Despite media reports, I wouldn’t bet on Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth leaving the Pentagon just yet. Donald Trump could, of course, prove me wrong at any given moment, but Hegseth was not a throwaway personnel pick and he would not be easily replaced.

Just as National Security Adviser Mike Waltz weathered the frenzied days of Signalgate, Trump’s decision to publicly back Hegseth amid Signalgate 2.0 and major staff drama is more than a PR strategy. Hegseth and Waltz are bridges from the Old GOP to the Trump GOP. Donald Trump’s foreign policy shattered the neoconservative mould, but the President is not exactly on the same page as, say, Tucker Carlson. Indeed, even as the populist Right’s scepticism of Israel rises amid tensions with Iran, Trump himself posted on Truth Social this week that he and Benjamin Netanyahu “are on the same side of every issue”.

The first Signalgate controversy offered key insights into Hegseth’s value to Trump at the Pentagon. When Vice President JD Vance, a true realist, expressed scepticism about a planned strike on the Houthis, it was Hegseth who stepped in to defend the policy and frame it within Trump’s “America First” doctrine. Whether one agrees with that argument, Hegseth’s skill in getting Vance on board with the policy illustrates why he was selected for the most consequential and difficult role in Trump’s cabinet.

He’s not Mike Pompeo, but he’s also not Rand Paul — and in today’s GOP, few people fit that bill. Trump’s foreign policy is singular, so it can really only be faithfully executed by someone whose primary concern is loyalty. That’s extraordinarily rare in hyper-ideological foreign policy circles. It’s why many people in Trump’s circle remain wary of Waltz, who they believe is more loyal to the foreign policy establishment than the President himself, though Waltz walks the line better than most people with his career history — that’s likely why he still has a job.

Consider the case of Dan Caldwell, one of the three close Hegseth advisers who were terminated last Friday. Caldwell is a friend of Hegseth’s and a genuine critic of the US foreign policy establishment. He is a true supporter of restraint — more aligned with someone like Tucker Carlson than Waltz. (Caldwell’s first media appearance after his firing was on Carlson’s show.) Even though he supported the Houthi strikes, Hegseth still hired a restrainer like Caldwell, who was highly critical of, for instance, the DC blob’s hawkish approach to Iran right now.

To be clear, the firings seem to have more to do with paranoia than ideology. Reports suggest that Hegseth’s intent to upend the Pentagon bureaucracy has his entire staff on edge, which led to last week’s purge. We still don’t have the full story, but it’s clear whatever you think of Hegseth, there are powerful forces inside the vast Pentagon seeking to prevent any significant disruptions.

That much was predictable. It’s actually why Trump wanted Hegseth for the job, and why he’s probably not interested in replacing him now. Trump 2.0 is about weathering the storms of “deep state” attacks with the unflinching support of loyal foot soldiers. Hegseth has clearly made some mistakes, but right now, Trump is in no mood to give any ground.

---