San Francisco’s shoplifting epidemic is shocking to behold. But we shouldn’t imagine that the same couldn’t happen here. In fact, we’re well on our way. According to the British Retail Consortium, theft from stores across 10 UK cities is up by 26%. More, “incidents of violence and abuse against retail employees have almost doubled on pre-pandemic levels.”

On Tuesday, Asda Chairman Stuart Rose told LBC that “theft is a big issue. It has become decriminalised. It has become minimised. It’s actually just not seen as a crime anymore.”

In the absence of an adequate response from the authorities, retailers are beginning to take defensive measures. For instance, home furnishings company Dunelm is now locking up duvets and pillow cases in cabinets; Waitrose is offering free coffees to police officers to increase their visibility; and Tesco plans to equip staff with body cameras. 

The “progressive” response to this phenomenon isn’t quite as deranged as it is in in the US. Nevertheless, British liberals have responded as expected. A piece in the Observer is typical. You’ll never guess, but apparently it’s all the Tories’ fault: “Starving your population and then ‘cracking down’ on it for nicking baby formula or a can of soup can start to make a government look rather unreasonable.”

But as the writer ought to know, the issue here isn’t the desperate young mum hiding a few groceries in the pram. Nor is it the schoolboy pilfering the occasional bag of sweets. Rather, the real problem is blatant, organised and sometimes violent theft of higher value items. Criminals who never previously thought they could get away with it increasingly now do — thus presenting a material threat to retail as we know it. 

But instead of addressing the issue head-on, the writer blames the victim: “Once goods were kept behind counters, but since the birth of large supermarkets they have been laid out near the door, ready for the taking.” How terribly irresponsible of them! On the other hand, perhaps the open display of goods isn’t just a convenience for customers, but instead the hallmark of a high trust society. 

In fact, modern shops are a minor miracle of civilisation: public spaces, stacked high with products from all over the world, that passing strangers may freely inspect and handle, but which aren’t looted by anyone who feels like it.

Surely, that’s something worth defending. But if you’d prefer to abandon retailers to their fate, then don’t moan when they do what it takes to survive. Some will close, of course, and others will move their operations online. Those who stay open will guard themselves and their stock behind plexiglass and electronic tags. And then there’s the hi-tech solution: the fully automated and completely cashless store, in which customers have to be authenticated to even get in. 

Remember that retail facilities like this already exist. One day, when they become the norm, we’ll remember what shops used to be like. Then, we’ll ask why no one stood up for them.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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Most Britons think that World War III is likely in the next decade, according to new polling.

YouGov found that 53% of the population think a global conflict is probable in the next 5-10 years, a 12-point increase from a year ago. A total of 16% believe this outcome is “very likely”, while 37% believe it is “fairly likely”. Less than a third of respondents (32%) think World War III beginning in that timeframe is unlikely, including 7% who consider it “very unlikely”. Last year, the proportion of voters who thought the outcome was unlikely stood at 42%.

This attitude is shared across different age groups. A majority of those aged 25 and over think World War III will take place in the next decade. The only age group surveyed where there is no such majority is the 18-24 demographic, yet there is still a plurality (46%) who see an imminent global conflict as likely. Women are significantly more likely than men to hold this view at 59% to 46%. While only 22% of women believe that a third world war is unlikely to happen in the next few years, this figure rises to 41% among men.

Additionally, over half of Britons (54%) say they have little to no confidence in the UK military’s ability to effectively defend the country. Only 36% have confidence in the armed forces in the event of another global conflict, including 5% who express “a great deal of confidence”. Reform UK voters are least likely to have confidence in the army, at 22%. Older age groups are also far more skeptical of the British military: 65% of over-65s claim they have little or no confidence in the armed forces, compared to 40% of those aged 18-24.

The polling was carried out this month against the backdrop of debates over whether Britain should involve itself in the US-Israeli war against Iran. YouGov data from the beginning of March, shortly after the initial strikes, showed that a plurality of British voters opposed the action (49%) compared to 28% who supported it. Asked the same question a week later, the proportion of respondents who opposed the US-Israeli operation rose to 59%. While Reform UK and Conservative supporters backed the strikes by a majority and plurality respectively, an opposite view was taken by voters for the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and Greens across both surveys.

While the new YouGov figures about a potential third world war mark a rise in public fears since 2025, the same pollster found in 2024 that 53% of Britons thought such a conflict would take place within the next decade. A plurality said that a Western alliance would triumph over combinations of opponents including Russia, China and Iran.

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is UnHerd’s Deputy Editor, Newsroom.

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