to the by-election. The stroppy resignation of Nigel Adams — a Johnson lackey who departed after failing to get a peerage — “has pissed everyone off”, as one Tory put it. The constituents aren’t impressed either. “Good riddance, you shocking grifter,” read one of the kinder comments on a farewell post. The legacy of Adams, further tainted by his temporal association with the other more sleaze-orientated by-elections, has only contributed to a broad cynicism towards Westminster. Adams himself is now regarded as a political morality tale in the pubs of Selby: the local lad who went to London and got lost in its web in his pursuit of patronage.
The Conservative candidate, lawyer and councillor Claire Holmes, seems eager to bridge that gap by talking up her “local connections”. But she already appears to have misread the mood of the constituency on housing. There’s only so much she can say about the mortgage woes other than repeating the promise to cut inflation, but her pledge to protect “green spaces from inappropriate housing” was regarded as tone deaf in a constituency that can no longer rely on Nimbyism to form a winning coalition of voters. It was this comment that spurred a number of younger local Tories to abandon her campaign — “the sort of lazy politics that will stop anyone under 50 from voting for us”, as one senior councillor put it.
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SubscribeThanks to Fred Skulthorp for a very enjoyable analysis of the up-coming by-election. As a Scot, it is depressing to read that Selby folk are being told that the solution to their problems is yet another stratum of politicians. In Scotland, we managed to get rid of one stratum, the Regional Councils, but, shortly after, a new stratum of politicians, the Scottish Parliament, was resuscitated. That gave us gender self-ID, an unworkable bottle deposit return scheme and a fleet of ferries that is not nearly as functional as the Spanish Armada.
The alternative to local government is more power to Westminster and more candidates picked from the political class such as Keir Mather. This works for the south-east but has not worked for anywhere else in the UK for 40 years.
I totally accept the points that you make. But, to harp on about the Scottish example,the Scottish government has approximately 20% more per capita to spend on health and education compared to England, yet outcomes on the significant metrics are worse than in England. Somehow, our extra tier of Government manages to do less with more. An extra layer of politicians is, in itself, not a silver bullet.
I think you meant to say NOT a silver bullet – in which case, I agree!
I have now edited in the missing “not”. Thanks.
I have now edited in the missing “not”. Thanks.
I think you meant to say NOT a silver bullet – in which case, I agree!
Why does it work for the South East? Bit of a generalisation wouldn’t you say? We’re not all bien-pensant tofu eaters and investment bankers you know!
I totally accept the points that you make. But, to harp on about the Scottish example,the Scottish government has approximately 20% more per capita to spend on health and education compared to England, yet outcomes on the significant metrics are worse than in England. Somehow, our extra tier of Government manages to do less with more. An extra layer of politicians is, in itself, not a silver bullet.
Why does it work for the South East? Bit of a generalisation wouldn’t you say? We’re not all bien-pensant tofu eaters and investment bankers you know!
Well said. The notion that Labour is the answer to the Tories is analogous to the late Victorian view of heroin as a response to morphine. But in a two party system this is what you get – ossification, corruption and drift – drift, usually, in the direction of whichever side is culturally dominant among the chattering classes. These days, unfortunately, it’s the left.
More broadly, the author’s view of voting intentions applies everywhere. The straws in the wind suggest a cataclysmic failure of the Conservative party. But this leads to the really interesting point: Labour never really “wins” elections; the Tories just lose them – more or less catastrophically. This one is going to be bad, so bad that it might finish the party altogether. It takes a rare degree of Conservative incompetence to fall so completely between two stools, but look at the past few years.
Cameron takes years to move the Tories to the centre (hiring all sorts of wets as candidates) before, in a fit of arrogance, stiffing the Liberals with a referendum promise. The Libs are duly stiffed but then Cameron has a problem: the referendum. This he leaves to Osborne, who runs a negative campaign and fluffs it. Then Cameron flounces out. Johnson ducks and runs, May steps in, falls flat on her face and ends in a mess. Only Corbyn rescues the Tories after that. Johnson then well and truly destroys the party with lockdown, high tax and unprecedented levels of migration. As a result the Tory party has alienated Brexiteers, Europhiles, wets, dries, nationalists, free marketeers and – of course – the floating vote. They deserve to implode. The sad thing is that we don’t deserve the result of their implosion: a victory for even worse administration.
“The sad thing is that we don’t deserve the result of their implosion: a victory for even worse administration.”
Labour won’t last 13 years. The red tories will implode long before that.
They certainly don’t deserve to last thirteen years – but, thanks to their insurance policies of mass immigration and “multiculturalism”, they have more or less gerrymandered the whole country for the foreseeable future. This is the problem. Were we in the relatively luxuriant predicament of 97, your words might offer some hope – the economy was buoyant, centre-right ideas prevailed in many areas and the world was sane. None of this applies today. Today, I fear, Labour is the immediate gateway to unprecedented darkness in the history of modern Britain. Hence, even in their spineless, empty, grifting mediocrity, the contemptible “Tories” are the better option. Let us hold our noses and avoid the precipice.
“Labour is the immediate gateway to unprecedented darkness in the history of modern Britain.”
Quite so! A couple of months ago the BBC reported (with a tangible sense of glee) that Whites in the UK would become a minority (i.e. less than 50% of the UK population) by 2050, possibly sooner. The Labour Party deserves some credit for investing (multiculturalism, diversity, inclusion, immigration, etc.) in its longer term, future prospects in power!
The BBC are wrong with their forecast. It is easily checked. Why do the BBC persist in telling falsies, whether it be politics, population or planet weather.
The BBC are wrong with their forecast. It is easily checked. Why do the BBC persist in telling falsies, whether it be politics, population or planet weather.
“Labour is the immediate gateway to unprecedented darkness in the history of modern Britain.”
Quite so! A couple of months ago the BBC reported (with a tangible sense of glee) that Whites in the UK would become a minority (i.e. less than 50% of the UK population) by 2050, possibly sooner. The Labour Party deserves some credit for investing (multiculturalism, diversity, inclusion, immigration, etc.) in its longer term, future prospects in power!
They certainly don’t deserve to last thirteen years – but, thanks to their insurance policies of mass immigration and “multiculturalism”, they have more or less gerrymandered the whole country for the foreseeable future. This is the problem. Were we in the relatively luxuriant predicament of 97, your words might offer some hope – the economy was buoyant, centre-right ideas prevailed in many areas and the world was sane. None of this applies today. Today, I fear, Labour is the immediate gateway to unprecedented darkness in the history of modern Britain. Hence, even in their spineless, empty, grifting mediocrity, the contemptible “Tories” are the better option. Let us hold our noses and avoid the precipice.
Your post is a great summary of recent UK politics. I just cannot imagine anyone producing a better summing-up in less than 300 words.
Many thanks. Your thumbnail sketch of Scotland today was hugely informative. I’m bound to say that under the continual pressure of the hard left’s idiotic hectoring, we on the right (or in the centre, or on the moderate left – I don’t wish to presume) are at least getting our thoughts in order. Perhaps this is the prelude to a period of successful counter attack.
Many thanks. Your thumbnail sketch of Scotland today was hugely informative. I’m bound to say that under the continual pressure of the hard left’s idiotic hectoring, we on the right (or in the centre, or on the moderate left – I don’t wish to presume) are at least getting our thoughts in order. Perhaps this is the prelude to a period of successful counter attack.
Hear hear – what a sh*tshow!
“The sad thing is that we don’t deserve the result of their implosion: a victory for even worse administration.”
Labour won’t last 13 years. The red tories will implode long before that.
Your post is a great summary of recent UK politics. I just cannot imagine anyone producing a better summing-up in less than 300 words.
Hear hear – what a sh*tshow!
I’m in Wales.
All I can say is –
1. Think of the worst example of a local council you can imagine, obsessed with their own status and intoxicated with their power in their little fiefdom and all of them blinkered to any opinion or evidence outside their little world and their personal agenda and pet projects.
2. Then give them even more power and a lot of money (with no second chamber to act as a check or balance).
Government can’t solve the problem. Government is the problem
The alternative to local government is more power to Westminster and more candidates picked from the political class such as Keir Mather. This works for the south-east but has not worked for anywhere else in the UK for 40 years.
Well said. The notion that Labour is the answer to the Tories is analogous to the late Victorian view of heroin as a response to morphine. But in a two party system this is what you get – ossification, corruption and drift – drift, usually, in the direction of whichever side is culturally dominant among the chattering classes. These days, unfortunately, it’s the left.
More broadly, the author’s view of voting intentions applies everywhere. The straws in the wind suggest a cataclysmic failure of the Conservative party. But this leads to the really interesting point: Labour never really “wins” elections; the Tories just lose them – more or less catastrophically. This one is going to be bad, so bad that it might finish the party altogether. It takes a rare degree of Conservative incompetence to fall so completely between two stools, but look at the past few years.
Cameron takes years to move the Tories to the centre (hiring all sorts of wets as candidates) before, in a fit of arrogance, stiffing the Liberals with a referendum promise. The Libs are duly stiffed but then Cameron has a problem: the referendum. This he leaves to Osborne, who runs a negative campaign and fluffs it. Then Cameron flounces out. Johnson ducks and runs, May steps in, falls flat on her face and ends in a mess. Only Corbyn rescues the Tories after that. Johnson then well and truly destroys the party with lockdown, high tax and unprecedented levels of migration. As a result the Tory party has alienated Brexiteers, Europhiles, wets, dries, nationalists, free marketeers and – of course – the floating vote. They deserve to implode. The sad thing is that we don’t deserve the result of their implosion: a victory for even worse administration.
I’m in Wales.
All I can say is –
1. Think of the worst example of a local council you can imagine, obsessed with their own status and intoxicated with their power in their little fiefdom and all of them blinkered to any opinion or evidence outside their little world and their personal agenda and pet projects.
2. Then give them even more power and a lot of money (with no second chamber to act as a check or balance).
Government can’t solve the problem. Government is the problem
Thanks to Fred Skulthorp for a very enjoyable analysis of the up-coming by-election. As a Scot, it is depressing to read that Selby folk are being told that the solution to their problems is yet another stratum of politicians. In Scotland, we managed to get rid of one stratum, the Regional Councils, but, shortly after, a new stratum of politicians, the Scottish Parliament, was resuscitated. That gave us gender self-ID, an unworkable bottle deposit return scheme and a fleet of ferries that is not nearly as functional as the Spanish Armada.
Of course all parties are guilty of this, but have Labour appear to have learned nothing – their candidate is a cookie cutter embryo-politico of the sort 99.9% of Britons despise. Yet off he goes, la-la-la we’re sticking our fingers in our ears.
I’m increasingly of the view nobody under 30 should be allowed to stand for Parliament, with the added rider they should actually have a CV with non-political jobs on it.
I’d go further.
No-one with a degree from Oxford should be allowed to be an MP.
Oh dear…..
I’m 65 and a bit bored at the moment (like Joan Collins was pre-UKIP) and was wondering what to do at 65.
But I’ve got an Oxford degree, so I guess that rules me out.
Luckily, I’ve got another idea for a hedgehog sanctuary which may come off.
To be fair, hedgehogs are perfectly deserving creatures Mike.
Definitely help the hedgehogs
To be fair, hedgehogs are perfectly deserving creatures Mike.
Definitely help the hedgehogs
or pointy corfam shoes, poly draylon suits, white drip dry shirts, neoprene ties…. and beards
Oh dear…..
I’m 65 and a bit bored at the moment (like Joan Collins was pre-UKIP) and was wondering what to do at 65.
But I’ve got an Oxford degree, so I guess that rules me out.
Luckily, I’ve got another idea for a hedgehog sanctuary which may come off.
or pointy corfam shoes, poly draylon suits, white drip dry shirts, neoprene ties…. and beards
I’d go further.
No-one with a degree from Oxford should be allowed to be an MP.
Of course all parties are guilty of this, but have Labour appear to have learned nothing – their candidate is a cookie cutter embryo-politico of the sort 99.9% of Britons despise. Yet off he goes, la-la-la we’re sticking our fingers in our ears.
I’m increasingly of the view nobody under 30 should be allowed to stand for Parliament, with the added rider they should actually have a CV with non-political jobs on it.
Politicians do have the power post Brexit. They are simply unprepared to be both responsible and accountable. Deficit of leadership.
Politicians do have the power post Brexit. They are simply unprepared to be both responsible and accountable. Deficit of leadership.
Alas the feeling of powerlessness regardless of where one lives in the country is all too pervasive. At the moment it is the cause of apathy with a complete lack of trust in our politicians. Labour will win this by-election and the next GE by a landslide, but it will be the least enthusiastic one in history. When Labour inevitably fail, what then?
I live in a Con / Lib Dem marginal which is almost certainly going Lib Dem at the next GE. I’m mentally prepared for it – 20mph speed limits, 15 minute cities, Green zealotry and all the rest of it, but many of my smug Range Rover owning, Remainer-voting neighbours are not. Ha ha ha!
I’m also moving somewhere less smug, prosperous and hypocritical. Like Poland.
As South Park accurately observed, electric vehicles create enormous clouds of toxic smug.
As South Park accurately observed, electric vehicles create enormous clouds of toxic smug.
I live in a Con / Lib Dem marginal which is almost certainly going Lib Dem at the next GE. I’m mentally prepared for it – 20mph speed limits, 15 minute cities, Green zealotry and all the rest of it, but many of my smug Range Rover owning, Remainer-voting neighbours are not. Ha ha ha!
I’m also moving somewhere less smug, prosperous and hypocritical. Like Poland.
Alas the feeling of powerlessness regardless of where one lives in the country is all too pervasive. At the moment it is the cause of apathy with a complete lack of trust in our politicians. Labour will win this by-election and the next GE by a landslide, but it will be the least enthusiastic one in history. When Labour inevitably fail, what then?
“Modern politicians have no power or control over the real decisions.” There it is in a nutshell. The machinery of democratically derived power has been thoroughly captured. We can argue about whether it’s by capital or the woke blob but it’s hard to see how we’ll ever get back government working on behalf of ordinary people. Without something snapping first.
“Modern politicians have no power or control over the real decisions.” There it is in a nutshell. The machinery of democratically derived power has been thoroughly captured. We can argue about whether it’s by capital or the woke blob but it’s hard to see how we’ll ever get back government working on behalf of ordinary people. Without something snapping first.
Exactly what my MP said to me on the doorstep during the local elections. She’s an important Secretary of State, and was accompanying the local Tory hopeful (he lost). “Rishi’s aware of your concerns, and is on the case…”.
That’s great, but the Conservatives have been in power for 13 years and have a big majority. There is a pervasive sense that the country is drifting into anarchic irrelevance. More importantly, we are facing unprecedented demographic change about which we were not consulted, and which we are being “encouraged” not to question. Something tells me that we need to look a bit deeper than the choice between the usual candidates.
Exactly what my MP said to me on the doorstep during the local elections. She’s an important Secretary of State, and was accompanying the local Tory hopeful (he lost). “Rishi’s aware of your concerns, and is on the case…”.
That’s great, but the Conservatives have been in power for 13 years and have a big majority. There is a pervasive sense that the country is drifting into anarchic irrelevance. More importantly, we are facing unprecedented demographic change about which we were not consulted, and which we are being “encouraged” not to question. Something tells me that we need to look a bit deeper than the choice between the usual candidates.
An interesting survey of the issues in the by-election. The comment about Starmer “seizing” power was pretty bizarre however!
An interesting survey of the issues in the by-election. The comment about Starmer “seizing” power was pretty bizarre however!
A good if depressing article. The electorate are now aware that our political system – the post 97 New Order – is both anti democratic and now exposed as in rapid descent. The gear stick is broken. De-centralising is yet another rubbish Brownite scam, only adding another layer of poor SNP style apparatnik to the mix. Eventually we will realise that the UK has tipped over into a perma Socialist, Progressive Big State tax with key powers held by the Higher Force of unelected judges Quangocrats & Blobs. Until someone can see who, what and how a System constructed outside of and above the democratic process can be challenged (80 seat maj is not enough) we must just reconcile ourselves to our impotence .and wait for the inevitable…
A good if depressing article. The electorate are now aware that our political system – the post 97 New Order – is both anti democratic and now exposed as in rapid descent. The gear stick is broken. De-centralising is yet another rubbish Brownite scam, only adding another layer of poor SNP style apparatnik to the mix. Eventually we will realise that the UK has tipped over into a perma Socialist, Progressive Big State tax with key powers held by the Higher Force of unelected judges Quangocrats & Blobs. Until someone can see who, what and how a System constructed outside of and above the democratic process can be challenged (80 seat maj is not enough) we must just reconcile ourselves to our impotence .and wait for the inevitable…
Should have a candidate called Mugab e by gum?
No.
No.
Should have a candidate called Mugab e by gum?
Keir Mather took his BA in 2019, he took a master’s degree in 2021, he was Wes Streeting’s researcher for a while, and he now rejoices to be the Senior Public Affairs Advisor to the Confederation of British Industry. Quite apart from making one wonder what babe in arms must be the Junior Public Affairs Advisor, the CBI really is the last, and indeed the current, entry on the Curriculum Vitae of this person who is apparently so outstanding that he is presented as a potential Member of Parliament at the age of 25. The Labour Party is in no position to mock the elevation of Charlotte Owen to the peerage. I am. You are. But it is not.
Keir Mather took his BA in 2019, he took a master’s degree in 2021, he was Wes Streeting’s researcher for a while, and he now rejoices to be the Senior Public Affairs Advisor to the Confederation of British Industry. Quite apart from making one wonder what babe in arms must be the Junior Public Affairs Advisor, the CBI really is the last, and indeed the current, entry on the Curriculum Vitae of this person who is apparently so outstanding that he is presented as a potential Member of Parliament at the age of 25. The Labour Party is in no position to mock the elevation of Charlotte Owen to the peerage. I am. You are. But it is not.
Labour getting cocky putting up Private Pike. Huw Edwards likes stupid boys. Shame he can’t publicly endorse him. Privately however…
Labour getting cocky putting up Private Pike. Huw Edwards likes stupid boys. Shame he can’t publicly endorse him. Privately however…