Main Edition
US
FR
→ Who’s the big loser from tactical voting?
Tactical voting is an unavoidable fact of the first-past-the-post system. But how would Britons vote if they had no reason to be tactical? One of the key takeaways from a new YouGov poll is that Brits don’t care all that much for Labour — only that they really don’t like the Tories. If tactical voting weren’t necessary, support for Sir Keir Starmer’s party would fall by eight points to 29%. This suggests that Labour’s looming victory is reliant on an informal coalition to get the Tories out.
Implied voting intention if tactical voting were not necessary
Labour: 29% (-8 compared to actual voting intention)
Conservative: 18% (-2)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Green: 13% (+6)
Lib Dem: 12% (-2)
Other: 9% (+3)https://t.co/VFvDUBqUSN pic.twitter.com/IuoV9H9iUk— YouGov (@YouGov) July 1, 2024
Among the challenger parties, support for the Greens actually rises by six points to 13% without tactical voting, whereas Reform remains at 16% and the Lib Dems fall by two points to 12%. So where does that leave poor old Rishi Sunak? Riding high on 18%, with a fall of two points. At least he’s ahead of Nigel Farage: small victories…
→ Kamala is a veep in the streets
Vice President Kamala Harris made the case for Joe Biden at the Black Entertainment Television awards over the weekend, awkwardly switching between accents during a staged call with actress Taraji P. Henson. “Girl, I’m out here in these streets,” Harris said. And it’s on these streets that Harris has learned that normal Americans, with whom she no doubt has frequent chats, are terrified of Trump and yearning for four more years of the White House incumbent.
So much cringe:
Kamala Harris: “I’m out here in these streets… The majority of us believe in freedom and equality, but these extremists, as they say, they not like us.” pic.twitter.com/AaP5zqgU3F
— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) July 1, 2024
Mocking the veep’s bizarre efforts at relatability has become a national pastime, and her go-to phrases include “Do you think you fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.” One viral compilation shows Harris repeating the same line about “what can be, unburdened by what has been” at dozens of different events for four minutes. Is she competing with the President to see who sounds less lucid?
→ Get ready for the TikTok election
With three days to go, election coverage is inescapable — especially on X and TikTok. A new poll has shown that 60% of X users saw election content, as did 52% of TikTok users. As of 2023, there were over 23 million TikTok users in the UK, meaning that almost 12 million Brits viewed political content through the Chinese-owned app.
Is 2024 the ‘TikTok election’? Looking solely at those who use a given social media platform, election content is most likely to have been encountered by X users, followed by TikTok
X: 60% of users have encountered election content
TikTok: 52%
Facebook: 34%
Instagram: 32%… pic.twitter.com/ebYdXlDXDc— YouGov (@YouGov) July 1, 2024
Only 34% of Facebook users saw political content but the platform still managed to reach 23% of the population with election content. Surprisingly, only 28% of YouTube users saw political content, behind Instagram (32%) and Reddit (29%). This could be the first TikTok election. Who knows why Starmer wants to reduce the voting age…
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeNot sure I believe these numbers.
So YouGov claims that almost half (6%) of the people who want to vote Green (13%) plan to vote Labour.
So, 13% of the electorate would vote Green. More than the Lib Dems. I suppose it’s possible. But depressing that we have that many impractical dreamers.
Then, with Labour forecast to have a huge majority of seats, surely anyone who wants to vote Green can vote Green. Why is there any need to vote tactically ? And why isn’t there more transfer from Greens to Lib Dems ?
The Poll shows a clear majority support Lab/Lib/Green – what one might call a Progressive Centre. It shows the combined Right significantly behind.
And therein lies a reality Unherd and many commentators struggle to grasp. The heart of the country is perhaps not where you think it is.
Not sure that’s the case at all. The signal-to-noise ratio here is pretty high given the Conservatives are at about the bottom of the cycle and Labour at the top – beware of measuring noise.
Point 1: These charts exclude the huge % of people who won’t be voting.
Point 2: This is data taken at a snapshot in time when the public mood is “Tories out”. As the article admits, there is little general enthusiasm or optimism about any of the alternatives. Or belief that things will get better.
Point 3: There are large chunks of Green, Labour and Lib Dem support that are well left of “centrist”.
Point 4: There are large chunks of Labour and Lib Dem support that are not strongly politically aligned.
Point 5: The “Progressive” label is meaningless. There’s nothing progressive about many of the left.
A self comforting analysis I would contend PB, but you are correct that a Poll can be a symptom of it’s moment.
The v significant gap is what the Right should note. It’s not even close to a bloc of Lab/Lib/Green. And one might find some Centrist Tories peel away to this if the Right moves further Right.
I take no comfort in any of this !
But again, we should remember that political support is extraordinarily weak and transient these days. It’s only three years since it was Labour who were in almost terminal crisis.
I forgot something:
Point 6: I think you’re assuming that everyone who votes Lib Dem, Labour or Green is a “progressive centrist”. However, this concedes that there are other types of centrist.
Now centrists may indeed be a majority. But you clearly think this is not a single unified block. Nor should we expect it to be. After all, politics is a bit more interesting than a one dminsional axis these days.
So what % of centrists do you reckon are the “progressive” ones ? And what are the correct sub-types for the other sorts of centrists ?
Depends what we mean by Progressive PB. And that not a simple answer is it. I suspect Progressive would have quite a broad spectrum – just like the Right. How folks would answer would depend on how one described the term..
But I think the Brits are generally centrist, moderate, tolerant, believe in fair play etc, and generally sensible. I also think most don’t want a neo-liberal approach although most also wouldn’t use that term.