September 23, 2024 - 7:00am

It is unusual for Volodymyr Zelensky to be quiet — whether in his former life as a comedian and actor or now as President of Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian leader has been abnormally close-mouthed of late, notably reticent to go into detail regarding the “victory plan” he intends to present to US President Joe Biden and American officials this week.

Ukrainian sources have let on that the plan should “create such conditions and such an atmosphere that Russia will no longer be able to ignore the peace formula and the peace summit”, with references to Zelensky’s 10-point formula for a lasting settlement and his forthcoming conference in November.

But while Ukrainian officials may be keeping schtum on what is in the plan, they have been more communicative about what is not in there. Presidential Communications Advisor Dmytro Lytvyn denied claims in German media that it would include any partial ceasefire, stressing that “Ukraine is against any freezing of the war”. Similarly, Zelensky has pledged to avoid “frozen conflicts” akin to how low-level fighting in the Donbas rumbled on in spite of the Minsk Agreements. Senior presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak has also stressed that Kyiv does not envisage surrendering territory to Russia.

Zelensky has let on about the general topics, describing the broad points of his “victory plan” as pertaining to further security guarantees, the Kursk operation, “specific” advanced weapons and the joint development of Ukraine’s economy with its partners. There is additionally a fifth point for after the cessation of hostilities. Ukraine will use the plan and visit to continue pushing for approval to use long-range weapons to strike military targets inside Russia, after the issue was postponed until the UN General Assembly.

However, Biden is reportedly still unconvinced, with US officials wanting to see detailed plans of how Kyiv would use the missiles and how it would assist a broader military strategy. Indeed, it may already be too late for such permission to have any battlefield impact. Western officials believe Russia began moving aviation assets outside the long-range missiles’ ranges three months ago, slashing the number of potential targets, and there are too few Scalps and Storm Shadows for them to be deployed at volume.

​​Otherwise, Bloomberg has cited sources as saying the proposal also includes an official invitation to Nato at the end of the war, a clear pathway to European Union membership and a commitment to a sustained supply of advanced weapons. Another demand may be reducing the reliance on US-produced weapons by persuading the EU to allocate a significant portion of its Ukraine budget for military production within the country.

While one hopes for Zelensky’s success, it is hard to understand how some elements can truly impact the war. Kyiv reportedly intends to work with allies to apply economic, political and diplomatic pressure to coerce Moscow to the negotiating table, after Russia has spent two and a half years overcoming exactly that and is now winding down the clock until the US presidential election. Ukraine also allegedly wishes to bring in China and India, neither of whom are exactly allies. The Ukrainian leadership presumably intends to use its gains in the Kursk region as leverage, yet given how much more land Russia holds in comparison, one wonders how much Putin would really give up for Kursk, especially as he works on regaining it.

It is not difficult to see that the true target of Zelensky’s plan is not the Kremlin, but Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. The Ukrainian President wants his “victory plan” implemented by the end of December, before Biden leaves office in January, and — as he puts it — “while all the officials who want the victory of Ukraine are in official positions”.

Zelensky’s intention may be to use this document to push Moscow to the negotiating table. But all the good intentions in the world will fail in the face of a revanchist Moscow knowing there may soon be an American President eager to get the war “settled” before he even takes office.

After trying to gain the support of Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for his proposal, Zelensky will do the same during a meeting with Trump. It will be then — not around any table with Russia — that Zelensky will truly be bargaining with a difficult ally for the sake of his country’s future.


Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

BethanyAElliott