While campaigning for the presidency last year, Donald Trump threatened to impose 60% tariffs on China. Yet just days after his second inauguration last month, he stated that he would “rather not” place any further taxes on one of the US’s largest trading partners. Around the same time, he also detailed a successful phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, concluding that “it is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, and starting immediately!”
Just a couple of weeks later, however, the picture is different. After Trump introduced a 10% charge on Chinese imports this week, China has responded with tariffs of its own, targeting liquefied natural gas, coal and crude oil.
Everything we have seen so far suggests that the two powers are in the midst of a preliminary — albeit significant — skirmish, in which mutual bluster, subterfuge and posturing will become the new normal. Trump wants a new deal with China following a gradual US decoupling process, and Beijing knows it. Chinese markets in the Global South, from Latin America and Africa to the Middle East and the rest of Asia, have expanded in recent years, yet Xi still recognises the countries’ importance to one another.
Figures for bilateral trade between America and China have slowly inched down in the last couple of years, but they remain vast. In 2024, the total value of trade goods between the two amounted to around $532 billion, consisting of $131 billion in exports from the US to China and $401 billion imports the other way, amounting to a $270 billion trade deficit. Annual bilateral trade has totalled more than $500 billion for well over a decade.
The Chinese position may be softened by its current economic turbulence. Local government debt, youth unemployment and the housing market have all been under stress. Growth last year came in at 5%, according to official figures, though some doubt it was anything near as high. China would prefer to strike a deal, and could open more of its sectors up to US investment, take increased numbers of American goods, and make concessions to placate Trump without damaging its own economy.
The big question in all of this is whether the US President really has a clear idea of what he is looking for, and whether he is sufficiently nimble to take any of the strategic opportunities presently available. As the chief trading partner to more than 120 countries, China is a significantly larger player than Mexico and Canada — and presents far more complexity. America is important to Beijing, but not all-important. And despite its current woes, China may well have more grit for a fight ahead than America does, simply because the stakes for the nationalist government — should it be seen to cave in to Washington — are so high.
What is certain is that if a US-China trade war really does kick off, the rest of the world will be impacted. Together, the two countries constitute about 43% of global GDP, so their bilateral argument is invariably everyone’s business. If Trump is thinking tactically (and we have to hope that he is), his current threats will be a prelude to outlining a Sino-American deal rather than a perpetual standoff. China’s government is full of adept negotiators, and can handle this. But if he is just playing games with no clear outcome in mind, it may prove a costly mistake — not just for the US, but for everyone else, too.
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SubscribeI’m going to make a prediction about the relationship between China and America—you heard it here first.
China is technologically ahead of America, but they’re holding back. They’re keeping their advancements under wraps to play their hand strategically. The free IP and open-source technologies they’re sharing are just a distraction because they have something more important up their sleeve. They want to observe how America reacts—whether it humbles itself and pulls back from its aggressive, homogeneous stance.
China is ahead in quantum computing. You can see it if you go there—the technology is more advanced. Many Chinese-educated Americans are returning to China because they can earn more there. China has surpassed America, and that’s why America is acting out.
This behavior isn’t new. Think of it like being around someone who is highly regulated and more powerful than you. You become dysregulated, frantic even, especially if you refuse to admit their strength. When you’re in the presence of someone grounded and powerful, and you lack humility, you start to act out. That’s what America is doing right now—acting frantic because China has technology that America doesn’t yet possess.
Mark my words: 2025 will be the year China unveils its technology against America, and that’s when America will finally be forced to quiet down.
So you are saying that China has taken tremendous strides in quantum computing and other technology but that is being kept under wraps. If so, how do you know about it?
You ain’t got a clue how far China is ahead here a few examples
1. 7 yrs ago AI traffic control introduced in one city now plans to roll out Nationwide
2 . China looks at EV battery charging this way
The recharger finds you
And all the infrastructure in place to ensure that
Go Research you in for a big fright
Whilst in The West it’s the desperate driver on a long trip who
Sweat profusely as they observing the charge remaining drops to critical levels and locate a working recharge point
There no doubt that by 2030
99 % of all vehicle Yes all Inc Heavy construction plant shall be EV in China
And by over 80 % of Global total
It’s akin to the Horse and Cart being replaced with the Internal
Combustion engine
and the West is going to be Utterly
Dependent on China for EV
tech and drop the Planet destroyer Internal combustion engine and all through their own gross Stupidity and inaction
3. China has 8.8 million STEM
Graduates at work in it’s Economy
4 Chinese education system undergoing massive changes to
Be better equipped for The New Era and rapid technology changes
5 . Deep Seek was not achieved
By clever rethinking
But more importantly The LLM
component was achieved by way of a complete New Huwaei
Chip ( That’s really spooking The West now )
Now for the military and rather go on and on
Here a few examples and Very
Recent along with results of US and UK reviews of China’s Naval capabilities
All what follows only concerns
China’s Type 055 D destroyer
Of which when the first in class was commissioned years back
Western Naval experts dismissed as a joke in that it was a big heavy hull filled with
3rd rate technology and Weaponry
Not so now
So here goes
1. In June 24 In the South China Sea . China were conducting Naval exercises around a disputed Island chain
So US Navy dispatched a Task force to observe and gather information inc.a Arleigh class destroyer particularly dispatched so that a Type 055 D destroyer was in the Chinese group along with 2 accompanying remote unscrewed large Naval vessels could be evaluated
Result as soon as The US vessels switched their Radars and weapon guidance systems on
Within a few minutes All the US vessels found out that all electronic capabilities were all
Foggy, the GPS blanked , Unable to track any incoming
Aircraft or any missile launch
But more importantly completely unable to Navigate
Conclusion they departed using
Sextants to run away
Source of info Leaked Pentagon report
2. A RN think tank intelligence unit concluded that China’s Type 055 D is the most formidable warship upon the high seas
3 . After this incident both the US and China conducted there own virtual Naval war games
One of those virtual games involved 1 Type 055 D and 2 of China’s most modern large uncrewed attendent Vessels
Which sailed towards a US flotilla of 8 surface warships
As they approached China sent Drone swarms into the Air
The US launched 33 cruise missiles ( $ 3 million each ) to
counter act
But once more found out quickly that all their electronic
Systems were useless
Leaving them completely defenceless from the D055 and it’s 142 vertical missile launcher
Conclusion by 2030 China shall have 30 Type 055 destroyers
Whilst The US who still has to find the funding for a replacement for the ageing Arleigh class destroyer
Just like the way they reacted to China’s 5th generation Stealth J 20 mighty Dragon
Stealth fighter considering it’d heavy airframe to render it useless
Just like the West’s initial reaction to the Heavy D055 destroyer
Now they know why both were built heavy
It was so the design could do easily be fitted out with the most modern of systems and weaponry quickly and cost effectively so
Now as I tell all. Go study China’s 5000 year History
Along with Sun Zhu
‘ Art of War ‘ ( peace )
Then you shall obtain a smidgen of information as to
How and why China is today and where it’s heading
And it’s NOT World domination
You forgot to mention China’s claim to have an advantage in nuclear fusion.
That would be the biggest game-changer of all, a limitless source of energy. I’m sure the US will be keeping track of these developments, and the transfer of knowledge isn’t unidirectional.
You’re right. The tariffs aren’t high enough. You’ve convinced me!
Hilariously bad take. We’ll mark your words indeed. Bring your appetite.
Aside from being plain wrong, that isn’t actually any prediction at all about the US-China relationship – it seems you forgot to actually write up that part of the argument.
It’s possible that China is ahead in a small number of areas. But across the board – really ?
China is in possession of a newly developed sophisticated secret technology for the manufacture of more advanced toasters
Two things coming out of China recently make me think the US needs to worry that we are not being innovative enough, as we are depending on big companies in oligopolistic industries to innovate and neglecting startups.
One is DeepSeek, a large language AI model that was developed by a company barely a year old. It is competitive with other models developed over a much longer period and at greater expense. We are not seeing anything like this in the US.
Another is the Xiaomi electric car that Ford CEO Jim Farley imported and drove last year. That car was designed by a smartphone company with an innovative “user experience” and is capable of 0 to 60 in 2.9 seconds, with a 500 mile range and a $30,000 price tag. From initial concept to design to first sale took about 3 years. Again, we are not seeing anything like this in the US.
Innovation happens when new products are continually coming onto the market, and new companies come out with new products much more quickly than old companies. New companies have to take risks, while old companies can avoid them.
The US has the big companies, and there’s no need to break them up. What is needed is to add more new companies to the ecosystem. China is doing better at having a vibrant ecosystem. We need to match them.
Another ten cents in the cash register for this fellow.
Here is my prediction: you’re off your head.
(There is no discernible benefit to quantum computing outside of some niche use cases – nor will there be because it’s not actually doing anything new or useful – it’s just faster ). I tell what was actually useful over the last 50 years? one word. Dentistry.
oh, and running water.
Modern fertilizers. I am also deeply appreciative of the synthetic motor oil that means my car can sit for eight hours in -35 C temperatures without me needing to go warm it up during my coffee break.
Donald Trump has been in office for two weeks now and some things have become at least a little more clear. He’s going to do some good by shaking up Washington DC and goring some sacred cows. But he’s also going to do a lot of bad by pursuing foolhardy policies like the snake oil Bobby Kennedy is selling.
This whole tariff business is not serious. China will not be cowed into making real changes by bluff and bluster. Donald Trump is just throwing out smoke and putting up mirrors. A waste of time.
Where there is real hope is with Gaza and Ukraine. We could use a real president turning his attention to those countries. We’ll see if Donald Trump still knows how to practice the art of the deal like a master and can make progress on ending those conflicts.
Myself, I have jumped off the Donald Trump bandwagon and regret having voted for him.
What is the snake oil that RFK is selling?
Bobby Kennedy is a modern-day Trofim Lysenko. Let me start with just one example. Bobby Kennedy said this during an interview on a major news network in June 2023:
That is delusional. People who think like that are the ones who gave rise to the term “tinfoil hats”. I have personal knowledge of this — my father spent his 40-year career in bioelectromagnetics investigating the effects of radio-frequency radiation on the human body and I know from his research that the science is clear. Many other scientists and engineers did too. They found that there is no causal link between non-ionizing radiation and human health.
Bobby Kennedy says there are thousands of studies showing a link between radio frequency radiation and disease, but there are no such studies. None. Not even one. Bobby Kennedy knows that, but he lies about it anyway, in a very persuasive, pathological way. He’s very charismatic and convincing (like all successful trial lawyers). But in his case that’s bad, because he’s selling snake oil, not a real cure.
And it’s not just 5G cellphone radio waves that he lies about. He has falsely claimed the following as well:
— vaccines cause autism and other diseases
— genetically modified foods are harmful
— Wi-Fi radiation breaks down the blood-brain barrier and causes cancer and other diseases
— Roundup causes cancer
— ultra-processed foods cause obesity and chronic diseases
— HIV is not the cause of AIDS
— high-fructose corn syrup is more harmful than table sugar
— etc., etc.
Bobby Kennedy has no training or experience in science, medicine or public health. He’s never held an executive office in any corporation or in government. As far as I can tell, the only real job he has ever held was as an assistant district attorney in Manhattan over 40 years ago, and he had to quit that job when he didn’t pass the bar. (And he was arrested shortly after that for being high on heroin on an airplane, an addiction he battled for 14 years.)
The rest of his long career consisted mainly of playing off the Kennedy name in lawsuits and in writing books and speaking. Bobby Kennedy does seem like a likeable guy, and he has lots of friends among the elite. He’s also been a womanizer his whole life (with great success). He has a magnetic personality and a silver tongue. Those people skills make him a good trial lawyer and a good campaigner.
But they make him a bad choice for a position like the secretary of health. I’m not a fan of Tony Fauci, but at least he and Francis Collins were top-notch scientists and top-notch executives. Very knowledgeable and very experienced. Though they made some blunders, overall they did a good job. I don’t think Bobby Kennedy would come even close to them.
Bobby Kennedy is like Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, Tulsi Gabbard, Naomi Wolf, Vivak Ramaswamy, and others like them. Interesting to listen to, with some fresh ideas that are welcome in a stale political environment, but not a person qualified to be in government, or particularly, to lead an evidence-based government agency.
Do I think Bobby Kennedy would be a disaster as health secretary? Not really. People in that position like Xavier Becerra in the Biden administration have set a very low bar that is easy to clear. I just think he would be ineffective and embarrassing. He would do no good in an important job where we need someone doing a whole lot of good. He’s laughable, and even if only figuratively and not literally, looks silly wearing his tinfoil hat.
I agree that RFK has some wildly bizarre ideas about a lot of things, but lots of people have crazy ideas. In fact, the institutions have been infected by bizarre narratives about a lot of things, including gender and hysterical climate change. And the people in charge have been allowed to act on these ridiculous beliefs and implement a wide variety of policies that have caused harm across the west. RFK won’t be banning vaccines or 5G or cell phones. The qualified people in charge of health care today have been a disaster. He can’t possibly do a worse job. At a minimum, I am confident he will address the institutional rot and corruption that have paved the way for incompetent govt we see today.
I have always found your comments to make a lot of sense. Not this one.
Jimmy is too committed to his shibboleths to acknowledge that putting a quack like Kennedy in charge of anything is a catastrophic mistake. You might as well put an alcoholic sex criminal in charge of the Department of Defense. Oh, hang on!
No, people like Jimbo would rather see an incompetent fool who agrees with them in charge than competent rational leadership that doesn’t follow his far right obsessions. That’s how you get a moron like Trump as president..
He’s nothing like Lysenko. Lysenko was an ideologue that thought the Proletarian Science was a real science. He recommended planting crops closer together thinking they would cooperate instead of competing for water like a good Communist plant.
The secretary of HHS was Xavier Beccara. Fauci and Collins were at the NIH. The NIH nominee is Jay Bhattacharya. You’re acting like Kennedy’s role is doling out medical advice as opposed to analyzing health trends found in empirical data.
Whether somebody has wild thoughts on a podcast is irrelevant. Hes not even committed to most of his wild thoughts. He merely poses the possibilities. Something that used to be a hallmark of libetalism.
We’ve been through 5 years of suppressing Wrongthink. All it does is promote infinitely more conspiracy theories. You need to allow people to think out loud in a free society.
Bobby Kennedy is like Trofim Lysenko in that he makes scientific claims that are incorrect, and urges policies based on those claims. At least Trofim Lysenko was a scientist who had some sense to his theories — he believed in a strict Lamarckism instead of Mendelian genetics. Bobby Kennedy knows nothing about science, and his theories make no sense. Neither man should have been or be in a position of implementing policies related to the claims they make.
In particular, Bobby Kennedy’s views about cellphone and Wi-Fi radio waves breaking down the blood-brain barrier and causing cancers and other diseases are as bizarre as any claims Trofim Lysenko made about biology. And those claims Bobby Kennedy made were not wild thoughts on a podcast. Those are claims he has made repeatedly in court, on the record, and claims he still makes today.
Bobby Kennedy’s views on vaccines are the same — not wild thoughts thrown out in a podcast but lies made repeatedly over many years. Years ago when Bobby Kennedy found there was no more money to be made from environmental lawsuits he switched over to vaccines and health and has since made tens of millions of dollars from lawsuits, speeches and books on those topics. He’s a combination of a trial lawyer and a snake-oil salesman, and he’s a good one. But he profits from that, society does not.
I know Xavier Becerra was health secretary — I said that in my comment. He does indeed set a low bar for being a health secretary, but at least he had some experience in public health and management. Bobby Kennedy doesn’t have any relevant experience, not in science, not in public health, not in government, not in public or private executive management. He doesn’t even know the difference between Medicare and Medicaid.
I mention Tony Fauci and Francis Collins because many people have criticized the decisions they made during the pandemic. Rightfully so, as those two did make some blunders that had a huge impact on people’s lives. But at least their blunders were not made because of anti-science views like Bobby Kennedy has. He’s a disaster waiting to happen.
I’ve studied Lysenko in depth. I think his story needs to be known so I appreciate the reference even if I reject the comparison.
Nearly the entire Democratic Party is made up of trial lawyers. That’s why they’re so good at using bureacracy to create endless funding cycles and imbed their own “holistic” experts into the credentialing apparatus.
What we’ve witnessed with the interconnected (holistic) approaches of “public health experts” since Covid is the probably the most absurd application of empirical science at scale in human history.
RFK was a hero during Covid at a time when people were too scared to speak. He was among the few that helped peel back the onion. Lockdowns, Six foot rules, excessive masking, school closures, race essentialism. I didn’t even mention the suppression of the lab leak.
The Expert Hierarchy is not functioning and in desperate need of change. How many scientists were silenced on issues we now accept as correct observations. Why were thsy silenced and who was silencing them?
I use the term “trial lawyer” too loosely. I meant by that the kind of lawyer who brings high-profile cases based on dubious grounds and wins huge verdicts by misleading juries, often taking 40% to 50% of the verdict as fees. They are charismatic and convincing, and they lie like the devil himself.
Other than Bobby Kennedy, the only trial lawyer like that I can think of in politics is John Edwards, the Democratic nominee for president in 2004 with John Kerry who later ran on his own in 2008. The man was a cad, but before he became governor in North Carolina he was well known for his skill in winning big medical malpractice cases while lying about the facts and the law.
Bobby Kennedy is just like John Edwards.
I understand the nature of class action lawsuits and how fees are taken. Generally speaking, I share your disdain. I don’t consider myself a “populist.” I don’t believe in nominating a bunch of radicals to disrupt the status quo just to destabilize the government. I’m claiming it’s already wildly imbalanced and unstable. The Administrative State is not currently functioning. It’s just looting the treasury through corporate capture.
The relentless character attacks on Kennedy are just like the attacks on Trump. Are they extremely flawed individuals with history of grift. Yeah but they also understand how the institutional game is played where legal process barriers block sensible reform. People in these positions need to be bold and knowledgeable enough to point out where and why the rot exists.
Tell me how exactly a DEI bureacracy which mixes social science with hard science could take hold in the medical field if the Public Health apparatus is functioning properly?
Mr Danger’s comment on Robert Kennedy Jnr clearly shows that he, Mr Danger is ignorant and is ‘as thick as mince and as lazy as a toad’.
There is little doubt Trump has a clear outcome in mind, but in any negotiations there is a deal of playmaking.
Nobody gets all they want but with such a massive deficit with China Trump needs to narrow the gap and China needs to be less protectionist.
“There is little doubt Trump has a clear outcome in mind”
Au contraire, Dicky! Trump has no clue of what he is doing and his idea of policy I making it up as he goes along. The supremely gullible, including you, seem to think this is some sort of art of the deal. Its not – its just chaos.
There’s a reason why Trump businesses failed continually – the man is a clueless buffoon. Question is, who would be dim enough to be continually taken in by him? Can you answer that, Ricardo?
Personally I have no desire for my country to be involved with China in any way shape or form. They have put people in concentration camps. They have aggravated border disputes with India and with Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines in the South China Sea, which they claim completely in violation of established maritime law and over the legitimate claims of neighbors. They have demonstrated they are an aggressive nationalist state with a command economy. They have failed to honor many previous agreements and I have no faith that they will honor any new agreements. Their leader has broken precedent and changed the laws to make himself dictator for life. The Chinese form of government and much of the culture as it currently exists are inconsistent with American values about democracy and freedom. They refused to allow an independent investigation into the greatest public health crisis of our time. Their government is hostile to US interests. From what we know, their people are hostile to the US as well. The only thing the Chinese have ever been interested in is stealing our technology and using the wealth of short sighted elites to build up their own country. What, exactly, will it take for our government and media that there is no amount of money, trade, or business that justifies enabling these tyrants?
I hope Trump understands who and what he’s dealing with and I hope he has no illusions about what China is. He’s already made one deal with them that they failed to honor. There should be no ambiguity about the end goal. It should be complete decoupling as with the Soviets. Then we can better manage the conflict and avoid incidents and entanglements that could lead to warfare. That way we can protect what is ours and end this destructive cycle of enabling a hostile and dangerous regime. Other nations will have to make their own choices. I’m sure many will choose neutrality and that’s perfectly fine, but we have to reach a point where everybody, including the wealthy elites and multinational corporations, know that the playing both sides has to stop. Chinese firms already know this. They are already under the thumb of the government. In the US, we value freedom and try to avoid too much interference in how businesses are run, but there have been times of national conflict where the US government has had to take a more proactive approach to fight a war or deal with a hostile regime. This is such a time. Anyone who believes otherwise is simply ignoring the clear evidence. Yes, US elites have invested a lot of time, wealth, and resources in China. As far as I’m concerned, it’s already gone. It’s a sunk cost, and trying to reclaim it now is just going to cost more in the long run. It’s hard to walk away from a relationship where you have so much invested, but sometimes it’s the right thing to do, and sometimes its necessary. Better to admit our mistakes, take our medicine, make the sacrifices, and do the hard work of separating completely. This relationship isn’t working for either of us.
What we’ve already gleaned from Trump’s initiation of ‘trade wars’ is that they are overwhelmingly performative with v moderate outcomes expected. This is most definitely not a strategy to really drive re-shoring and a return of US manufacturing base and jobs, whatever the MAGA base might have thought would happen. Good grief no chance of that as would cost Trump and his Billionaire cronies too much. China will have seen what happened within days with Canada and Mexico and already know Trump no stomach when it comes to it.
Overwhelmingly it’s thus distraction tactic. Although one cannot entirely exclude it’s incoherent chaos depending on what Trump has read on social media that evening.