October 15, 2024 - 11:45am

Just weeks ahead of the election, President Joe Biden is deeply conscious of his legacy. Abroad, he is grappling with two hot wars that broke out during his time in office; at home, he must contest with the deadliest hurricane to hit the mainland since Katrina two decades ago. As he smarts from the embarrassment of reluctantly ceding the nomination to Vice President Kamala Harris, the 81-year-old’s emphatic legacy-building will have policy consequences, for better or worse.

Just last week, the Financial Times reported that the US is preparing to push through a significant G7 loan to Ukraine despite Hungary thwarting conditions set previously by the Biden administration. “The US has been put under pressure to deliver the same amount the EU is planning to provide,” an EU official told the FT. “So much money is needed, and attacks in Ukraine are continuing. It’s a nightmare.”

This is not a war with an end in sight, despite years of vigorous effort on Biden’s behalf to fuel a Ukrainian victory. A multi-billion-dollar loan will not ensure Russia’s rapid surrender either. It could, however, help shift the momentum enough for Biden to leave office on a high note in January, and help curry favour with policy elites who will one day deliver critical judgments on his tenure.

Similarly, even as Biden works desperately to achieve a ceasefire in Israel, negotiations appear to be at a total impasse. Just last week, a Pentagon spokeswoman insisted, “I can tell you that we do not believe that deal is falling apart,” in reference to the latest iteration of ceasefire talks. Shortly afterwards, the Wall Street Journal published a major report revealing that “after months of saying a ceasefire and a hostage-release deal was close at hand, senior US officials are now privately acknowledging they don’t expect Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement before the end of President Biden’s term.”

It’s possible Biden will keep pushing hard to secure a deal in the Middle East, fuelled in part by the implications for long-term perceptions of his time in office. But given how unlikely that is, progress on Ukraine and domestic policy have become more important for him.

At home, Hurricane Helene’s death toll is now over 250 people. This was swiftly followed by Milton, which killed another 20 and caused millions of dollars’ worth in damage. Biden is battling the awkward tension between his Vice President running on a change platform while also campaigning on their purported successes. Harris, despite hailing Biden’s presidential achievements as “unmatched in modern history”, seems desperate to distance herself from ongoing wars, economic dissatisfaction, and the unpopular spike in immigration.

It all appeared to boil over last week during a briefing on Hurricane Milton, when Biden seemed to suggest Harris unfairly criticised Florida’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis. In the aftermath of that dust-up, Axios published a story which claimed that “the relationship between Kamala Harris’ team and Joe Biden’s White House has been increasingly fraught in the final weeks before Election Day”, according to “10 people familiar with the situation”.

Biden began his term by consulting with historian Jon Meacham, who helped write the President’s inaugural address. “The two bonded over their shared belief that Biden is a historically consequential figure in the fight to preserve American democracy,” Alex Thompson reported in 2023.

Back in 2021, Peter Baker of the New York Times wrote that “in the weeks before taking office, President Biden and his aides spent time digging into books about Franklin D. Roosevelt, both biographies and volumes exploring his iconic first 100 days, on the theory that no president since then has taken office with the country in a crisis quite so grave.” According to Axios, Biden actually started a sentence in a meeting with Meacham and historians just weeks after taking office by saying: “I’m no FDR, but […].”

It’s important to remember the conditions under which Biden was ousted from running again, and it’s unclear how lucid he is on any given day. From his earliest moments in office, though, the President and his team worked intentionally to build his legacy. Ultimately, it may have actually been legacy concerns that convinced him to pass the torch to Harris. Biden was stuck in a Catch 22: damned if he stayed and lost the election, damned if he dropped out and lost the nomination. His goal now is to make the most of it.


Emily Jashinsky is UnHerd‘s Washington D.C. Correspondent.

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