The decline of the centre-Left across most of Europe is every bit as striking as the rise of populism – and arguably more important.
Germany is no exception to the general trend. The country’s main party of the centre-Left is the SPD. Or at least it was. In the 1998 federal election the party got a commanding 41% of the vote. But by 2017, its vote share was down to 20.5%.
Remarkably, losing half your support in less than twenty years is not a uniquely bad record for a European social democratic party – some have fared worse. However, the decline of the SPD is special because the SPD is special.
In a feature for Spiegel Online, Christoph Hickmann and Veit Medick remind us of the party’s long history:
“The SPD is more than 155 years old. It outlived the monarchy and survived National Socialism; it transformed itself from an organ of class conflict into a big tent-party; and it has weathered schisms and political realignments. The SPD has been through more than all the other parties in German parliament combined.”
Of the major parties of the Weimar Republic, only the SPD returned as a major party when democracy was restored after the war.
So, why is a movement that survived Hitler now facing what the authors call a “make-or-break year?” The SPD is currently polling at around 15% – behind the Greens and only just ahead of the national populist AfD. Unless it can show some signs of recovery in the upcoming European and regional elections, its minor party status will be confirmed. To make the challenge ten times more difficult, it must be met while the SPD reluctantly serves as a junior partner to Angela Merkel’s centre-right CDU. A party that fails to get into government is one thing; a party that fails to get into opposition is something else. It’s hard to strike out in a bold new direction when you’re propping up the status quo.
On one level, the cause of SPD’s weakness isn’t hard to discern – its traditional support base is falling to pieces.
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