Bournemouth promenade at sunset. Credit: Matthew Lloyd/Getty

“We got to the point where we had to say, look, we can’t live our lives in lockdown, we need to get on with it.” Charles Button, the 61-year-old owner of a family-run business of five Bournemouth guest houses is describing, in unvarnished terms, why he was so determined to reopen for business.
“On July the 15th we had no bookings. And that’s unusual – we usually start taking bookings in January or February. But we still managed to fill the rooms for most of July and August.”
“The tourists, they still come when the weather’s fine. No one ever complains. We had hand sanitizers at the front door and we just carried on… There’s some hotels making people bring their own sheets and all that sort of stuff. You know, that’s ridiculous.”
Bournemouth beach today is fairly busy, but the scene is a far cry from late June, when, as we tentatively edged out of lockdown, trains down from London disgorged thousands of day-trippers who fanned out along the hot sand like so many ants.
The culmination of two months of strict lockdown and that record-breaking heatwave produced behaviour which left zealous social-distancers apoplectic. Beachgoers were depicted as fecklessly risking the nation’s health for the sake of meretricious revelry.
Yet what followed was rather anti-climactic: there was no ‘second wave’ in Bournemouth, nor, aside from a few hotspots in the north and the midlands, anywhere else.
“There are some people that wouldn’t surprise me if they’re still in lockdown in 10 years’ time…” Button continues. “There’s a certain mentality, it’s just ridiculous. You can’t live like that.”
The lack of a second wave has allowed Bournemouth — along with most other seaside towns — to return to something resembling a pre-COVID-19 normality. And the priority for the hospitality industry has been to salvage what’s left of summer before the nights start drawing in and the weather turns crisp. Abundant sunshine in July and heavy discounts offered by the Government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme have left things looking more hopeful than they did earlier in the year. Bournemouth has seen a 23% rise in evening visitor numbers in early August compared to July — the biggest increase anywhere in the country. When I was in town, everything was booked out.
***
The cool northerly breeze along Bournemouth’s promenade disguises the strength of the late-summer sun. Seagulls zip noisily around over the pretty beach huts and children squeal around in sun hats. But another inevitability of the British seaside holiday is the unpredictability of the weather. I spent an entire day shuttered in the Elstead Hotel as Storm Francis battered the south coast. “The chief lie about beach holidays in photograph albums is that they only show the good-weather days,” wrote Ysenda Maxtone Graham in British Summertime Begins. The key to getting through these long and wet summer days, ameliorated somewhat in the internet age by the advent of smartphones, is “knowing how to sink into yourself”, as she puts it.
But with the advent of budget airlines, sojourns to the British seaside dwindled in popularity. Merriment was overshadowed with a gloomy penumbra of dilapidation and decline. “The high summer of the English holiday resort is over,” declared Bill Cormack in his 1998 book A History of Holidays: 1812-1990. And who would argue with that?
Bournemouth is relatively prosperous compared with many of Britain’s struggling seaside towns, which are some of the most deprived areas of the UK. I grew up 64 miles away, near Weston-Super-Mare, a town better known locally today for re-housing drug addicts than for seaside merriment. Parts of town really are no-go areas at night if you want to avoid getting your head kicked in. Further down the coast is Minehead in West Somerset – officially the worst district in England to grow up poor, coming a humiliating 326th out of 326 in the government’s social mobility index.
This is the relatively prosperous south of England. In the north, Blackpool has become a byword for squalor and deprivation. A couple of blocks away from the town’s famous Golden Mile, Edwardian hotels and boarding houses ruefully bear down on some of the poorest areas in England. Blackpool was described in 1789 as an ‘abode of health and amusement’. Nowadays, half the town’s population smokes and there is an off licencefor every 250 residents. During lockdown, Blackpool had the highest rate of unemployment benefit claimants in the country as the town’s tourism industry, which attracts £1.5 billion in visitor spend per year and employs many of the town’s residents, was completely shuttered.
Bournemouth attracts a different crowd from Blackpool; it doesn’t have the same louche and high camp atmosphere. You can still find the seaside crooners filling up antiquated music halls, but there are fewer Donald McGill-style postcards with their bawdy jokes about “newly-weds making fools of themselves on the hideous beds of seaside lodging houses,” as George Orwell put it.
Of course, Bournemouth attracts its share of stag-dos. My half-brother’s was here seven years ago, an inebriated affair during which the stag took the lines of a famous 1912 seaside music hall ditty to heart: Have you ever noticed when you’re by the sea/the things you can do there with impunity? I saw just one solitary stag party this time: a group of middle-aged men in dress shirts zipped past me one afternoon on a ‘Beer Bike’, a pedal-powered watering hole on wheels.
Part of Bournemouth’s trouble is its image problem. “Bournemouth has compared itself to Blackpool and Brighton, right? But we’re trying to change that and say, look guys you should start comparing yourself to the south of France or California,” says Andy Lennox who runs two Zim Braai restaurants in Bournemouth, and who also founded The Wonky Table, a network of around 500 local hospitality firms.
Some will sneer at Lennox’s enthusiasm for Bournemouth; there’s peculiar prejudice common in some quarters of Britain which assumes that foreign automatically equals superior. Yet there is no reason France or Italy should produce an innately better vacation than the south coast of England, pace the vagaries of our climate. Holidaying in Britain can be just as pleasant as jetting off to Bordeaux or Tuscany, providing you’re not hamstrung by haughty disdain for your fellow countrymen.
With international travel pretty much off the agenda for the foreseeable future, and with the Government encouraging ‘staycations’, the next 12 to 18 months represent a once in a generation opportunity to reverse a decades-long decline in places such as Bournemouth, Blackpool and Morecambe. Global passenger traffic is not expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, according to airline industry organisations.
But first, these towns need to survive the coming months. “It’s going to be a very, very tough winter,” says Lennox. “Anybody who’s a good operator right now is sitting there going, ‘Okay cool, batten down the hatches and wait for what’s coming’.”
During the colder months, targeted Government support for seaside industries will be needed more than ever. The Eat Out to Help Out scheme was a great success, says Lennox. And it did manage to assuage some of the financial losses experienced by the hospitality sector during the initial stages of lockdown, when around 80% of firms closed their doors and about 1.4 million workers were furloughed.
“It’s been the most effective campaign the Government has ever done,” he says. “They’ve galvanised an industry by pumping £500 million in, but they’re also getting the tax returns off the back of that as well. They’re also going to potentially get more companies returning quicker to a profit, which will increase corporation tax.”
A policy that was portentously dismissed by the Guardian less than a month ago as “junk… served up by a politician who should know much better” has generated restaurant footfall that is 17% up on the same period last year. Lennox now wants it extended for October and November, the “quietest time of the year”.
But as well as largesse from the Chancellor, towns like Bournemouth will need visitors. Indeed, perhaps the events of this year will open more people’s eyes to the abundance of possibility not contingent on an annoyance-ridden trip overseas. Lamenting a lost summer when we are surrounded by 7,723 miles of handsome coastline seems at best myopic and not a little ignorant: nobody in Britain is ever more than a couple of hours drive away from a beach of some sort.
***
Out on Bournemouth beach four hulking cruise ships are perched, immobile, on the horizon. According to locals, it is cheaper for cruise operators to moor these moribund vessels here than 25 miles away in Southampton. Cruise ships were mothballed in March and are unlikely to return to service until some point next year. Strangely beautiful by dint of their size, at night the ships shine like strings of fairy lights across the murky water.
Their presence feels rather symbolic. They represent travel in all its liberating potential, a prospect tantalisingly out of reach as a pandemic hems us in.
But as with the lockdown, this unexpected constriction can suffocate you — or encourage you to find pleasure in the small worlds whose enjoyments you may previously have neglected or overlooked. British life, and the British seaside in particular, is brimming with many such ordinary pleasures: the carousels and shabby Edwardian shelters, the soggy fish and chips, the sticks of luminous rock, the ice cream parlours, the slot machines, the Regency facades, the exhilarating range of candy flosses.
In the words of Albert Camus – who understood better than many Anglo-intellectuals the enjoyment to be found in a simple, unpretentious life – we should perhaps view our current predicament as “a lucid invitation to live and to create in the very midst of the desert”.
I head back out to the beach to catch the last of the late summer sun. Sitting in a deck chair, I take a look around: a young boy delights in what is obviously a first taste of ice cream. The froth from the incoming tide splashes across a woman’s picnic; she doesn’t notice, or doesn’t care.
Over the course of the past six months it has at times felt as though the world were on fire, with the progress of past decades slowly but inexorably turning to ashes. But right now, in the warming light of the mid-afternoon sun, nobody has a care in the world.
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SubscribeDon’t you ever wonder what the Ukrainian civilians are thinking?
I watch all sort of News programmes on the TV and I learned yesterday that Zelensky’s government had lost five advisers in his intimate circle and a similar number in administrations throughout the country. That doesn’t sound to me as if the war has full support amongst the civilian population.
But how can we tell when we are only given one side. You have an open forum but there is no open forum in the MSM
You mean those that were sacked due to corruption?
Brave Ukrainians will fight to the last man or woman. Rather dead than red.
Well, the 10m Russians in Ukraine certainly don’t support Zelensky.
And based on the videos I’ve seen of forced conscription at gunpoint in Zakarpattia, neither do the Hungarians there.
You mean those that were sacked due to corruption?
Brave Ukrainians will fight to the last man or woman. Rather dead than red.
Well, the 10m Russians in Ukraine certainly don’t support Zelensky.
And based on the videos I’ve seen of forced conscription at gunpoint in Zakarpattia, neither do the Hungarians there.
Don’t you ever wonder what the Ukrainian civilians are thinking?
I watch all sort of News programmes on the TV and I learned yesterday that Zelensky’s government had lost five advisers in his intimate circle and a similar number in administrations throughout the country. That doesn’t sound to me as if the war has full support amongst the civilian population.
But how can we tell when we are only given one side. You have an open forum but there is no open forum in the MSM
Ukraine had more than 2,500 tanks at the beginning of the “Special military operation”. They have all been destroyed by the Russians. Why should a hundred (or even more) miscellanous NATO tanks make any difference to the outcome? The Russians will surely destroy them too. At most they can only delay Russian victory. But most likely, these tanks will not even reach the battlefront until the war is over – if then.
Ukraine had more than 2,500 tanks at the beginning of the “Special military operation”. They have all been destroyed by the Russians. Why should a hundred (or even more) miscellanous NATO tanks make any difference to the outcome? The Russians will surely destroy them too. At most they can only delay Russian victory. But most likely, these tanks will not even reach the battlefront until the war is over – if then.
I claim no expertise, but if the Russians are using human wave attacks by poorly trained and ill-equipped troops then their casualty rate is likely to be far high than that experienced by the defenders.
One question I have is “Has the casualty rate experienced by both sides changed over the course of the war?” This may seem a ghoulish question but it surely has some significance for the final outcome – Even the Russians run out of cannon fodder eventually.
Its not the numbers that matter. Its the percentage of available forces lost. The Russian can loose 3 or 4 times more than the Ukrainians and still win. There’s talk of mobilization of another 200,000 Russians. There comes a point where the Ukrainians don’t have the numbers to defend the current line and have to retreat. Similar to Grant’s campaign in the East in 1864-65. If the war continues as a battle of attrition the Russians win because they have a greater population and huge amount of equipment in storage. That’s why the supply of western tanks is so vital. It turns an attrition conflict, which favors Russia, into a manoeuvre conflict, which favors Ukraine.
Is that still the case where an offensive force is considered? I can see that from the point of view of defensive position but at some point during a war of aggression numbers will have a greater psychological impact.
Bad analogy. But going in the right direction.
Grant had an overall four-to-one superiority in manpower in 1864. And that was only possible because of three years of attrition warfare.
Remember, the South could only recruit from a free population of 4 million, while the North had 20 million.
Ukraine is a third the population of Russia, but with a million already under arms.
Even with another call-up, Russia will have only a marginal superiority–and now, a clear qualitative inferiority.
“huge amount of equipment in storage” most of which is inoperable as they are discovering. Parts sold year ago.
Cope and seethe.
The Russians are managing the manufacturing side of things far far better that the West, which relies too heavily on over-engineered pap that looks good in a brochure and gives huge profits to corporations but that when asked to scale up, takes years.
When did you last hear of the much-vaunted switchblade ? The companys website looks amazing. But operationally, in theatre, it’s total junk.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare/
Cope and seethe.
The Russians are managing the manufacturing side of things far far better that the West, which relies too heavily on over-engineered pap that looks good in a brochure and gives huge profits to corporations but that when asked to scale up, takes years.
When did you last hear of the much-vaunted switchblade ? The companys website looks amazing. But operationally, in theatre, it’s total junk.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare/
This is true, but how many men can Russia throw into the meat grinder before it starts to cause unrest? It’s one thing using prisoners and peasants from Siberia and the Caucuses as cannon fodder, it’s quite different when you start mobilising large numbers from Moscow and St Petersburg
Because this isn’t what the Russians are doing, you’ll wait forever for the unrest you seem to be expecting any minute now.
Check your assumptions and then the world starts to make more sense.
Because this isn’t what the Russians are doing, you’ll wait forever for the unrest you seem to be expecting any minute now.
Check your assumptions and then the world starts to make more sense.
The Ukrainians do not have a manpower issue. They’ve up to a 1million mobilised or trained/training. The Russians can deploy more of course if they further enforce conscription, but they haven’t got the Ukrainian’s anywhere near a reinforcements problem. Nor is this likely. Russia may have the theoretical manpower but can’t sustain heavy losses without victories without morale collapsing and risk of social unrest. They already have a ‘go-forward’ problem.
Of course that doesn’t mean losses aren’t tragic and desperate, but one Ukrainian soldier is proving worth a good number of Russians . Fighting on your home soil against a known barbarous invader a force multiplier.
Why have the lessons of Vietnam, Afghanistan etc still not been learned – even of Russia (invaded by the Germans). Cause a country enough grief and they will NEVER back down – the Kurds -still fighting and will forever etc etc. Learning history, repeating blah blah – the imbecility of psychopathic tyrants and the gormless commoners who let them have their way , blah blah – and round and round we go. I guess this is why the Yanks hang onto their guns – it is kinda making more sense these days…………….thought i would never say that !!!!
Difficult to work out what you trying to convey there CS, apols.
But as regards ‘lessons’ I think the v evident lesson demonstrated is NATO/US doesn’t have ‘boots on the ground’. It’s responded to a unified well led population that wants to fight, and fight hard against an invader by arming them and probiding intelligence. That’s quite a different approach. That was much less the case in Vietnam and Afghan. The Tet offensive in 68 showed how riddled S Vietnam was with Vietgong infiltration and supporters of the North. That’s v clearly not the case in Ukraine.
We have been much smarter this time.
Difficult to work out what you trying to convey there CS, apols.
But as regards ‘lessons’ I think the v evident lesson demonstrated is NATO/US doesn’t have ‘boots on the ground’. It’s responded to a unified well led population that wants to fight, and fight hard against an invader by arming them and probiding intelligence. That’s quite a different approach. That was much less the case in Vietnam and Afghan. The Tet offensive in 68 showed how riddled S Vietnam was with Vietgong infiltration and supporters of the North. That’s v clearly not the case in Ukraine.
We have been much smarter this time.
Probably the biggest load of garbage I have read in a long time.
Delusional.
Listen to this Australian in the Bakhmut theatre to help you to understand the reality :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
Why have the lessons of Vietnam, Afghanistan etc still not been learned – even of Russia (invaded by the Germans). Cause a country enough grief and they will NEVER back down – the Kurds -still fighting and will forever etc etc. Learning history, repeating blah blah – the imbecility of psychopathic tyrants and the gormless commoners who let them have their way , blah blah – and round and round we go. I guess this is why the Yanks hang onto their guns – it is kinda making more sense these days…………….thought i would never say that !!!!
Probably the biggest load of garbage I have read in a long time.
Delusional.
Listen to this Australian in the Bakhmut theatre to help you to understand the reality :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
It’s existential for the Ukrainians, so in a population of 40 millions they could easily generate another army from all adult men constituting several millions. Their economy is screwed so they have nothing else to do.
For the Russians it isn’t existential, so Russians won’t accept going on the total war mobilisation required to beat a Ukrainian army of several millions.
“For the Russians it isn’t existential”
Wut ?!
I’m firmly convinced that Moscow would nuke London and Washington rather than lose Sevastopol.
I’m speculating, like you, of course.
But unlike you, it seems, I actually listen to what Putin and Lavrov actually say, rather than have my news shat out to me by the likes of the BBC, CNN and David Patrikarkos of this parish.
“For the Russians it isn’t existential”
Wut ?!
I’m firmly convinced that Moscow would nuke London and Washington rather than lose Sevastopol.
I’m speculating, like you, of course.
But unlike you, it seems, I actually listen to what Putin and Lavrov actually say, rather than have my news shat out to me by the likes of the BBC, CNN and David Patrikarkos of this parish.
How can it become a manoeuvre conflict when the Ukies are dug into concrete bunkers in places like Ugledar, Avdeevka and Artymovsk ?
They’re sitting ducks which is why the Russian Artillery is pounding them into a zombie PTSD state and then Wagner is mopping them up.
Is that still the case where an offensive force is considered? I can see that from the point of view of defensive position but at some point during a war of aggression numbers will have a greater psychological impact.
Bad analogy. But going in the right direction.
Grant had an overall four-to-one superiority in manpower in 1864. And that was only possible because of three years of attrition warfare.
Remember, the South could only recruit from a free population of 4 million, while the North had 20 million.
Ukraine is a third the population of Russia, but with a million already under arms.
Even with another call-up, Russia will have only a marginal superiority–and now, a clear qualitative inferiority.
“huge amount of equipment in storage” most of which is inoperable as they are discovering. Parts sold year ago.
This is true, but how many men can Russia throw into the meat grinder before it starts to cause unrest? It’s one thing using prisoners and peasants from Siberia and the Caucuses as cannon fodder, it’s quite different when you start mobilising large numbers from Moscow and St Petersburg
The Ukrainians do not have a manpower issue. They’ve up to a 1million mobilised or trained/training. The Russians can deploy more of course if they further enforce conscription, but they haven’t got the Ukrainian’s anywhere near a reinforcements problem. Nor is this likely. Russia may have the theoretical manpower but can’t sustain heavy losses without victories without morale collapsing and risk of social unrest. They already have a ‘go-forward’ problem.
Of course that doesn’t mean losses aren’t tragic and desperate, but one Ukrainian soldier is proving worth a good number of Russians . Fighting on your home soil against a known barbarous invader a force multiplier.
It’s existential for the Ukrainians, so in a population of 40 millions they could easily generate another army from all adult men constituting several millions. Their economy is screwed so they have nothing else to do.
For the Russians it isn’t existential, so Russians won’t accept going on the total war mobilisation required to beat a Ukrainian army of several millions.
How can it become a manoeuvre conflict when the Ukies are dug into concrete bunkers in places like Ugledar, Avdeevka and Artymovsk ?
They’re sitting ducks which is why the Russian Artillery is pounding them into a zombie PTSD state and then Wagner is mopping them up.
Re your first point, I was told off the record that this has indeed happened. Re your second point, the answer is also yes: Russian casualties are now happening at a quicker rate. But Ukraine is losing better-trained, more experienced soldiers, so even if the ratio has shifted in Ukraine’s favour, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the war is turning in their favour.
“I was told off the record that this has indeed happened.”
Lol. Well, that’s me convinced, chief.
No video evidence has emerged, but James from Unherd got a tip-off, so it must be true.
Hahahahahahaha
“I was told off the record that this has indeed happened.”
Lol. Well, that’s me convinced, chief.
No video evidence has emerged, but James from Unherd got a tip-off, so it must be true.
Hahahahahahaha
If the Russians were using human wave attacks then we would have seen the videos by now
Exactly. It’s utter bullshit, simply allowing all these keyboard warriors to claim that OK, maybe the Russians ARE winning, bUt LoOk aT tHEir CAsuaLTiES !!
Exactly. It’s utter bullshit, simply allowing all these keyboard warriors to claim that OK, maybe the Russians ARE winning, bUt LoOk aT tHEir CAsuaLTiES !!
Russia has a long history of never giving up no matter what the cost, as was proven in WW2 and in its war with Napoleon. I suspect, sadly, this will be no different. I don’t know what the prison population of Russia is but there will be plenty more troops to be conscripted after the last living Ukrainian is tragically killed. It is the ordinary Ukrainians that are the real cannon fodder with satanic NATO perfectly happy to see them die in their horrible proxy war with Russia.
They gave up in Afghanistan. ( Your comment about NATO rather undermines your credibility. )
Read a history book! Russia has lost wars to Japan, Finland, Afghanistan, Germany (WW1). In fact Russia has only “won” one war WW2 and that was with the help of USA and U.K.
They won the Chechen Wars so decisively that only 20 years later, the Chechens are fighting alongside the Russians.
And you think Afghanistan has any lessons for this war ?
Russia now has a professional army, backed up by militias of the strength of Wagner, the Chechens, the Donetsk Peoples Militia.
Five years ago, one of my wifes cousins was posted with the Russian Army to Sakhalin. She explained the Army now was a very prestigious gig in Russia and the men highly motivated, paid and trained.
Listen to this interview from an Australian in Bakhmut talk about how well equipped the Russians are in comparison to the Ukrainians :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
The whole hour long interview is worth listening to, but particularly 5.21 – 8.15. These 3 minutes pour cold water on almost all the comments in this thread.
They won the Chechen Wars so decisively that only 20 years later, the Chechens are fighting alongside the Russians.
And you think Afghanistan has any lessons for this war ?
Russia now has a professional army, backed up by militias of the strength of Wagner, the Chechens, the Donetsk Peoples Militia.
Five years ago, one of my wifes cousins was posted with the Russian Army to Sakhalin. She explained the Army now was a very prestigious gig in Russia and the men highly motivated, paid and trained.
Listen to this interview from an Australian in Bakhmut talk about how well equipped the Russians are in comparison to the Ukrainians :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
The whole hour long interview is worth listening to, but particularly 5.21 – 8.15. These 3 minutes pour cold water on almost all the comments in this thread.
At last, some sense amid this sea of cope, delusion and nonsense.
They gave up in Afghanistan. ( Your comment about NATO rather undermines your credibility. )
Read a history book! Russia has lost wars to Japan, Finland, Afghanistan, Germany (WW1). In fact Russia has only “won” one war WW2 and that was with the help of USA and U.K.
At last, some sense amid this sea of cope, delusion and nonsense.
Where do you get this nonsense from ? Some NED-funded NGO in Kiev ? The BBC ? CNN ?
If you want to be seriously depressed, but yet much more informed about the way the Russians operationally and tactically deploy, listen to this Australian mercenary actually describing the Bakhmut theatre.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
This “human wave” idea is a complete myth.
Its not the numbers that matter. Its the percentage of available forces lost. The Russian can loose 3 or 4 times more than the Ukrainians and still win. There’s talk of mobilization of another 200,000 Russians. There comes a point where the Ukrainians don’t have the numbers to defend the current line and have to retreat. Similar to Grant’s campaign in the East in 1864-65. If the war continues as a battle of attrition the Russians win because they have a greater population and huge amount of equipment in storage. That’s why the supply of western tanks is so vital. It turns an attrition conflict, which favors Russia, into a manoeuvre conflict, which favors Ukraine.
Re your first point, I was told off the record that this has indeed happened. Re your second point, the answer is also yes: Russian casualties are now happening at a quicker rate. But Ukraine is losing better-trained, more experienced soldiers, so even if the ratio has shifted in Ukraine’s favour, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the war is turning in their favour.
If the Russians were using human wave attacks then we would have seen the videos by now
Russia has a long history of never giving up no matter what the cost, as was proven in WW2 and in its war with Napoleon. I suspect, sadly, this will be no different. I don’t know what the prison population of Russia is but there will be plenty more troops to be conscripted after the last living Ukrainian is tragically killed. It is the ordinary Ukrainians that are the real cannon fodder with satanic NATO perfectly happy to see them die in their horrible proxy war with Russia.
Where do you get this nonsense from ? Some NED-funded NGO in Kiev ? The BBC ? CNN ?
If you want to be seriously depressed, but yet much more informed about the way the Russians operationally and tactically deploy, listen to this Australian mercenary actually describing the Bakhmut theatre.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
This “human wave” idea is a complete myth.
I claim no expertise, but if the Russians are using human wave attacks by poorly trained and ill-equipped troops then their casualty rate is likely to be far high than that experienced by the defenders.
One question I have is “Has the casualty rate experienced by both sides changed over the course of the war?” This may seem a ghoulish question but it surely has some significance for the final outcome – Even the Russians run out of cannon fodder eventually.
Not sure the body count means much except when new bodies can’t be found to enter combat. So far neither side has run out of bodies.
What does win war is logistics. In the US civil war as with all wars, the ability to furnish the weapons and materials of war define who ultimately wins. There are exceptions related to the public opinion eliminating support, Vietnam and Afghanistan are notable. But in the Ukraine war the west can supply goods forever, but Russia can’t. Ukraine might face huge destruction but if citizens decide to continue the fight, their supply lines will not falter.
You assume western countries will not grow weary of shouldering the burden of logistics to the Ukrainians. Certainly, the west can continue far longer than Russia, but whether they will or not is an entirely different question. I do agree that logistics wins wars, but I wouldn’t undersell the advantage of fighting in the defense of your home.
“But in the Ukraine war the west can supply goods forever, but Russia can’t.”
“But in the Ukraine war Russia can supply goods forever, but the west can’t.”
FTFY
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
You assume western countries will not grow weary of shouldering the burden of logistics to the Ukrainians. Certainly, the west can continue far longer than Russia, but whether they will or not is an entirely different question. I do agree that logistics wins wars, but I wouldn’t undersell the advantage of fighting in the defense of your home.
“But in the Ukraine war the west can supply goods forever, but Russia can’t.”
“But in the Ukraine war Russia can supply goods forever, but the west can’t.”
FTFY
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
Not sure the body count means much except when new bodies can’t be found to enter combat. So far neither side has run out of bodies.
What does win war is logistics. In the US civil war as with all wars, the ability to furnish the weapons and materials of war define who ultimately wins. There are exceptions related to the public opinion eliminating support, Vietnam and Afghanistan are notable. But in the Ukraine war the west can supply goods forever, but Russia can’t. Ukraine might face huge destruction but if citizens decide to continue the fight, their supply lines will not falter.
The Ukrainian war is a war of attrition rather like the Korea war. Both gulf wars achieved success by manoeuvre warfare. The Russians lack the tactical ability to fight manoeuvre warfare and the Ukrainians lack the weapons to fight manoeuvre warfare. That’s why the supply of western tanks has been considered vital. This gives the Ukrainians the ability to breakthrough the Russian lines and destroy Russian logistics. The Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to breakthrough Russian lines but lacked the numbers and logistics support to fully exploit their tactical success. The Russians are losing at the tactical level but have a marginal win at the operational level because they can sustain attritional warfare. This article doesn’t mention the vital difference between attrition and manoeuvre casualties.
I’m not sure it’s a lack of tactical ability on the Russians’ part so much as a different doctrine, based on overwhelming firepower and as you say attrition rather than Gulf War-style manoeuvre (which itself depended on a good deal of firepower preceding it to degrade enemy logistics and prevent defence in depth).
This is untrue. The initial Russian timetable was to take Kyiv in 3 days. The use of air assault regiment to take the airfield north of Kyiv the infiltration of special forces and then being relieved by armored columns is straight of the theory of deep operations. It’s exactly what an attack on NATO in 1985 would have looked like. The Soivet plans had them reaching the Rhine by H+48 to H+72. That’s not attrition warfare.
In manoeuvre warfare you achieve a numerical advantage at the point of attack and use huge amounts of artillery to suppres infantry defences. The problem is that they can’t co ordinate between artillery, infantry and armor. So instead of being able to stage a breakthrough they have reverted to tactics of 1917-18. Pre planned artillery barrages followed by limted advances to bite and hold. The Russians tried and failed to implement manoeuvre warfare. That doesn’t matter to them because they can win by attrition.
Sorry, the Russian Army is in no way the Soviet.
First of all, they lack the wheeled transport to support any deep penetration. Even if the hare-brained Hostomel attack had succeeded, they would only have reached Kyiv, and got no further.
That would have just started a huge irregular war.
True, memories of the Great Patriotic War still delude Russia’s leadership.
But they conveniently (and fatally) forget that without 400,000 American trucks, any Soviet offensives would have been just as barren of success as Germany’s in 1941-2.
Russian officers are just too intellectually isolated to fight a war like this.
The infinite US logistics chain of WWII allowed the Russians to fight on. That same logistics chain ended the war.
“Russian officers are just too intellectually isolated to fight a war like this.”
Well, their lack of intellect isn’t stopping them winning this war, which doesn’t speak much for NATO, does it ?
Losing a war to stupid jail-bait.
The infinite US logistics chain of WWII allowed the Russians to fight on. That same logistics chain ended the war.
“Russian officers are just too intellectually isolated to fight a war like this.”
Well, their lack of intellect isn’t stopping them winning this war, which doesn’t speak much for NATO, does it ?
Losing a war to stupid jail-bait.
“The initial Russian timetable was to take Kyiv in 3 days.”
Got a quote for this, friend, other that some blowhard speculating on a Russian TV channel ?
Sorry, the Russian Army is in no way the Soviet.
First of all, they lack the wheeled transport to support any deep penetration. Even if the hare-brained Hostomel attack had succeeded, they would only have reached Kyiv, and got no further.
That would have just started a huge irregular war.
True, memories of the Great Patriotic War still delude Russia’s leadership.
But they conveniently (and fatally) forget that without 400,000 American trucks, any Soviet offensives would have been just as barren of success as Germany’s in 1941-2.
Russian officers are just too intellectually isolated to fight a war like this.
“The initial Russian timetable was to take Kyiv in 3 days.”
Got a quote for this, friend, other that some blowhard speculating on a Russian TV channel ?
Correct. Russian artillery tactics is what is winning this war for them.
This is untrue. The initial Russian timetable was to take Kyiv in 3 days. The use of air assault regiment to take the airfield north of Kyiv the infiltration of special forces and then being relieved by armored columns is straight of the theory of deep operations. It’s exactly what an attack on NATO in 1985 would have looked like. The Soivet plans had them reaching the Rhine by H+48 to H+72. That’s not attrition warfare.
In manoeuvre warfare you achieve a numerical advantage at the point of attack and use huge amounts of artillery to suppres infantry defences. The problem is that they can’t co ordinate between artillery, infantry and armor. So instead of being able to stage a breakthrough they have reverted to tactics of 1917-18. Pre planned artillery barrages followed by limted advances to bite and hold. The Russians tried and failed to implement manoeuvre warfare. That doesn’t matter to them because they can win by attrition.
Correct. Russian artillery tactics is what is winning this war for them.
Incredibly optimistic thinking to assume that 100 tanks are going to give Ukraine the ability to break through Russian lines and destroy logistics. The Russians are in a much stronger defensive position now than they were before, so I suspect that the tanks (which likely won’t be functional on the ground for months) will raise the likelihood of a stalemate, rather than a decisive breakthrough for Ukraine.
The Iraqs were dug in too. Didn’t do them any good. The Egyptians and Syrians were dug in as well, guess what they lost. Its shock provided by artillery to suppress atgm and knock out supporting fire. If you co ordinates combined arms you allow your engineering vehicles to clear static defences. This isn’t rocket science it’s an 80 year tactical ability. The difficulty is in getting all arms to work together. That takes training, planning and good leadership from nco level upwards.
Of which western armies have plenty, and the Russian Army clearly lacks.
Follow Girkin’s Telegram Channel.
He’s a war criminal from 2014, but the only sane “voenkor” (war correspondent).
You can translate him in Google translate.
https://t.me/s/strelkovii
Notable absolute dominance in the air. Dug-in means little to a barrage of 2000# bombs on target.
Of which western armies have plenty, and the Russian Army clearly lacks.
Follow Girkin’s Telegram Channel.
He’s a war criminal from 2014, but the only sane “voenkor” (war correspondent).
You can translate him in Google translate.
https://t.me/s/strelkovii
Notable absolute dominance in the air. Dug-in means little to a barrage of 2000# bombs on target.
The Iraqs were dug in too. Didn’t do them any good. The Egyptians and Syrians were dug in as well, guess what they lost. Its shock provided by artillery to suppress atgm and knock out supporting fire. If you co ordinates combined arms you allow your engineering vehicles to clear static defences. This isn’t rocket science it’s an 80 year tactical ability. The difficulty is in getting all arms to work together. That takes training, planning and good leadership from nco level upwards.
I’m not sure it’s a lack of tactical ability on the Russians’ part so much as a different doctrine, based on overwhelming firepower and as you say attrition rather than Gulf War-style manoeuvre (which itself depended on a good deal of firepower preceding it to degrade enemy logistics and prevent defence in depth).
Incredibly optimistic thinking to assume that 100 tanks are going to give Ukraine the ability to break through Russian lines and destroy logistics. The Russians are in a much stronger defensive position now than they were before, so I suspect that the tanks (which likely won’t be functional on the ground for months) will raise the likelihood of a stalemate, rather than a decisive breakthrough for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian war is a war of attrition rather like the Korea war. Both gulf wars achieved success by manoeuvre warfare. The Russians lack the tactical ability to fight manoeuvre warfare and the Ukrainians lack the weapons to fight manoeuvre warfare. That’s why the supply of western tanks has been considered vital. This gives the Ukrainians the ability to breakthrough the Russian lines and destroy Russian logistics. The Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to breakthrough Russian lines but lacked the numbers and logistics support to fully exploit their tactical success. The Russians are losing at the tactical level but have a marginal win at the operational level because they can sustain attritional warfare. This article doesn’t mention the vital difference between attrition and manoeuvre casualties.
Does anybody really believe these figures from Norway? Since when we been getting Intel. from Norway, when it suits the narrative. As for Milley, why’s he asking for a ceasefire?
just reverse these figures and they may be about right. We’ll know for certain when they bring back the draft in Germany, they already have done in Poland. NATO is running out of Ukrainians.
Does anybody really believe these figures from Norway? Since when we been getting Intel. from Norway, when it suits the narrative. As for Milley, why’s he asking for a ceasefire?
just reverse these figures and they may be about right. We’ll know for certain when they bring back the draft in Germany, they already have done in Poland. NATO is running out of Ukrainians.
Whatever the Russian casualties are you can bet your bottom dollar that anything coming out of so called western experts and analysts, is simple propaganda to boost public support for public funds and resources being siphoned off to support Ukraine. Norway’s Chief of Defence, the US Chief of Staff or Rand are precisely the sort of western propaganda foghorns whose public utterances on the matter are as reliable as Colin Powell’s lie to the UN Security Council regarding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. They are deliberately spun to mislead.
A more reliable source revealed by its attempt to bury it, is Ursula von Der Leyen’s utterance of the alarming state of Ukrainian losses suggesting the precariousness of the Western trained and armed Ukrainian army being used as canon fodder against Russia. On realising she had let the cat out of the bag as to the real state of affairs, the EU propagandists quickly moved in to action to remove the clip and explain it away. Fortunately others managed to preserve it. It is accessible in the public domain on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB8GQnRJHWg
Whatever the Russian casualties are you can bet your bottom dollar that anything coming out of so called western experts and analysts, is simple propaganda to boost public support for public funds and resources being siphoned off to support Ukraine. Norway’s Chief of Defence, the US Chief of Staff or Rand are precisely the sort of western propaganda foghorns whose public utterances on the matter are as reliable as Colin Powell’s lie to the UN Security Council regarding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. They are deliberately spun to mislead.
A more reliable source revealed by its attempt to bury it, is Ursula von Der Leyen’s utterance of the alarming state of Ukrainian losses suggesting the precariousness of the Western trained and armed Ukrainian army being used as canon fodder against Russia. On realising she had let the cat out of the bag as to the real state of affairs, the EU propagandists quickly moved in to action to remove the clip and explain it away. Fortunately others managed to preserve it. It is accessible in the public domain on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB8GQnRJHWg
The war has momentarily halted due to ukranian mud. This was expected.
Russia has also managed to occupy some small town. It’s war, sometimes the bad guy wins something.
Now these kinds of posts are starting to show up here and on other sites: ”The russians are just to many. They will never stop coming. The ukranians must give way for the russian might. They always win in the end”. And so on.
Thing is that Russia won’t be allowed to win. The West, albeit a bit slow sometimes, has always stepped up to help Ukraine. Latest reinforcement is of course the Abrahams and Leopard tanks. F-16 fighters are constantly talked about. Today Rheinmetall announced they will increase production of 155mm shells to around 500.000 a year. 120mm tank shells to about 240.000. They are in talks with Lockheed about producing actual HIMARS here in Europe.
So you see, it won’t matter how many russians are sent to the front. The West has decided that this plague of a country is to be defanged and rendered unthreatening. But it will happen in small increments and Russia herself will choose if she wants to continue to the bitter end or back off in time.
The war has momentarily halted due to ukranian mud. This was expected.
Russia has also managed to occupy some small town. It’s war, sometimes the bad guy wins something.
Now these kinds of posts are starting to show up here and on other sites: ”The russians are just to many. They will never stop coming. The ukranians must give way for the russian might. They always win in the end”. And so on.
Thing is that Russia won’t be allowed to win. The West, albeit a bit slow sometimes, has always stepped up to help Ukraine. Latest reinforcement is of course the Abrahams and Leopard tanks. F-16 fighters are constantly talked about. Today Rheinmetall announced they will increase production of 155mm shells to around 500.000 a year. 120mm tank shells to about 240.000. They are in talks with Lockheed about producing actual HIMARS here in Europe.
So you see, it won’t matter how many russians are sent to the front. The West has decided that this plague of a country is to be defanged and rendered unthreatening. But it will happen in small increments and Russia herself will choose if she wants to continue to the bitter end or back off in time.
What a difference a day makes.
The writer is correct about the casualty rates–no one knows, or will know–until well after the conflict ends.
But the dispatch of Abrams and Leopards decisively changes the war’s dynamic. The western tanks won’t be available for months, which seems to create a window of opportunity for Russia.
Sadly, however, something called the “rasputitsa” (the two-month long muddy season) will upset Russia’s war plans permanently. Until May, manoeuvre by vehicles is difficult if not impossible, as the Russians found out before Kyiv.
So Putin will either have to send his ill-prepared and equipped 150,000 “mobiks” against Ukrainian defences now, in the midst of winter, or wait and face a Ukrainian tank force far better manned, organized and led in May or June.
It may yet be a long war. But now it is a war that Russia cannot win, either in the long or short term.
“But now it is a war that Russia cannot win, either in the long or short term.” Given the logistics involved a true statement.
Why is it sad that the weather prevents a Russian advance before the Ukrainians can replenish their defences? I think most people in the world would argue that’s a good thing
“But now it is a war that Russia cannot win, either in the long or short term.” Given the logistics involved a true statement.
Why is it sad that the weather prevents a Russian advance before the Ukrainians can replenish their defences? I think most people in the world would argue that’s a good thing
What a difference a day makes.
The writer is correct about the casualty rates–no one knows, or will know–until well after the conflict ends.
But the dispatch of Abrams and Leopards decisively changes the war’s dynamic. The western tanks won’t be available for months, which seems to create a window of opportunity for Russia.
Sadly, however, something called the “rasputitsa” (the two-month long muddy season) will upset Russia’s war plans permanently. Until May, manoeuvre by vehicles is difficult if not impossible, as the Russians found out before Kyiv.
So Putin will either have to send his ill-prepared and equipped 150,000 “mobiks” against Ukrainian defences now, in the midst of winter, or wait and face a Ukrainian tank force far better manned, organized and led in May or June.
It may yet be a long war. But now it is a war that Russia cannot win, either in the long or short term.