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Ohio and the battle for populist America Trump and Biden are both liabilities here

JD Vance: "an ass-kisser, not an ass-kicker" (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

JD Vance: "an ass-kisser, not an ass-kicker" (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)


October 18, 2022   4 mins

This midterm year, in which many states have to choose between non-entities and the certifiably insane, Ohio is blessed by a real political dogfight. The Senate battle between representative Tim Ryan and Hillbilly Elegy author, JD Vance, is becoming one for the ages.

At issue is the very nature of populism. The 38-year-old Vance, a Republican who emerged from Appalachian poverty to serve in the Marines and attend Yale Law School, epitomises the grassroots radicalism of the Scots-Irish in America: anti-elitist, culturally conservative, sceptical toward draconian climate policies and hostile toward China. Ryan, after 20 years as the Democratic representative from the former industrial stronghold of Northeast Ohio, touts a more traditional, pro-union, but also firmly anti-globalist politics.

The state’s size, and its location in the politically volatile Midwest, render it a critical battleground. Ohio is home to 11 million people, making it the seventh largest state in the union. It has all the basic components of 21st-century America: challenged, largely minority cities such as Cleveland and Toledo, relatively prosperous Cincinnati, an emerging boom town in Columbus (the university town that also serves as state capital), and a vast array of rural towns and villages.

Ohio may no longer be the decisive “bellwether” of America — it has been trending Republican for over a decade — but it is still a competitive state. Veteran political scientist Herb Asher notes that despite its GOP leanings, Ohio remains open for Democratic challengers in a way that is hard to imagine in deep-red states such as Texas. In Ohio, successful Democrats are not gentry types like California Governor Gavin Newsom, but hard-bitten, pro-working class New Dealers like Senator Sherrod Brown. Ryan is cut from much the same cloth. At a time of heated polarisation, he has cast himself as a folksy, open-minded family man who puts country over party.

To his credit, Ryan has been willing, at least on the campaign trail, to declare his independence from Democratic orthodoxy. He has supported fracking and opposed Joe Biden’s student-loan forgiveness scheme. He has praised Trump’s protectionism and opposition to China. He does not much appeal to the tech-and-finance elites who now dominate the Democratic Party — one reason, suggests Midwest scholar John Russo, that he has been slow to attract big donor money.

Vance, by contrast, is not a great candidate. On stage, the hillbilly turned intellectual and venture capitalist is rigid and off-putting — you would rather sink a couple of bourbons with Ryan. Even Vance’s populism seems less people-friendly than Ryan’s. Vance’s biggest blessing, and greatest curse, is Donald Trump, who carried Ohio twice, and whose endorsement saved Vance in a hard-fought Republican primary. Like many conservative intellectuals, Vance opposed Trump at first but then quickly cosied up to him after he won. Ryan has not hesitated to make hay of this about-face, saying that Ohio needs “an ass-kicker not an ass-kisser”.

The outcome of the race will depend on two swing demographics: working-class whites and suburbanites. According to Russo, the fall-out from the Supreme Court’s abortion decision, combined with the increasingly rancid stench of Trumpism, could alienate affluent suburban voters, particularly in burgeoning cities such as Columbus. “The middle-class suburban moderate voter is the key for Ryan,” Russo notes.

If the American economy were not experiencing massive inflation under a Democratic president, Ryan would most probably win. But, like other Democrats, he is haunted by the state of the economy under Joe Biden. Crime, on the rise in Ohio cities, is another vulnerability. Vance has also tried to score points by associating Ryan with Biden’s border policies, which the Congressman has criticised but not opposed. But perhaps the most effective Republican talking point is that Ryan has raised campaign funds from some of the biggest distributors of opioids — this in a state that has been devastated by the opioid epidemic. Yet here, too, Vance has his own skeletons in the form of a failed non-profit he set up to combat addiction.

Ultimately the decisive issue may turn out to be energy. Much of Ohio’s recent resurgence has relied on massive growth in the state’s natural gas sector, which has boomed as the vast Appalachian basin has increased production fivefold since 2010. This has proved not just a spur for direct employment, but has also attracted investment into the state. In 2020, Ohio gained more than four times the total investment than California. Perhaps the biggest boon has been Intel’s proposal to invest $20 billion in a new chip plant in the Columbus suburbs. And just this week, Honda and LG Energy Solutions announced a $4 billion car battery plant in another adjacent county.

Much of the credit for this growth must go to Republican Governor Mike DeWine, whom Democrat Asher describes as “a non-Trumpster”. He is on his way to a landslide re-election; this form of Republicanism — conservative but not crazy — has also characterised current Senator Rob Portman, a pragmatic Republican who in 2016 won 300,000 voters more than Trump could muster in the state. But DeWine also does not have Donald Trump on his back, and is not running against anyone as effective as Ryan.

Ryan’s key problem lies with the increasingly progressive, climate-obsessed Democratic Party. Even as he describes fracking as a “great opportunity” to blue-collar audiences, Ryan also supported Biden’s drilling moratorium and opposed legislation to deregulate the permitting process for oil and gas pipelines. He even embraced the anti-fossil fuel jihad of the Green New Deal.

If he loses, Ryan can thank the influence of these coastal, establishment initiatives. “Tim must deal with national Democrats who are a drag on his campaign,” Asher notes. “They are seen as anti-exploration and anti-pipeline. These positions are less popular here than in California.” Ryan’s riposte, labelling Vance a “San Francisco phoney” seems a bit desperate when hurled at someone who, after all, grew up in one of Ohio’s most hardscrabble communities, served in the Marines, and then chose to return to his home state. Ryan has to hope there’s not an early onset of the cold winter that will see much higher heating prices, further highlighting the energy issue.

Many working-class Democrats, notes long-time consultant Ruy Texeira, rightfully see the current green policies essentially as an abandonment of their interests and communities. But just as Vance can’t ditch Trump (who has been losing support in the state), Ryan is stuck with Pelosi, Schumer and Senator Bernie Sanders. Ryan’s earthy Left-populism may be appealing, but Biden’s standing in the state is about the same as in deep-red Texas. The winner in Ohio will be the candidate who can overcome the burden of their political affiliation — an indictment ultimately of both national parties, and their contemporary detachment from flyover America.


Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.

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Aaron James
Aaron James
2 years ago

This nonsense analysis comes from the sort of political writer who uses incendiary language like;

”combined with the increasingly rancid stench of Trumpism,

I mean, come on…..

MAGA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

and now

Ultra MAGA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

are going to take the Midterms and save America from certain Destruction at the hands of Biden’s Puppet Masters – the Globalist Psychopathic Overlords of Davos.

Matt Hindman
Matt Hindman
2 years ago
Reply to  Aaron James

It’s just another Kotkin article.

Ed Cameron
Ed Cameron
2 years ago
Reply to  Aaron James

To me, Mr Kotkin presents as an equal opportunity incendiary. On this site he’s often scorched the Democrats et al with hot words for presiding over the decline of cities.
And I could warm!!!!! my office!!!!! if it were possible to harness the white heat!!!! from some comments!!!!!

J Bryant
J Bryant
2 years ago
Reply to  Ed Cameron

I agree. Here on Unherd, Mr Kotkin has been highly critical of how the Democrats run his home state of California. He also published on Unherd what I consider to be one of the most astute articles about the upcoming US midterms.
The Republicans should be able to massively beat the Dems in the midterms but it appears unlikely that will happen mainly because of poor campaigning and even worse Republican senate candidates. As Mr. Kotkin noted, a beating in the midterms might be exactly what the Republicans need to focus their minds on a winning political platform in time for the 2024 election. I’d love to see the Dems take a beating in November but I’m not sure it’s going to happen.

James Stangl
James Stangl
2 years ago
Reply to  J Bryant

Kotkin might be critical of how the Dems have run California into the ground, but would he jump parties and vote against them? Not a chance. He bleats continually about “pragmatic,” moderate Republicans as the necessary foil to the dread ‘MAGA” wing, yet I strongly suspect he means Republicans who can be counted on to lose graciously to Democrats when necessary, and who have served as the ineffective flip side of the UniParty coin for waaaay too long. And I believe that Ryan is the “inon-orthodox” Dem who has called more than once for killing and confronting “MAGA” Republicans. There’s some unifying rhetoric there!

Ian Stewart
Ian Stewart
2 years ago
Reply to  Ed Cameron

Interesting idea – attach those with more trenchant views to a hamster wheel (of appropriate size of course) connected to the grid and then publish – and watch that electricity flow!

Last edited 2 years ago by Ian Stewart
Frank McCusker
Frank McCusker
2 years ago
Reply to  Aaron James

Nurse, one has escaped

Ian Stewart
Ian Stewart
2 years ago
Reply to  Frank McCusker

Care in the community?

B T
B T
2 years ago

Great piece!

Ryan might be the best Democrat running but the anti-working class party of the educated and activists is going to be his undoing.

It’s funny to think the Party of FDR, under a President calling himself the new FDR, is the Party that is so against the drillers and pipeliners and miners they’re losing Senators based on these working class voters leaving.

I would bet most TVA workers will vote Republican and cite the “new FDR” as their primary reason!

Last edited 2 years ago by B T
Peter Joy
Peter Joy
2 years ago

‘…combined with the increasingly rancid stench of Trumpism…’
You lost me there, pal. Your mask as an honest commentator fell right off your face. Next time, use better elastic. But no, you Democrats just can’t hep yourselves, can you? Anything to avoid admitting the foul reality staring you in the face.
There is an increasingly rancid stench in US politics, alright, but it’s of corrupt Bidenite-Clintonist neocon warmongering and race-baiting graft – weaponising the MSM, Big Tech and now even the US State against Biden’s political enemies.

Last edited 2 years ago by Peter Joy
Allison Barrows
Allison Barrows
2 years ago
Reply to  Peter Joy

*deeeeeep inhale* I loved the “stench” of energy independence.

Allison Barrows
Allison Barrows
2 years ago

Hey Joel, what do Democrats have to run on? Their violent, crime-ridden, open toilet cities? Their enthusiastic support for child sexual grooming and surgical mutilation? Their economic incompetence evident at every supermarket and gas pump? The reanimated corpse purported to lead a party with 200 years of racism as a platform? “Flyover country” sees it all and is grateful to remain invisible to your lot.

Steve Jolly
Steve Jolly
2 years ago

This points out the problems the Democrats face in middle America. Most of the policies that are championed by Democrats like the Green New Deal, defund the police, LGBTQ proselytizing, revisionist history, open borders, etc. are deeply unpopular to the point the only reliably Democratic states between the Rockies and the Appalachians are Minnesota and Illinois. The Democrats are deeply out of touch and will remain so as long as the party is controlled by Wall Street, Big Tech, and a bunch of Ivy League intellectuals. What the Dems need is someone to defeat the establishment and show them how fragile their control really is in the same way Trump did the Republicans. It will probably take a major defeat, maybe a Trump win in 2024, for that to happen.

Michael Coleman
Michael Coleman
2 years ago

you would rather sink a couple of bourbons with Ryan.”
Speak for yourself!
Vance is intelligent, authentic, and served while Ryan is a lifelong politician ameba and dimwit. He votes 100% with Pelosi but tries with media help to claim he is a moderate.
https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2022/10/10/tim-ryan-voting-100-with-biden-says-politicians-voting-100-with-their-party-huge-threat-to-democracy/
Tucker showed a video last night of Ryan telling an interviewer that he supported getting rid of cash bail (back when that was the Democrat rage).
Ryan will get run over on election day

Bryan Dale
Bryan Dale
2 years ago

This is the first time in a long while that anyone has written about Ohio being in contention. The writer seems to be living in a Democrat fantasy parallel universe.

Ian Stewart
Ian Stewart
2 years ago

Thanks for this. Reading so often, everywhere, about the extreme options currently available to American voters, this state sounds like it’s an election with relatively middle-ground candidates.

Last edited 2 years ago by Ian Stewart
James Sullivan
James Sullivan
2 years ago

The author is bang-on here. Ohio is a weird state, and neither party can rely on a solid majority. If you really want to hack off Ohioans, run like you’re somehow owed the seat because of your birth or your party – you will be trounced. Vance early on was making exactly that mistake, and now has a hard fight to beat out Ryan. What is saving Vance is that both candidates have significant problems of authenticity, and I don’t know very many Ohioans who are actually enthusiastic about either (yard signs among my neighbors are good barometer of enthusiasm, and only the most partisan of neighbors, who always have signs out, have bothered to put any out). I’m guessing Vance will squeak this one out, as he’s landed some good hits on Ryan’s own record and rhetoric (especially on crime) – but this is more a vote against the Left than for Vance.