Angela Merkel, Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac, and Vladimir Putin - Stefan Rousseau/PA Archive/PA Images
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For all the feverish polls and fervid political analysis, every election boils down to one core issue: change or continuity. When people enter the booth to cast their vote they are confronted with the same choice regardless of the names before them: do you want to give the current gang another few years in charge or kick them out for that other bunch? Many factors inform the final decision, from economics and social concerns through to personalities, yet ultimately all feed into this simple question.
Since we live in tempestuous times, with many voters spooked by digital disruption, economic pessimism and the pace of globalisation, several key electorates have opted for change in recent ballots. We saw Brexit in Britain followed by the shock insurgencies of Donald Trump in the United States and Emmanuel Macron in France. These same undercurrents, fostered by uncertainty, fuelled a resurgence of dismal forces from the dark past with rampant nationalism rising on the right and a reinvigorated Marxism on the left.
Yet one nation seems largely immune to this infection. Angela Merkel took over at the helm of her party when Bill Clinton was US president, has been chancellor of Germany since Tony Blair was in Downing Street, steered her nation through the global financial crisis and is the longest-serving elected leader in the European Union. Yet even in this unpredictable age, it seems safe to conclude that – barring disaster of the type not usually associated with this cautious politician – the world’s most powerful woman is cruising towards her fourth election victory later this month.
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Merkel’s achievement would be amazing in any age. But given intensity of the storms that are buffeting Western democracies, her latest triumph would be truly astonishing. With ten days of campaigning left, latest polling gives her centre-right Christian Democrats, including its more conservative Bavarian wing, a 16-point lead with a 38% vote share. The rival Social Democrats (SPD) were languishing on 22% in the most recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll.
Yes, there is suspicion of polling and many voters are still making up minds. But if she wins again, how has this enigmatic woman defied a restless desire for change that has swept aside so many contemporaries? Not least when she divided both party and nation with that dramatic decision to take in one million refugees and migrants over the past two years. The SPD did close the gap for a brief period earlier this year, after selecting the folksy Martin Schulz, a former European parliament president, as its candidate for Chancellor.
Germany does, after all, share some of the concerns that sparked surging populism in other countries. Citizens may earn more than British or French workers but their incomes have stagnated over the past decade. The numbers at risk of poverty have risen. A sharp spike in part-time, low-paid and insecure work has provoked unease over inequality, something acknowledged even by Merkel, while critics say millions of these ‘mini-jobs’ are replacing secure and better-paid full-time posts. There have been deadly terror attacks and fierce debate over integration.
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