The seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker, Skipper, marks a clear escalation in the Trump administration’s effort to force Nicolás Maduro out of power.

The operation off the country’s coast saw Marines rope onto the deck of the tanker and then take control of the vessel. While the vessel was already subject to US sanctions for facilitating oil smuggling to Iran, the latest measures are explicitly intended to pressure the military into removing Maduro from power. The flight on Tuesday of two F-18 fighter jets operating off the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier has the same intent. In a remarkable show of disdain for the South American country’s air defences and the regime, the jets flew right up to the edge of Venezuelan airspace before flying circuits off the coast of the city of Maracaibo. Alongside the vast naval, air, Marine Corps, and special operations forces build-up, these latest actions are designed to send two key messages.

First, that Trump intends to keep increasing pressure until Maduro is gone. Fostering a sense of inevitability, the US hopes to exhaust the top military and security officials who act as guarantors of the President’s power. Trump has already confirmed that the CIA is engaged in covert action in the country. It is likely that the primary focus of that action is to offer bribes and other inducements to officials in return for moving against the leadership. The CIA could then complement any coup d’etat with its own paramilitary forces and, perhaps, the support of the US forces off Venezuela’s coast. By targeting the oil-export industry, the US also sends a signal to the regime that its ability to buy them off may soon come to an end.

The second message is focused on undermining the leader’s personal credibility. By flying F-18s in visible loops off Maracaibo with their transponders openly broadcasting, and by seizing a key pillar of the country’s revenue machine, the US is signalling to Venezuelans and to the broader international audience that Maduro is in no position to challenge its power. Like any repressive regime, his power is ultimately founded at the intersection of public power and political fear. Diluting that power in such a public fashion, the US seeks to reduce the political fear that has thus far prevented a serious challenge to his rule.

What happens next? The US is likely to continue with such operations. Land strikes against drug cartels are also likely in the coming days. But Trump clearly wants to use the minimum amount of force necessary to provoke a domestic move against Maduro. That’s a sensible move. The problem is what happens when once the regime has fallen. His supporters and the criminal enterprises that have been enriched under his rule are unlikely to support any new transitional government. That brings us to the spectre of Iraq and Afghanistan.

The US is determined to avoid a scenario in which a new Venezuelan government is immediately confronted by a well-armed, deeply entrenched insurgency operating in the country’s vast jungle terrain. This would risk an escalating humanitarian crisis, undercutting Trump’s central foreign policy narrative that he is the president who avoids “stupid wars” and the spread of chaos abroad.

Put another way, getting Maduro out of power might be the easy part. The hard part comes the day after tomorrow.

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Tom Rogan is a national security writer at the Washington Examiner

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