October 29, 2024 - 1:15pm

In the final week of a presidential election campaign, the Republican candidate’s message is derailed by the remarks of a speaker at a partisan gathering. The speaker makes an inflammatory statement that offends a key voter demographic; in the end, it is enough to cost the Republicans a crucial swing state and hand the election to the Democrats.

This may very well end up as the story of the 2024 election, but it is actually a description of an election that took place 140 years ago: the race of 1884, which saw GOP frontrunner James G. Blaine felled by the infamous remark of Rev. Samuel Burchard, who described the Democrats as the party of “rum, Romanism, and rebellion”. The demographic in question were Irish Catholics who, angered by Burchard’s insult, turned New York State blue by the slimmest of margins. Grover Cleveland consequently became the first Democratic president since the Civil War.

In 2024, Republicans are facing an eerily similar scenario. At a Donald Trump rally at a sold-out Madison Square Garden in New York on Sunday, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean”. Puerto Rico is, of course, an unincorporated territory whose inhabitants are American citizens.

The fallout has been swift and far-reaching. In must-win Pennsylvania, where nearly 5% of the population are of Puerto Rican heritage, Spanish-language radio stations and informal social media have amplified Hinchcliffe’s joke among the local Borinquen community. A non-partisan civil society group, the National Puerto Rican Agenda, is set to publish an open letter urging the community not to vote for Trump, while Puerto Rican rapper Bad Bunny promptly endorsed Kamala Harris (his endorsement has previously moved the needle in the election for Puerto Rico’s governor).

Though Trump himself has yet to acknowledge the comments — he may do so at his Tuesday night rally in Latino-majority Allentown — his running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, simply shrugged it off. Privately, however, Republicans are worrying over the potential impact of this “unforced error” which could undermine Trump’s efforts at making inroads with the Latino vote.

The Republican nominee made historic gains with this demographic in 2020, including in North Philadelphia’s Puerto Rican-majority areas. Harris visited the same part of town on Sunday, touring Puerto Rican businesses and outlining her vision for the island. Hinchcliffe also made offensive remarks about Latinos in general and African-Americans.

In the remaining days until the election next Tuesday, is there anything the Trump campaign can do to avoid a repeat of 1884? For the GOP candidate to suffer the fate of unsuccessful James G. Blaine is admittedly unlikely. But, in an act of desperation, he could use his Allentown rally to announce his support for making Puerto Rico the 51st state. This would be a real October surprise.

Such a proposal, which is also up for a non-binding vote on the island, is generally associated with Democrats who believe its elevation to statehood would add to their strength. But if Republicans actually took up the cause and had the territory admitted under a Trump administration, it would all but seal the ongoing movement of Borinquen and Latino voters toward the GOP, fuelled by the growing alignment on socially conservative values and working-class identity.

The trouble for Republicans is that this organic trend, which has been years in the making, could be thrown off course by the unfunny jokes of an obscure comedian, ultimately costing the GOP the election. Hinchcliffe, who ironically has some experience mediating between presidents, may go down in history as the modern era’s Samuel Burchard. Of course, history tends to repeat itself — first as tragedy, and then as farce.


Michael Cuenco is a writer on policy and politics. He is Associate Editor at American Affairs.
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