January 6, 2021 - 10:31am
The main source of data on how many vaccines have been administered are weekly summaries from NHS England and the devolved regions, which are somewhat patchy, and out of date by a number of days.
When the Prime Minister announces a total from the podium of Number 10 however, he has every incentive to make sure every last vaccine has been counted, and people feeding him the number have every incentive to get it right. So I’ve been plotting the numbers he has mentioned over time.
The first number was contained within his 19th December ‘cancelling Christmas’ speech, when he detailed the tightening of restrictions — that was 350,000. Given that the first vaccine was administered on 8th December, not a hugely impressive number for two weeks, but presumably they were ramping up during that same period.
In the following week, things sure looked like it. Two days later, on 21st December, the Prime Minister announced a new total of 500,000 vaccinations. Three days after that, on Christmas eve within his statement on the EU trade deal, he announced “nearly 800,000” vaccinations.
The Minister for Vaccines Nadhim Zahawi has told me that that 800,000 number was accurate on 24th December, and, further, that the 1 million mark UK-wide was surpassed on Sunday 27th December.
What this tells me is that it was not merely a delay in reporting — the PM was actually reporting the latest live totals each day (as you’d expect, he has every incentive to have a high number to announce). The implied pace from the difference between announcements during that ten-day period was pretty reliable, as you can see on the chart — equivalent to 75,000 a day.
Since then, we haven’t heard any new numbers from the PM — until yesterday during his press conference, when he announced the new total of 1.3m. This is a full nine days since the 27th December when the total was 1 million: if the trend had continued we should have seen something closer to 1,675,000. This would seem to be a dramatic slowing down.
This week’s update from NHS England will be posted on Thursday, and we are promised a live dashboard (which can’t come soon enough). But in the mean time, that is not an encouraging number.
Freddie Sayers is the Editor-in-Chief & CEO of UnHerd. He was previously Editor-in-Chief of YouGov, and founder of PoliticsHome.
freddiesayers
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeCan we adjust the red line on the graph for if we allow medical staff to have Christmas Day off? I know many work with patients in hospital, but after a really hard year, those who don’t need to work deserve at least that day off. It would have been a massive logistical challenge to invite people in for vaccinations on that day as well.
The state of Israel seems to be vaccinating much faster than anywhere else, certainly more than us. Reports suggest that the paperwork required for each jab done by the NHS takes three times as long to complete as it does in Israel.
I recall that when getting my flu jab last year at a pharmacy in the UK it took about 10 seconds to do the jab, but the pharmacist then took 5 minutes to log in to the NHS website and update my vaccination record. That’s what we ought to fix.
Israel is quoted all the time.
I think it is relevant to note that ALL able bodied people are conscripted into the army/forces at 18 and are subject to call up with a day’s notice until they reach the age of 50.
All of them, I am sure, will have had basic 1st aid training and a significant number will have had vaccination training too.
I believe their health system is run by ‘not for profit’ private organisations.
To compare them to any other non military country is pointless.
Your point about paperwork is a very valid one bearing in mind the hoops our retired volunteers have been expected to jump through in order to be available.
NHS bureaucracy at its finest.
All completely valid points – all I would add is that as a Jewish State am I not right in thinking that Christmas has less of an impact?
Are you saying that Israel’s doing so much better than the UK, having g started eleven days later, because it has more people with first aid training? Just that?
No and I didn’t say that.
But a significant % will have full medical training, and ALL are available to be called up to assist with organisation without having to fill in 20 pages of forms including ‘diversity training’.
That is every single able bodied person between the ages of 18 and 50 are available immediately, to collect, deliver, process and vaccinate.
I doubt very much that they have the equivalent of our PHE organising things – and they certainly will not down tools on the 7th day.
Work it out yourself.
Israel is doing well because it planned ahead, ordered the vaccines well ahead, and it has mobilised all the country’s resources to get the vaccination programme done, plus, and perhaps most importantly, it has removed pointless bureaucratic obstacles.
Well pointed out. National Service definitely broadens people’s minds and abilities.
I suspect that the main difference is that someone in Israel planned, and probably did a dry run, ironing the kinks out.
Someone with a bit of imagination also probably ordered a bunch of glass vials, went through the paperwork and so on.
Without outliers such as Israel, it can be really hard to realise how incompetent the machinery of government is around the world and how little resilience is built into most specialised, globalised states.
I wonder how far they are with their ‘program’ , so far I do not see any positive effect on deathrate and cases etc.,….
Who cares about the pace of vaccination, the vaccine will not solve the problems caused by the lockdown-measures. Johan Giesecke already knew this in april. The only thing that can solve this problem is disobedience and, luckily, nature itself will put an end to this virus as soon as winter ends.
If the report in the Telegraph about PHE is accurate then that could easily explain the slowdown.
PHE are, apparently responsible for vaccine delivery but have refused to work on Sundays. Over the last two weeks we have had 2 Sundays AND 4 public holidays.
I don’t suppose for a minute PHE have accepted any Private company help over this, even though we know that many have offered.
Facts are friends to those who want to keep their eye on the disparity that is emerging between the forecast and actual numbers of vaccinations taking place. Thank you so much for this important article. The PM’s press conference is where I’m sending my next question, and I’ll copy in the health, medical and political correspondents. The most telling announcement is the incompetence of a government and Health Secretary who between them have decided that only one half of the promised Pfizer vaccination will be administered. That will not do. So, time to resurrect my list of interrogating correspondents. Once again, thank you, and please keep it coming to this website.
Two points 1. as far as I know the second jab has been delayed not canceled 2. Why won’t it do?
We knew the vaccines were coming and we had time to plan ahead so I don’t understand why the staffs at the vaccination centres weren’t stood outside, needles in hand (metaphorically speaking) waiting for the truck carrying the vaccine to roll through the gate and those needing to be vaccinated first waiting in line.
This “ramping up” appears more to be “catching up” from a lacking of pre-planning. I just don’t understand why it wasn’t all ready to go.
Only anecdotal evidence but I have heard that the Pfizer vaccine is quite a logistical challenge. It needs very careful handling and a practice in my area had one whole pack (975 doses £28,000) explode!
As well as that problem, there is the fact that some GP practices have opted out. Some have not got the facilities to deal with the Pfizer vaccine and may come back onstream with the Oxford version. Some seem to be opting out altogether.
Having enough staff and trained individuals is only one criteria – however it’s obvious that there are a lot of people who don’t understand logistics and the numerous bottlenecks at the facility where the vaccine is produced – it takes time to make it – test it – QA it – before it gets on the lorry- plane or train. You need to get rid of this infantile Google mentality of instant demand. It’s not a BigMac.
Vaccination is needed now for all frontline workers police, hospitals, care homes, pharmacies etc..