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Is Canada’s west looking to break free from Justin Trudeau?
A conservative victory in Alberta lays the groundwork for separation
In the oil-rich Canadian prairie province of Alberta, voters placed their confidence in Danielle Smith’s Right-wing populist United Conservative Party, which won re-election on Monday night against its Left-wing opposition, the New Democratic Party.
The result is set to have major implications for the rest of the country. Smith vowed in her victory speech to carry on her fight against Justin Trudeau’s federal government over the future of Alberta’s energy wealth amid the Prime Minister’s efforts to fight climate change. And though there is nothing new about an Albertan leader declaring war on Ottawa (it’s practically part of the job description), what’s been startling about this premier is the extent to which she and her party have openly flirted with separatist and sovereigntist sentiments, something unheard of for a provincial government outside of Quebec.
Though it remains a minority stance in the province and Smith is not an avowed separatist (that threshold has yet to be crossed), she has more than anyone else enabled such currents to migrate from the fringes to the centre of political debate.
The United Conservatives have been in power since 2019, but Smith only ascended to the premiership in October of last year after an internal party leadership struggle that saw the last premier, Jason Kenney — an ex-federal minister and himself a man of impeccable Right-wing credentials — ousted from office over the base’s opposition to his Covid-19 restrictions.
Smith, who fumbled a previous shot at power back in 2012 before becoming a talk radio host, won the contest to replace Kenney thanks to the support of anti-vaccine mandate, anti-Ottawa insurgents. The central plank of her platform was a sweeping (and constitutionally dubious) “Alberta Sovereignty Act”, which would authorise the provincial government to nullify the enforcement of federal laws — whether related to energy, health regulations, or gun control — which it deemed to be against the interests of Alberta.
Upon winning office, however, the Smith government ended up passing a somewhat toned-down version of the bill, which was renamed the “Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act”. But there was little appetite for toning things down rhetorically. Sounding almost like a states’ rights advocate from the US Tea Party, Smith claimed, as the act was being passed, that provinces were “sovereign, independent jurisdictions”, even going so far as to question Ottawa’s legitimacy as a national government. This position is actually antithetical to the one held by the statesmen of the Canadian Confederation in 1867, who empowered Ottawa at the expense of the provinces in an explicit rejection of the American constitutional model.
In any event, the sovereignty issue seemed to fade by the new year, and was not prominent in the recent campaign. In fact, minor parties calling for independence failed to win an appreciable share of the vote, indicating that there is no momentum for an outright break with Canada.
However, a future sovereignty agenda could still be discerned in Smith’s other policy priorities: an independent Alberta police force to replace the Mounties; an Alberta Pension Plan; moves toward some form of private healthcare; and, of course, upholding the Sovereignty Act, which the opposition vowed to repeal.
There is nothing too dramatic about each of these plans when treated separately: after all, Ontario already has its own police and Quebec has its own pension plan. Taken together, however, these opt-outs from the structures of the Canadian federation would amount to an increasingly functionally separate existence for the province. With four more years in power for Smith’s party, it’s anyone’s guess how far the idea of a sovereign Alberta can, or indeed will, go.
I’m from Alberta. Separation sentiment here has ebbed and flowed over the years. It peaked during the ‘70s oil crisis and has never been quite as strong. I voted for Smith because she will strongly push back against the net zero policies of the federal government. The feds are mandating 30% emission reductions for both the oil and gas industry and agriculture by 2030, which is only possible by shutting down big segments of those industries. She will fight tooth and nail to prevent this, with support from a couple neighboring provinces.
Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party has always targeted Alberta for punishment because they have virtually no political support here. They have two MPs from Alberta and don’t need the seats to win power.
This was a very big win for the future of Alberta, and hopefully the demise of net zero.
Erudite as always Jim Veenbas. I always wondered your location, recognizing your North American observations but unable to pin down the actual area… Godspeed to Smith and the current separation movement, if only to galvanize opposition to neo-Trudeauism.
All of this has to be put into the broader context of North American politics. There are a lot more similarities (and there’s a lot more trade) between Canadian provinces and the US states below them than there are connections from east to west. Vancouver is more similar to Portland and Seattle than Calgary, Toronto or Montreal. Alberta would fit right in with mid-western red states. Southern Ontario would fit right in with the rust-belt states. Quebec? Ok, not even France would take her back. But as the US becomes ungovernable pockets of red and blue, Canada could also unravel along the same lines – perhaps even joining up some of those regions. As a country, we’ve always struggled to find a unifying force – anti-Americanism was the best we could come up with, but ultimately that’s just our self-loathing. We do not exist but for our north south trade, our shared media culture and of course the military protection of America.
The US sneezes and Canada catches a cold.
The self loathing is all yours, sport. Canada is a happy, prosperous nation (see today’s growth numbers), impervious to the likes of Trump and Johnson as Polievre will find out soon enough.
Smith hung on but she is fatally wounded because she is a sub par candidate who just grabs onto whatever populist nonsense happens to be floating past but doesn’t have the intellectual or political chops to hold on. She’s already a lame duck.
The Trudeau Liberals won the last election with 32% of the vote. The Conservatives had 36%, with a leader no one liked and who was punted immediately afterwards.
Even if your numbers were correct, and they aren’t, who cares?
The conservative’s new leader is a polarizing figure who is deeply unpopular with most Canadians. People may be getting tired of Trudeau but there’s no way they elect a Trumpian clown like PP.
Yes, you are correct. It was 33.7% PC and 32.6% Libs. Poilievre was wildly popular during the PC leadership campaign, drawing huge crowds at campaign events, much larger than usual. I don’t know where you get the comparison with Trump. They’re both populists I suppose. I don’t see any other similarities. One was born to wealth. The other grew up in the Calgary suburbs.
So presumably, you would prefer a clown like Biden or Harris ?
Happy and prosperous, eh? Is that why so many Canadians are being encouraged by their government to kill themselves?
The Western provinces will never separate on their own – but I agree with Jim R that things could easily unravel if the US balkanized and we were at a low point in East West relations. Let’s face it – that is quite possible. For example if a corrupt old man with dementia were elected in the US in 2024 under dubious circumstances. Canada is much less united than commentators would like to believe. Newfoundland and Labrador didn’t join until 1949 – with a vote of only 51%. The prairie provinces didn’t become provinces until the early 1900’s. Quebec has never fit in. Hey – we are a genocide state according to Trudeau – maybe we should just throw in the towel out of shame.
I’m ready, indeed eager, for Alberta to leave this country and join the USA (if they’d have us).
The prime minister’s efforts to “fight” climate change will be as effective as Canute’s attempt to control the tides. Of course, Canute got a lesson in humility, whereas a Trudeau continues to be as silly as he is destructive. Godspeed, Alberta!
For the record, Canute was giving a lesson not receiving one.
Quite so.
Noted with thanks.
So what explains all the wildfires raging in Alberta?
See my post above.
The forests do not spontaneously combust.
Cigarette ends ?
I am to the point that I think “Balkanization” should happen in the U.S. If the conservative provinces were to join with the conservative states below them, we would be a powerhouse. I envision something like this: Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba (?) and perhaps eastern B.C. join with eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Arizona (?) Utah, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri… most of the Southern states… you get the picture. I hope something like this happens within my lifetime.
Me too!!!!
Perhaps we should do away with the old Left/Right distinction and adopt a ‘One size fits All’ vs the ‘Go my own way’ distinction? Or do we argue that this is just a re-interpretation of Left/Right clumpers vs splitters?
My sense is we have a uniparty in the UK and that isn’t going so well.
Perhaps the Alberta community just want to see somebody who looks like them when they see Prime Ministers ‘representing’ them, and not somebody from a different community.
Surely the Alberta community has a right to govern itself.
You did hear Smith comparing COVID restrictions to Hitler, right?
And ?
There is little support in Alberta for indepence: Support for independent Alberta drops to 23 per cent: pollPublished Sep 02, 2022 • Last updated Sep 02, 2022 •
Article contentUCP leadership candidates flirting with the separation factions of the party are playing with fire.Article contentAccording to a poll released by Research Co. on Friday, only 23 per cent of Albertans support the province becoming an independent country. The total has dropped two percentage points since it was last conducted in February 2021. Seventy per cent of respondents oppose the idea.
Article contentMario Canseco, president of Research Co., said the rhetoric behind ideas like the Sovereignty Act may be good for selling memberships, but it is a short-sighted play.
“It’s the kind of thing that generates headlines, particularly within the context of a leadership race,” said Canseco. “But it’s not the kind of thing that is going to attract mainstream Alberta voters to say, ‘I’m going to get a membership of the UCP because this is exactly what I want to see happening.’”
The online poll was conducted Aug. 21-23 and received 700 adult respondents. It has a margin of error of 3.7 per cent an
With all the wildfires ravaging Alberta, the Alberta government does not believe in climate change?
You need three things for a fire.
Fuel, air and a source of ignition.
Wildfires are caused by lightning which is rare, carelessness or arson.
Cardboard will spontaneously ignite at 427 degrees C.
Since when does the the temperature in Alberta reach that level ?
How about THINKING for a change instead of parroting nonsense from
Green eco-loons ?
So how come the weather is hot and dry? For weeks?
It’s called the summer.
It’s nothing to do with climate change and climate change is natural anyway.
Smith won with a razor thin majority of the votes in Calgary – apparently only 3000. Her recent public statements show that she is a Trumpian idiot. Anyway, none of the last seven Alberta conservative premiers has finished their mandates. Smith will be on the rubbish heap of history within three years.
Are you happy with soy boy Trudeau ?
Trudeau has lasted ten years.
Ten years too long. He’s a fascist.
Canada is an irrelevant backwater.. white Africa.
Early prize for stupidest comment of the day!
It’s about right.
Oh Nicky – your words cut like knives!
Smith is utterly inept. There is literally zero chance of any serious separatist movement in Alberta. There may be some legitimate grumblings about federal energy policies but only the far right crazies talk about separating and that has more to do with their obsessions (vaccines, religious nonsense) than anything else.
The article also fails to note that the UCP lost a lot of their majority and a number of cabinet ministers lost their seats.
Smith is inept in comparison to what? Separatist sentiment here is vey low right now, but that can change quickly, especially if the feds start shutting down oil and gas and agriculture.
Don’t forget salmon farming – they are shutting down indigenous owned salmon farms in BC. I guess reconciliation for Trudeau stops at the fake tears and a teddy bear photo op.
I’m neither an anti-vaxer not a religious nut-case but I’m sick and tired of ‘woke’ idiots like Trudeau jamming his BS on the rest of us. We’d be better off on our own.
Alberta is to Canada what Castle Point in Essex is to the UK : the most right wing leaning place.
This article is therefore bullshit. Retract it, and publish a similar thing back when some resonnably centrist place (say Newfoundland) switches to Cannuck-Tory
It was a very close election. The left-wing NDP won 39 seats to 48 for the UCP.
Newfoundlanders aren’t centrist – they will suck whatever t*t they think will produce the most milk. They voted Liberal despite the importance of oil to their economy. And it was a good bet since Trudeau bailed out their bankrupt Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project.
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