October 31, 2024 - 7:00am

In his response to Wednesday’s Budget, we saw a flash of what Rishi Sunak could have been. His final appearance as Tory leader was energetic and animated. He cut into Labour’s tax plans incisively and buoyed the spirits of the Opposition MPs behind him. It was a side we rarely saw during his time in Downing Street, but it would have been welcome.

More than that, Sunak was once again proven correct. He had spent the summer warning that Labour would bring in unheralded tax rises, testing its pledges around “working people to the limit”. He was vindicated. It wasn’t the first time, either. In another contest two years ago, he spent a summer warning the world about his opponent’s plans, only to be roundly beaten before being proven right in the autumn. Unlike with Liz Truss, however, this time he won’t be handed a second chance.

Instead, it is now time for Sunak to ponder his legacy. For most prime ministers, it seems, being out of office reflects well on them. Theresa May has enjoyed a particular rehabilitation, perhaps in light of those who came after. For Rishi, you can see it shaping up already — more focus on the praise he received for his Covid-19 response as Chancellor, an acknowledgement that the Tory Party he took over was already sunk, added to those correct positions on the economy, and in hindsight he perhaps doesn’t look that bad.

Perhaps Sunak’s real tragedy was the speed of his ascendancy. It is really quite remarkable that he is a washed-up has-been of Westminster already. An ex-prime minister at just 44 years old, less than a decade after becoming an MP, is an amazing speed-run of political life. It is perhaps also a sign that the chaos of the Conservative Party wasted his talents.

Sunak had his strengths but was let down both by himself and by those around him. He took over a party that had worn through its talents and its enthusiasm for governing. His own limitations didn’t help. He had little instinct for what he wanted to do with power, making his government listless. He was also quite bad at politics, from making unforced errors such as the D-Day debacle to failing to find a proper strategic vision for his premiership.

With a little more time, he might have avoided this. He was party leader in a difficult time, but also before he was ready. He’d barely experienced general elections from the inside, nor had time in junior ministries to hone his political viewpoints. His radical rise, first to chancellor, then PM, came at the expense of learning the slower lessons of Westminster. In an alternative world, Sunak is perhaps an entrant in the current leadership contest, pitching to rebuild the party after someone else broke it.

Unfortunately for politicians, they don’t get to choose the hand dealt to them. The rapid rise and deep fall is probably not what Sunak would have planned for himself, but it’s what fortune thrust upon him. He might be commended for taking on the leadership in dire straits, but the records will always show the disastrous election he presided over. In the brutality of Westminster, being right rarely makes up for losing.

Sunak has used his time as leader of the Opposition as a useful valedictory. He has probably enjoyed it more than the difficulties of governing and has equipped himself well. It may not be enough to save his reputation, but it has perhaps been a glimpse of what he could have achieved in different circumstances. Now, he will likely slip into quiet on the backbenches and then out of Westminster altogether, his experience serving as a warning to the next Westminster wunderkind that too much too soon can be a disastrous thing.


John Oxley is a corporate strategist and political commentator. His Substack is Joxley Writes.

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