July 7, 2020 - 3:37pm
Given the outsized attention Britain’s political class devotes to discussions of American policing methods, you’d assume the politics of our own nation were broadly stable. You’d be wrong. Recent polling underlines the fragility of the union in which we live, with 54% of Scottish voters and 25% of Welsh voters now backing independence, and 45% of Northern Irish voters backing union with the Republic. New Labour’s gamble that devolution would defang the independence movements in Britain’s Celtic nations seems to have dramatically backfired: instead, the result seems to be that London’s media pays far less attention to the currents threatening our union than they should.
But more interesting than all of these poll results is the revelation that 27% of voters in England would back English independence from the United Kingdom. On the face of it, the fact that independence for England has a wider popular base than that for Wales, with its own longstanding independence movement, devolved parliament, unique national language and culture, seems startling. There is, after all, no meaningful political campaign for such an outcome, very little discussion of what this would mean or how it would work, with even the notion of English independence seeming until now solely the preserve of a minuscule and eccentric fringe. So what’s driving this emotion, and is it worth taking seriously?
Digging into the statistics, the most striking thing about the recent polling is its sheer conservative-ness. Among Tory voters in England, 49% of those who have an opinion would support an independent England, as would 48% of the over-65s. Cross-referenced with Brexit data, we see that a startling 56% of English Leave voters support breaking away from the union, compared to only 17% of Remainers. This is the bedrock of the Tory base and a startling shift for the Conservative and Unionist party, which has yet to publicly address these trends, let alone begin to reckon with them.
What’s very unclear is whether this newfound English nationalism is reactive against the UK’s other independence movements or is being driven by a long-dormant and now stirring sense of English nationhood in itself. Certainly, devolution made the English Question more salient, raising English awareness of the constitutional disparity between the UK’s largest and most populous nation and those of the Celtic fringe.
On an anecdotal level, many English voters have been alienated by the Scottish independence debate, coming to the conclusion it’s better to leave a loveless marriage on your own terms than hold out for your disenchanted spouse to finally commit to a decision. Equally, many English voters resent the spending imbalance by which English taxpayers subsidise the relative largesse of the devolved nations towards their voter base while bearing the brunt of austerity themselves. Yet attempts to offset the imbalance and preserve the union by offering devolution to England’s regions have been broadly rejected by English voters: if and when England goes it alone, it will do so as a whole.
Perhaps a devolved English parliament would dampen these nationalist stirrings, though the evidence from Scotland and Wales implies the very opposite. An unavoidable constitutional reckoning of some kind is on the horizon, and even if the final break is decided in Edinburgh, a startling number of voters south of the border will relish the result. English nationalism was for decades the dog that hadn’t barked; but with English conservatives now beginning to view the breakup of the UK as more an opportunity than a threat, our politicians and media will need to start taking the English Question seriously, whether to defend the Union or start shaping its replacement.
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SubscribeI was born and have always lived within the frontiers of the old land of Wessex. I know it intimately. I have travelled around it all my life since my childhood. . It is my homeland and I care for it. I do not care for those who now trash it and it’s history and for those who seek to govern it but openly hate it and it’s history and people.
I have nothing against Scotland being on it;s own and think that Ireland should have been one country years ago. As for Wales that has for so long been bound up with England and the border land so convoluted that it is best we stay together.
This current seeming almost hatred of their country by the governing and professional classes is like the raving of spoilt children. ‘Our past makes us cry and upsets us so get rid of it.’ ‘The English do not really exist ‘and all that crap. The sneering loathing of my land by the BBC .
Imagine if the Turks turned on their past. It would never happen. Nor would the Chinese. Or the Burmese . Or the Koreans or the Saudis or just about any well adjusted people. The rot is in the universities and the schools.In a class made stupid by education . Not in us ordinary people living as best we can in a place we are happy to call our home. All they are doing is to make a backlash all the more certaIn and all the more extreme.
“And gentlemen in England now a-bed shall think themselves accurs’d they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap, whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s Day!”
Henry V?
Edit; Just checked, the St Crispin’s day speach at Agincourt.
The very same, or as Shakespeare would have it.
It should obligatory in
all our schools to be able to declaim this by say, the age of thirteen.
Great speech, more known for the “Band of Brothers” than holding one’s manhood…
Yes, and off course from before Harfleur, there is also ” once more unto the breach dear friends, once more, or close the wall up with our English dead”.
Or from Henry IV, in the mouth of John of Gaunt, ” this blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England”.
By the way do you have a source for those 300 metre Ming ‘super Junks’ you spoke of a week or two ago?
As I said before even, HMS Hood was only 860′ 7″ or 263.3m, so methinks the Chinese maybe exaggerating.
The 300m is from Gavin Menzies book “1421”, but is probably overstated in length as Louise Levathes points out in her book “When China Ruled the Seas” that the shipyard discovered in Nanjing could only have built a ship with a maximum length of 200m, and the discovery also of a keel which would indicate a vessel around 180-200m in length.
If you have not read Gavin Menzies I would recommend, he is very imaginative but sometimes lets that imagination create a great story from scant evidence.
Louise Levathes is definitely worth the read, a much more historical treatise, less creative but no less imaginative.
Incredibly interesting all said.
Thanks for that. I read Menzies, ‘1421’, many years ago, but do recall his claim that the Ming fleet had circumnavigated the Globe. At the time, I thought Menzies had spent far too long at the bottom of the sea in one of HM Submarines; I still do.
However I have never heard of Louise Levathes, thank you.
Even a ship of between 180-200 metres is remarkable achievement.
The million dollar question is, if they really did ‘discovered’ America, why did they abandon it?
Seventy or so years later, the Portuguese and Spanish had no such inhibitions. It may turn out to have been the crucial factor in who ultimately, will dominate the Globe.
Yes indeed, but what inspirational stuff, Homer couldn’t have done better.
I’m starting to think a backlash is what they are after?
Your are probably correct, and the ‘traditional’ British/English response should be to ignore them.
However, as we still somewhat “confined to barracks” it is quite diverting, not say amusing, to torment them, don’t you think?
“This blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England”.
You know who.
An excellent resume of the internecine squabbles that currently beset the UK.
Frankly the Union is an 18th century anachronism, its putrid carcass bedevils our politics, to this very day.
Ulster should be jettisoned immediately. It costs England an absolute fortune, is a gross embarrassment, and should have been disposed of as long ago as 1922.
Scotland has served us well, but should also be relinquished if there is any real support for independence. However the thorny problem of the ‘golden Goose ‘ or perhaps ‘golden Sparrow’, of declining North Sea Oil revenue will have to be settled by International Arbitration. Expert opinion has it that Scotland will receive only what is proportional, and thus dreams of becoming another Norway, will, sadly, be dumbfounded.
As to Wales, despite its current bellicose politicos, and the complete inability to prosecute the “cottage burners” of the 1980’s, it seems there is no pregnant desire to throw themselves into the pit of eternal poverty, and thus the status quo should remain.
We do not need an English Parliament, the present one will do, minus the Scotch and Ulster MP’s. Additionally we should also rid ourselves of the absurd London Assembly and its preposterous Mayor. A dreadful dose of Blairite poison, if ever there was one.
‘New Labour’s gamble that devolution would defang the independence movements in Britain’s Celtic nations seems to have dramatically backfired:’
Everything New Label did backfired. Literally everything. Often to murderous effect as in Iraq and Afghanistan etc.
As for a devolved English parliament, I am not the first to say that the last thing we need is another chamber full of troughers and incompetents. (Just look at the dismally low standards of those who inhabit the Scottish, Welsh, and NI assemblies). It’s a great shame but the logical next step is to end the Union.
Labour supported devolution for it own benefit or so it hoped. Then the SNP appeared and Brussels sought to split us as the French have always sought..
I do not wish for the breakup of the Union. I believe it has served us well and should continue to do so.
However devolution is a mess, politicians in the devolved parliaments use their position to showcase the differences. They often do this very deliberately, when there is no need to do so. e.g., In Scotland, after Boris announced that people could meet in groups of six, Scotland decided on eight. At the same time they are demanding more money from the English.
It reminds me of spoilt children, who on reaching the age of 18, tell their parents that now they are adults they can do what they want. But, also expecting their parents to continue to pay for them.
On the matter of English nationalism, it does not surprise me it is on the rise.
Generally, politicians and the media have ignored or downplayed English symbols for years. The forms government/local authorities used would list every ethnicity but English – I became White British! Then there was the case of Emily Thornberrry, who sneered at the English flag. Then, recently there was the case on St George’s day, when Matt Hancock praised the Muslims for their forbearance during ramadan, but never mentioned the day of England’s patron saint.
Yes, mainly minor niggles, but all point in the direction of England being airbrushed out from our history.
So, over time, I am moving to wishing a rebalance of the present constitutional position. I hope that politicians and the media wake up to the problem of England being ignored, so that English nationalism does not become impossible to stop.
The cuntraryism of the devolved parliarments, whilst they still send MP’s who interfere with England and English issues in Westminster, is the perfect reason for destroying ‘Union’ as it is now and give the English their own parliarment. Only then, as equals, could a revised union be workable.
The question is what is in it for us? i.e. the English, nothing seems to be the never ending answer. Especially if you are in the lower classes. I literally can’t think of a single time where the English are not screwed in comparrison to the rest of the country.
Amongst the very many reasons the country decided to leave the EU was the failure of the Remainers to articulate believable and positive reasons for remaining. What believable and positive reasons are there for maintaining the Union?
The only ones that come to mind are about maintaining Great Power status. Not sure that’s necessarily a positive thing, though.
All the arguments made for leaving the EU apply even more forcefully to leaving the UK.
None.
Good bye and good luck Scotland and Wales. I wish you well with surviving alone in this big bad world. Missing you already.
What about Ulster?
It’s really quite simple: English nationalism has been stoked by the nasty racists amongst SNP supporters.
As for Wales, if the poll you quote is to be believed (always a necessary caveat), then support for independence is exactly the same as the level of support for devolution at the time of the referendum. Nothing to see here.
I am Canadian, and have no dog in this fight, but it would seem tragic indeed if the UK broke up. In his memoirs, John Major warned that Tony Blair’s devolution of powers to a Scottish Parliament might lead to the breakup of the Union, and now it looks more and more like he was right. The UK ceased to be a unitary state, but never really became a federation. From the comments, it seems some Englishmen wish to return to the unitary state model, with England as the successor state to the UK. Wouldn’t it be more logical to go to a full federation model, with England or English regions, given their own Parliaments? The concerns about having too many politicians are valid. Canada has ten provinces and three territories, and must be one of the most overgoverned countries in the world. However, there is nothing sacrosanct about the existing number of MPs or members of the House of Lords, which could be reduced to reflect their decreased powers.
If all of England had its own Parliament, the UK would be a federation, where one province in a federation had an almost unprecedented dominance over the others. The Isle of Man and the Channel Islands should also be brought into a UK Federation, although of course this would do little to resolve the dominance of England. On the other hand, England would be less dominant in such a federation than Serbia was in the Yugoslav Federation where the only other republic was Montenegro, and presumably NATO wouldn’t be doing everything it could to break the UK federation up.
With regard to Northern Ireland, it is maybe time to have a remapping of Ulster, with counties or lieutenancy areas voting on whether they wish to remain part of the UK, or be part of the Republic of Ireland. A qualified majority would have to support union with Ireland to lead to a change in boundaries. In the referendum on Montenegrin independence this was 55% and this was probably on the low side for defining a qualified majority. In the long run, one wonders if the Republic of Ireland won’t disappear, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will go back to being the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Whether there would then be two Parliaments or one Parliament in Ireland would be for the people there to decide.
It seems strange to me that the Mother Country for so many successful federations, most notably the United States, has never managed to become a federation itself.
I agree with every word of this.
The point about Ireland, in a long term horizon, potentially coming back into a new “UK” is a very interesting one (and I’m sure offensive to many Irish folk) – but I do believe that the moment the UK is dissolved as might be inevitable and would certainly appear to be healthy, socio-economic gravity will begin to bring the Home Nations back together again.
People often forget that there were some compelling strategic reasons for unifying the islands in the first place.
Ireland is going to become more woke than California. I would not want it joining England in anything
Great expression “and have no dog in this fight”.
How will English nationalism deal with the cultural race/immigration question which is what might well be driving it? Who can say?
England will have to have its own devolved assembly, which is the only way to answer the Mid-Lothian Question. After that, a Federation will eventually form. A later date will see the Republic of Ireland joining the Federation of the British Isles. It is the best way forward.
Although not in our lifetime.
I think the big mistake was having a union of separate nations at all. Should just be Great Britain and we’re all British with regional accents and counties. Absolutely sick and tired of nationalistic cr*P. This is an island. A unit. Ireland is an island. Geography matters.
History matters too
As a committed British Unionist,I believe that one third of the MPs for England,Scotland,Wales or Northern Ireland should be able to call a referendum on secession from the UK. I would regard any yes votes as a total disaster,being as I am a full integrationist.
Sorry but the 54% of Scotland wanting Independence is a myth, when you dig into the polls you’ll find they were requested by someone with an interest in Scottish Independence such as Wings over Scotland etc and the highest number of people polled that I’ve found is just 1,095 out of 5.8M… it’s hardly indicative of the views of Scottish Voters that don’t even want a 2nd Referendum!
Please don’t fall into the trap that the MSM have fallen into keep repeating the fixed and rigged polls…
I feel that all the various bits of the UK mentioned would be worse off going their own ways, including England.
The answer would be to preverse the nationa;l identities..as they are now and were throughout the Union by and large..the Scots, Welsh, English and N Irish identities are as well defined as the nationalal identities in virtually all countries and better than many…describe the differences between Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden’s identities for instance.
However I do feel a proper devolution should happen but be cross border… and more attuned to specific concerns and shared interests than some settlement based on medieval borders themselves a carry over from the Roman times.
As an illustration a devolved region from the Forth to Humber or Clyde to the Dee, bounded by the Pennines would be possible to envisage (notwithstanding the old Roman border and medieval adjustments).
The key thing in UK devolution has to be to have larger devolved entities that are capable of combining within a progressive and constructive structure, to counterbalance London’s centrifugal force.
England, Wales, NI and Scotland within the UK cannot be meaningfully devolved entities because England would be so overweight.
Inside England and Scotland, but also Wales as well, there are overweight regions (so South Wales vs North wales, which is then far more interconnected with Liverpool/Manchester…and it isn’t clear that if the Border counties of Scotland were given the choice in any massive break up process that they would not opt to be incorporated into England.
However the central problems of breaking the UK revolve around the unexpected outcomes (so Germany has become far more polarised politically by reabsorbing the East German territories) and also just how interconnected the UK is in so many ways that would need to be unpicked, in the way that has never happened for other countries..most of whom gain independence only after the utterly catastrophic shock of War and it’s aftermath, or as with the USSR, with a completely totalitarian system imploding. IN both cases people have to experience far worse things than we do today in the UK to make it worthwhile.
Even the National Grid, a favourite trope amongst Nationalists in Scotland is that England would need our power, the mainly onshore wind power, means that the turbines were buiolt in an integrated system BY the UK…if that splinters Scotland could be left with the world’s power generation system (over producing like mad a lot of the time..then producing zero some of the time) , and if unable to fund the constraint payments, one that could collapse in chaos.
Anyway…it’s an idea to produce a workabley devolved UK, rather than people looking at an obviously unworkable idiotic set up and using that to prove a modern devolutionary approach can’t work.
To answer your provocative question on Scandinavia, the Finns speak a completely different language to the others. It is closely related to both Estonian,Turkish, and Hungarian.
I think you will also find that both Denmark and Sweden have very strong nations identities, at least as strong as wee little Scotland.
You are on firmer ground with Norway and Finland, but even here can wee little Scotland match Sibelius and ‘Finlandia’?
Finally Norway has a long history of domination by both Denmark and Sweden but now has its just reward and is as “rich as Croesus” thanks to North Sea Oil, much to chagrin off course, of poor, wee little Scotland.
When will Londoners understand we are not “Northerners” or “Midlanders” or “East Midlanders” or any other region! We are Leicester (and Derby and Coventry and Leeds and Liverpool…) and if Iceland can be a completely independent nation with a population of <400k, why can’t the UK’s existing Unitary Authorites get devomax?
Stow-on-the- Wold would be independent?
No. UAs are County Councils or cities like Leicester, Derby, Nottingham etc that no longer sit under their respective County Councils (so Stow-on-the- Wold would be part of Glos UA). There will always be exceptions and there would need to be consultations (some have suggested Yorks as a devolved authority but Tykes should decide on that or an alternative e.g. Greater Sheffield, Greater Leeds etc; Rutland County only has a population of 30k: they may decide to go it alone anyway or rejoin Leics etc) but I would suggest any Local Authority that wants devomax should get it.
Oh dear, how sad. Thanks anyway.
If we can keep the UK’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council, ditch the Jocks, Taffs and Micks by all means. Otherwise, no.
I have to say, the constant whingeing by Stugeon has made me wish with all my heart for Scotland to gain ‘ independence ‘. Then I will get the popcorn in as she tries to keep the country afloat and begs he EU to take pity.
How does English nationalism break down geographically? I can’t imagine there will be much support for it in London, and to be honest I would prefer they go it alone as a city-state.
I don’t think there’s any grounds to say that devolution on a regional basis has been rejected by England. Labour scrapped the referendums after a single no vote in the North East, so it hasn’t really been tried. Jorvik likely would have voted differently, but never got the chance.
I also don’t see a problem with England splitting apart. What is so bad about the Heptarchy?
What percentage of the population of London are English?
I would check the census, but according to the ONS, English people don’t exist. It was 45% “white british” in 2011. So maybe 40% English then? It will be lower now.
It is not, culturally or ethnically, an English city. London is its own thing, and should be allowed to be its own thing.
There are two further factors that might be driving the rise in English nationalism and identity.
The first has been the EU’s desire to subsume the UK politically and impose a greater European identity without there being a democratic mandate in the UK for such an enterprise. Much of both the British elite and British institutions have been in favour of this EU project, thereby alienating much of the English population from the British elite and institutions, resulting in people searching for an alternative to being British and finding it in Englishness. Brexit may partly be a result of this, but it may also undermine the continued drift toward Englishness as European identity fades as a threat to that Englishness.
However, it is the rise of London as an economic and cultural power distinct from the English and which defines the English as the Other that may be the real answer. Many English people feel alienated from London and threatened by it, just as many in London feel threatened by Englishness and alienated from it.
Indulge me for a moment. Let me tell you a bit about my perspective; I think there are a lot of people like me around these Islands and we often get forgotten in this Game of Flags.
I live in Glasgow and was born here. I’ve also spent 5 years living in Newcastle. 1 year living in London, 1 year in East Sussex, and 3 years in Shetland.
I used to have a strong Glaswegian accent – one of those “slap you right in the face”, Scottish accents according to my good mate Dave – who is from Sunderland – I couldn’t understand a word he said either when we first met.
I come from a solidly working class background – there would be no hiding it in shops, pubs, taxis across the land. But before that, as a young kid I had a South Yorkshire twang since my mum and grandparents who looked after me a lot as a kid, were all from Sheffield. This proved occasionally problematic. My older brother and older sister both self-identify as English and always have. My mum self-identifies as Scottish, having now lived more years in Glasgow than Sheffield.
I literally once got a pint spat into my face and then chased out of a pub in Newcastle whilst watching an England World Cup match with friends and sounding a bit too Scottish when I went to the bar; people in East Sussex would often, bizarrely, bring up how Scotland is subsidised – I think expecting some kind of apology – as you did Aris. I digress here, but I assume you didn’t factor North Sea oil tax revenue into your equation, or you’d see that is just ain’t so (…One over-simplified cliche deserves another in response).
And when I went to Shetland the shoe was on the other foot, people would often tell me about how they craved independence from Scotland – the great oppressor – “if it’s good enough for the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man, why not Shetland? It’s actually OUR oil.”. They would say, in their almost Norweigan accents.
My wife is from New Zealand with dual UK / NZ nationality, and her dad who’s a 4th generation kiwi is ‘much more Scottish than I am, but also some kind of antipodean ANZAC Nationalist, depending on what mood you catch him in – or which well rehearsed part best suits the matter at hand.
Now I’m a professional engineer, successful in my field, and I think I’ve probably done most of the things I’m going to do. I shop in M&S and people think I’m posh. I’ve worked hard and been hungry to do so, some great people have given me opportunities and taught me things, and I’ve made the most of the chances I’ve had. I suppose this country, or these countries, have been pretty good to me. My kids will be better off growing up than I was.
So what’s the point I’m trying to make in this slightly self-indulgent ramble?
Arguing about Scotland and England and the UK, and getting upset about it all, and blaming each other, and all that stuff – it’s a complete mugs game. It’s all bollocks. Whatever flag you chose.
“New Labour’s gamble that devolution would defang the independence movements in Britain’s Celtic nations seems to have dramatically
backfired”
Because they didn’t anticipate the Conservatives going full English nationalist. You can’t hold a nation state together if the ruling party doesn’t care.
We’re on the brink of Brexit (no it hasn’t happened yet) and our foreign policy is already being dictated by the USA. We’ll soon be eating chlorinated chicken alongside hormone and anti-biotic stuffed beef (we could call it Beef Johnson), while suffering the same rates of food poisoning as the USA, which are10 times the current UK level.
The biggest catastrophe of the lost 2014 referendum was that it exposed Scotland to the lost 2016 EU referendum. Scotland would have muddled along in the UK within the EU for long enough, but the game has changed radically.
If we ever get to see the report on Russian interference into British politics, the one that BoJo is keeping well away from the defence committee, then a few eyes will be opened.
Sadly though I fear that it’s too late now, we’ve made our UK bed and we will have to lie in it. However, it’s not too late for us in Scotland to gently tell our erstwhile UK partners that maybe it’s time for separate bedrooms.
Excellent idea – but along with your separate bedroom, will you also start to pay your fair share of the mortgage?
I’m guessing by mortgage you mean the national debt and of course we will take ours share of that, along with our share of the assets (or what’s left of them). The big argument will be over the nuclear subs on the Clyde, we don’t want them so you’re welcome to them but it will take some planning by yourselves. You might get Wales to take them I suppose.
You guess incorrectly. I refer to paying your own way – something the Scots have failed to do for decades, as they suck at the teat of the English taxpayer.
BTW – there are plenty of locations in England for our nuclear subs, have you discussed your idea of moving them away with the thousands of Scots who rely on the base for their livelihood? No, I thought not.
They could be deployed to Plymouth, at vast expense, but it would be far cheaper to pay rent for Faslane, which I’m sure would be a very attractive option?
The alternative as you say might be Pembroke/Milford Haven, but the same costs as Plymouth would be the problem.
You’re already eating chlorine-washed salads from the EU, drinking chlorinated tap water and swimming in chlorine-treated pools. Why turn your nose up at chlorine-washed chicken?
In any case, you’re out of date. Only around 20% of US chicken production is chlorine-washed these days, so you can munch on without fear.
Because it’s not the chlorine that’s the problem. It’s the low standards that require chlorine washing to try to fix them.
Sir,
A review of available information lends one to determine that 1. It is difficult to compare food poisoning rates between countries, and 2. That most information obtainable indicate your assertion regarding the US and UK food poisoning numbers is BravoSierra! You seem, as do many of your fellow travelers whom I have encountered, to have a bee in your bonnet for the USA. May I suggest you obtain your food from Xi’s wonderful paradise of a country.
Our so called foreign policy has been dictated by the US since at least 1940, when WSC had to abase himself and grovel to obtain US funds to continue the War.
True, we did try to ‘go it alone’ at Suez, but in the event we very quickly slapped down and humiliated, as we so richly deserved.
However there are many advantages to be had from ‘sucking up’ to the playground bully, and what other option was there open to us?
“soon be eating chlorinated chicken”. Next ‘they’ will be forcing us to drink chlorinated water. Oh… hang on
Excellent article on CapX about chlorinated chicken, etc., including evidence! https://capx.co/4MhfJ Go read and then comment…