Modern populism is not simply a result of Brexit and Donald Trump’s election. This phenomenon has been disrupting continental European politics since the 1990s. Populist parties, particularly those of a nationalist persuasion, have been an enduring part of the political landscape in Austria, Switzerland, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland for decades. Many people have felt unheard for a very long time.
“Populism” defined: The good “people” are being oppressed
The word ‘populist’ has become so commonly used by journalists and pundits that its meaning is often vague, so it’s worth defining at the outset. The academic consensus is that populism is a form of rhetoric which claims that legitimate authority flows from ‘the people’ (‘us’) rather than the establishment elite (‘them’). In itself, it is not an ideology such as liberalism or socialism, but is rather a strategy used by politicians of all leanings. Populism is largely empty of specific policy proposals regarding the economy, foreign policy or welfare. What unifies all populists is the moral claim of democratic legitimacy and a call to give more power to ‘the people,’ either through democratic or constitutional reforms.
For populists on the right, the rhetoric is often nationalistic – bringing together anti-immigration, anti-EU, and anti-welfare propositions. In addition to the anti-elitism, the divide is between ‘us’ the sovereign people, and ‘them’ the immigrant outsiders, assisted by a second “them,” the politicians who betray their fellow citizens to show preference for the outsider “them”. For left-wing populists, the rhetoric is largely anti-globalisation, where bankers, corporates and ‘neo-liberals’ are the villains. Here the “them” are those who allegedly plunder their fellow citizens for ill-gotten gains, again assisted by a corrupt “them” of politicians who share in the loot.
In both cases, there is an overlap between economic, cultural and political factors which have led to a growing divide between what are sometimes called the cosmopolitans or globalists on the one hand, and the nationalists or anti-globalists on the other. The latter, concentrated among certain demographics and those holding authoritarian views, have taken to voting for populists to express their discontent. Taking each of these three elements in turn helps put together a bigger picture.
Economic factors: The rise of the “left behind”
Populism’s economic drivers have often received the most attention, coined in a phrase as being the ‘left behind.’ The general argument is that globalisation has led to rising prosperity overall, but that working classes have failed to benefit from it. With automation replacing or reducing the secure and relatively well-paid jobs of the past, less-educated and lower-skilled members of society have been living with stagnant wages and health problems. Meanwhile, the success and affluence of major cities like London, Paris, and New York have been breeding resentment.
In the UK and US, for instance, analysis by Claudia Chwalisz and James Kanagasooriam demonstrates that the key variables associated with voting for either Brexit or Donald Trump are low median income, older age (65-74), having no tertiary education, and having health issues. Inequality is not necessarily a problem for these voters: rather, it is low absolute pay. Michèle Lamont’s research about the working class’s differing perceptions of professionals and the wealthy further supports this: while they are resentful of the former, they tend to admire the rich for being hard-working and earning their money.
But economic factors only one part of the story. Cultural change is as important as economic pain in explaining populist appeal.
Populists think it does
The populist backlash is in many ways linked to the anti-globalists defending their traditional values. In recent decades, certain issues have brought the cleavage between these two groups to the fore, notably immigration and the refugee crisis.
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