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→ Will JD Vance drag down Trump’s ticket?
The Republican Party’s moment in the sun didn’t last long. Donald Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance is currently polling at historically low levels for a vice-presidential pick: whereas previous candidates have polled around net +19 percentage points at this stage in the election, the Ohio senator is currently at -6.
A Trump victory has in recent weeks looked all but inevitable, between his survival of an attempted assassination and the Democratic Party’s forced shuffling-out of Joe Biden from the presidential ticket. His veep pick, in that context, must not have seemed like a terrible risk.
But now that Biden has withdrawn and the party is rallying around Kamala Harris, Trump reportedly regrets his choice — though his campaign denies it. Does anyone have Hulk Hogan’s number?
→ Tom Tugendhat most popular among Tory leadership candidates
Now that the adults are back in the room, there’s a Lord of the Flies-style fight for supremacy underway at CCHQ. If new polling is to be believed, and if we should stick to the literary analogy, then former security minister Tom Tugendhat is Ralph blowing the conch. New polling from Savanta shows that centre-right Tugendhat is the most popular candidate among the general public (an approval rating of -3) and 2024 Conservative voters (+21).
NEW Tom Tugendhat is the most popular Conservative leadership contender among both public (-3) & 2024 Conservative voters (+21)
The lowest scoring potential candidate of those surveyed was Priti Patel among public (-28) and Con voters (+7)
19-21 July
2,312 UK adults pic.twitter.com/gTa73ElXpr— Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) July 24, 2024
Meanwhile, the more Right-wing candidates are floundering at the bottom of the rankings. Former home secretary Priti Patel is really not popular with the public (-28) or Conservative voters (+7) and Suella Braverman is on -23 with the public and +8 with Tory voters. In second place is the moderate James Cleverly, followed by Kemi Badenoch in third.
According to the timeline set out by the 1922 Committee, there will be no party leader announced until early November, which means there will be no leader at the Conservative Party Conference. Is the party’s Right heading for a bruising rejection?
→ New Watergate scandal just dropped
There’s been another high profile break-in at the Watergate. Instead of wiretapping an opposition party, however, this time the intruders released maggots and worms and pulled fire alarms throughout the sprawling complex.
Washington’s Watergate Hotel was reportedly targeted for hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the Palestinian Youth Movement taking credit on social media. “Fire alarms were triggered for over 30 minutes on multiple floors to ensure that there will be no rest before Netanyahu and Congress disgrace themselves in front of the world,” the Instagram post claimed.
You’re gonna have to fucking shut up all down lock us up and we’re still not gonna fucking stop
BON APPETIT!! MAGGOTS RELEASED ON THE CRIMINAL ZIONIST’S WAR TABLE!
Palestine protestors manufactured chaos at the Watergate Hotel last night so that Netanyahu, Israeli Mossad… pic.twitter.com/AbTNHClzPX
— LisaMarie (@RedactedRosalia) July 24, 2024
Protesters have also staged a sit-in at the Capitol building ahead of Netanyahu’s scheduled speech, resulting in hundreds of arrests this morning. What would Nixon think?
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SubscribeI think Harris will win the Presidency; no real evidence as to why but I think Trump was solely targeting Biden and that avenue of attack has evaporated.
With regard to Vance, his CV seems inspirational and some of his views sensible but that probably isn’t enough.
As for Tory leader, Tugendhat is about as centre Right as Lord Cameron of Greensill who could only win an election by promising a Referendum on EU membership…far from a centre Right policy, in fact a Ukip policy. If he becomes leader the Tories stand no chance against Starmer Labour.
I have no real evidence of this either, it’s just a feeling, but I also kind of have this general sense that the whole Trump thing was a moment in time, and that moment has passed.
I would agree re Trump. Harris is a difficult opponent for him. If something were still to happen to Trump medically, stroke or other event, JD Vance alone would have the measure of Harris.
Yes I agree, but I still doubt that Vance could win.
Asking the public who they chose among a range of relatively unknown Conservative MPs is certainly no guide as to who would make an effective leader.
Left-leaning voters will inevitably vote for the most left leaning Conservative they have heard of despite the fact that their vote is irrelevant given that they would not vote conservative even if he or she was elected.
The message of the Labour landslide is that you only need 20% of possible voters or 33% of actual voters to win big if your opponents are sufficiently divided or apathetic because you utterly failed to deliver on your manifesto.
The conservatives just need a leader that reflects the views of a decent selection of the conservative members of the public and who is capable of generating sufficient enthusiasm for an achievable program.
Labour is the party of the bureaucracy the Conservatives have to be the party of those who pay for it and so have an interest in a smaller more efficient bureaucracy.
Let’s see how that works in a country where the numbers depending on the bureaucracy for income exceed the number of net taxpayers funding it.
You think we (the UK) are there?
JDV’s position on abortion is insane, scientifically, morally, and most germane to the topic under discussion – politically
Of course he regrets the pick. He regretted choosing Pence too, though not on (the first) election day. Turns out you need to get back into the White House before you can anoint your successor according to your own definition of “succession”. Vance may also have at least one losing presidential run in his future–mirroring Trump.