No one knows with certainty which trends the coronavirus will accelerate and which it will brake in the long-term. Some clever people are making some informed guesses, but I suppose most people naturally predict that their political prejudices will be proved right, after all.
I don’t know whether this will see a return to the nation-state or the end of global liberalism, as some argue; I oppose globalism where it mixes ruthless capitalism with wilfully naïve “imagine no countries” progressivism (or Marxism-Lennonism, as some wag called it). I don’t know if this tragedy will stop that, although I think we can expect that the west’s trade (and political) links with China will not be the same afterwards.
Personally, I’m not hopping with delight at the decline of liberalism; I see liberalism (in its modern sense) as a mildly annoying side effect of wealth, not its cause; it’s rather like obesity or Type-2 diabetes, but I’d rather live in a society where obesity is a public health issue than one where hunger is.
One thing I can see happening is coronavirus becoming a significant moment of integration in Britain. We are most likely going to see a sharp drop in immigration, for all the wrong reasons; even if flights are still coming in, because the elites are reluctant to stop movement even in the face of a deadly pandemic, it’s going to come.
After two decades of very high immigration, Britain is finally going to have a pause, again for all the wrong reasons. Even if that’s just for a year or two, it means that, for the first time in decades, minority communities are going to be cut off from the old country, and people who find themselves psychologically between the two are going to become even more British. In the US, the great pause between 1924-1965 led to the assimilation of Catholics and Jews who had until then relatively low intermarriage rates with Protestants.
On top of that, this is the first real national crisis that multicultural Britain has gone through together. Until the post-war period Britain was not a nation of immigrants, despite the BBC’s noble attempts to rewrite our past, and the crucial, historical moments that defined our story involved lots of people called Smith, Jones and Brown. This is the first such event, and on top of that the hero of the hour, Chancellor Rishi Sunak, is of East African Asian origin — all of which could make it a significant moment in our multicultural island story.
It may become a culturally significant event for that reason, and when this horror is all over, I look forward to the BBC adaptation of Love in an Age of Coronavirus, with Sunak played by Colin Firth or Idris Elba.