President Le Pen? It’s never been more likely
A new poll finds that she is the leading candidate to replace Macron
If Giorgia Meloni can become Prime Minister of Italy, then why can’t Marine Le Pen become President of France?
She’s already made it to the final round twice — even if she did lose to Emmanuel Macron both times. However, she can’t lose to him a third time because, after two terms, he’s not allowed to run again. So, assuming that Le Pen has another crack at the Élysée Palace, she won’t have to face her nemesis.
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In fact, there’s a strong case that she’s now the leading candidate. It’s still early days, of course, but a shock poll from Ifop-Fiducial gives us an insight into the current state of play.
The pollster assumes that Jean-Luc Mélenchon will be the leading candidate of the Left — which he probably will. They also have Éric Zemmour running as Le Pen’s rival on the hard Right, and Laurent Wauquiez as the conservative candidate. But who will replace Macron as the centrist candidate? That’s the crucial question, but the answer is uncertain. To explore the possibilities, Ifop presents separate scenarios for the best-known Macron allies, namely Édouard Philippe, Bruno Le Maire, Gérald Darmanin and François Bayrou.
The results make grim reading for the Macronistes, because in all four scenarios Le Pen wins the first round. The worst case scenario is if Bayrou stands against her. The veteran centrist would get just 9% of the vote compared to a crushing 36% for Le Pen. Because of his crucial endorsement in the 2017 election, Bayrou can be seen as the midwife of the Macron project; but if he runs in 2027, he could be its undertaker.
The best case scenario for the centrists is if they go with Philippe. The former prime minister would limit Le Pen to 29% of the vote — and, better still, he’d be the runner-up, thus advancing to the second round. In every other scenario the moderate candidates would be knocked out, leaving the political extremes to contest the presidency.
But French voters would surely hold their noses and vote for Mélenchon to stop Le Pen, wouldn’t they? Don’t bet the house on it. The Ifop polling reveals that there’s a sizeable floating vote between Le Pen and the Macronistes. Where it goes depends on who the latter choose as their new champion, but the underlying point is that a lot of so-called centrists would be fine with a hard Right president.
I suspect that millions of voters opted for Macron not because he’s a liberal, but because they saw him as the strongest leader. If in 2027 Le Pen can claim that mantle then she could put together a winning coalition. That’s especially the case if her second round opponent is a Corbynesque Leftie like Mélenchon.
That said, she could also beat a centrist in the run-off. The latest Elabe opinion poll shows her beating Macron himself with 55% to his 45%. Obviously, Le Pen is benefitting from the current wave of strikes and protests against the president’s pension reforms. But she’s doing it by standing aside while the pro- and anti-government forces tear each other to pieces. The greater the bitterness between the centrist and Leftist blocks, the less likely they are to unite against her.
As last year’s legislative elections made clear, the old cordon sanitaire that kept the hard Right from power is falling apart. That process is now accelerating. As a result, the Le Pens have never been nearer to victory.
Legacy media is not reporting to you what is currently going in France. You will need to go on Twitter to see it. Mass civil unrest on a scale I have rarely seen in any Western country in my life. Blackrock’s HQ has been invaded by protestors. Pensions may have kicked this off but it has gone way, way beyond that now, in cities right across France.
Things are not looking good for Macron.
I thought it was all over judging from the news but it looks like it was just a pause for union talks with the government which have subsequently broken down.
Is that about right?
I think that is the catalyst but when people are going after BlackRock, a globalist icon, which I don’t think has much to do with French pension reforms, more is going on. Why would so many young people be on the streets about something that won’t affect them for 40 years?
Shades of 1968 when De Gaulle ‘legged it’ to Kaiserslautern and the French Army?
So why is Macron sunning himself in Peking as we scribble?
Macron knows that the US wrecking operation in Europe is ending soon, and Europe will be left to pick up the pieces. He also knows that this is the Chinese century now.
Getting his feet under the table/snout in the trough for “retirement”, aka Tony Blair.
Why is it sunny in Beijing Charles?
Maybe the coal-fired power stations are victims of a new ‘net zero’ policy and the smog has cleared.
What would be the modern equivalent of storming the Bastille? Would be interesting if they made it that far. I made a comment yesterday about France having a good ole fashioned rebellion every so often. They’re a bit overdue for one of these, aren’t they?
The French certainly make a few people sitting in the road look a bit lame. They set fire to the awnings of Macron favourite La Rotonde earlier.
French unrest always feels extreme by the standards of any other Western European country. The talk of French civil war is vastly overblown. Macron is unpopular, but it’s not like there sin’t an election scheduled in 2027, and a simple no-confidence vote could alter that calendar.
“They also have Éric Zemmour running as Le Pen’s rival on the hard Right”
Does that mean Le Pen isn’t “far Right” anymore? That’s been “journalists” default insult against her for decades. Maybe the “hard Right” is different from the “far Right”, but which is further right? More to the point, if half of France is voting for the far/hard Right, are they still far/hard Right, or can we finally admit that they are mainstream France?
Anyone who hasn’t read Submission by Michael Houllebeq should do immediately. He presents a plausible scenario that the Left allies with a Muslim party to prevent a “far right” presidency. The book is actually about how French progressives reconcile themselves to dhimmitude in the name of saving France from the right-ring radicals. Good book.
I read it as him being her “rival” in the sense that he too is on the “hard right.”
”President Le Pen. It’s never been more likely.”
Not sure why anyone would find this surprising.
She’s the woman that Putin paid for, isn’t she? https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/23/marine-le-pens-party-paying-10m-russian-military-contractor/
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