May 8, 2025 - 4:20pm
Arriving in Moscow to commemorate the 80th anniversary of victory in the Second World War, Chinese President Xi Jinping took the opportunity to pen an article in a Russian newspaper, praising how “eighty years ago, the forces of justice around the world, including China and the Soviet Union, united in courageous battles against their common foes”.
China is still coming to the aid of a warring Russia. Xi noted how “in the crucible of the war-torn years […] China, for its part, shipped much-needed strategic supplies to the Soviet Union” and, all those years later, talks between him and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are likely to focus on ensuring Beijing’s continued provision of drones and dual-use components for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
That may not be the end of China’s role in the war, however. While Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko has criticised the idea as “absolutely inappropriate and absurd”, China may be one of the few countries with both the military resources and Kremlin approval necessary to provide peacekeepers in a post-war scenario, given Russia’s repeated refusal to countenance Western troops being sent to Ukraine. Putin may today be interested in assessing Beijing’s interest in such a prospect.
For his part, Xi will also want to discuss the role of the DPRK in this war. The role of North Korea in the war is known to have made Beijing uneasy. Closer ties between Moscow and Pyongyang reduce Xi’s leverage over the North Korean leader by providing Kim Jong Un with another influential ally. What’s more, China has been concerned that the burgeoning friendship between Putin and Kim may encourage closer co-operation between the US, Japan and South Korea in East Asia, a risk to Beijing’s growing power in the region.
Ukraine is not the only battle on the minds of Xi and Putin. Both are grappling with US economic restrictions, whether sanctions in Russia’s case or Trump’s trade war in China’s. The two leaders will be eager to not only share notes about the best methods for handling the volatile US President but to demonstrate that they are economically beyond America’s control. Strengthening Russia-China economic co-operation will therefore be on the agenda, especially regarding the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, intended to transport Russian natural gas to China via Mongolia. This would increase Chinese purchases of Russian gas to offset the loss of European market share. However, China has previously insisted that the gas supplied should be at Russia’s heavily subsidised domestic rate. Sources claim that China, clearly hopeful of making progress, is willing to compromise and discuss a higher price.
While a parade commemorating 80 years since victory in the war is likely to be heavy on symbolism, among the pomp and pageantry there will be a message in particular for the US President. Trump has been open about his desire to separate the two countries in what would amount to a “Reverse Nixon” move. In October, he told Tucker Carlson that “the one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting. I’m going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that”. Standing side by side in Moscow, Xi and Putin will show that Trump has a lot of work to do.
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