March 5, 2025 - 7:00pm
Kyiv is reeling from the impact of US military aid and intelligence being paused. A senior Western official told the Financial Times that, if information sharing is not restored soon, “it will become really difficult for the Ukrainians because it takes away their battlefield advantage.” Indeed, Kyiv is reportedly losing live updates on enemy movements, as well as early warnings about Russian missiles and drone raids on Ukrainian infrastructure.
It is especially unfortunate for Ukraine, given that, until now, it had been faring better in its battles against the enemy than around the negotiating table. On Saturday, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Kyiv has been inflicting “unsustainable losses” on Russian forces and has “significantly slowed Russian advances along the front”, confining Moscow to “marginal gains”. Following last week’s retaking of the settlement of Kotlyne, Ukrainian forces have claimed back the eastern city of Toretsk and are seizing territory near Uspenivka in Donetsk Oblast.
This push constitutes a turnaround from the steady progress Moscow enjoyed last year. So why has Russia lost momentum? Moscow’s offensive has slowed over the past three months due to poor weather conditions, the impact of equipment losses in the autumn, and Ukrainian forces adapting successfully to Russian tactics. In addition, the prospect of US-Russia bilateral negotiations to end the war, hailed by Moscow, ironically seem to have set them back on the battlefield. The Ukrainian military claimed that Russia’s forces lost the motivation to fight after peace talks began, presumably figuring it was senseless to reach the end of their lives for the sake of a war reaching the end of its own.
Ukraine’s feats are not entirely the result of Russia’s defeats, however. In December, General Mykhailo Drapatyi, appointed the country’s Ground Forces chief a month prior, announced reforms focused on training and technology. While it once seemed a certainty, Moscow has not managed to take the Donetsk city of Pokrovsk. Instead, Russian troops have become exhausted after an offensive from the south and attempts to bypass from the west both failed. Moscow reportedly lost 7,000 men near the city in January alone, with Kyiv repelling multiple attacks through the effective use of drone units. Additionally, while glide bombers last year constituted such a clear advantage to Moscow that even Ukrainian bloggers labelled them a “miracle weapon”, recent reports indicate that it can now take 16 to strike one target thanks to the Ukrainians jamming signals.
Manpower is another area where Kyiv is successfully implementing reform. As US Vice President JD Vance informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday, Kyiv has been suffering from personnel problems. Following public controversy about lowering the conscription age and well-documented difficulties with luring young men to the front, over 10,000 Ukrainians aged 18-24 have applied for “special contracts” offering generous financial benefits and the opportunity to go abroad after their service. Besides helping to fill the ranks of Ukraine’s army, it may go some way to dispelling the negative publicity generated by stories of young men preferring to attack Ukrainian recruiting officers than the enemy.
Until the past few days, Zelensky enjoyed some rare reasons for optimism regarding his country’s battlefield performance. However, CSIS analysis indicates that Ukraine can only stabilise the frontline if in receipt of both American and European aid. Should the US aid pause prove more permanent, Ukrainian forces will gradually lose more and more territory until their lines break.
Zelensky has attempted to mend fences with the White House, calling Friday’s clash “regrettable” and sending a letter signalling his willingness to sign a minerals deal. As US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz suggests that military aid and intelligence could be restarted if Ukraine “moves towards negotiations”, Zelensky can reflect that his battlefield position is best improved not by reforming his army but by getting through to the White House.
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SubscribeSo…being friends with the governing powers of the USA is beneficial! Whoever would have thought otherwise? Well apparently Zelensky but he’s been put straight on that sharpish.
However Zelensky’s actions will count more than his words. He was due to sign a deal last Friday but decided to try to bounce Trump into a different position. He may well try again.
We’ve seen this movie before. Russia’s winter offensives culminate in the early-mid spring, and the Ukrainians counter punch over the spring summer at tremendous losses to themselves. The mere fact there are identifiable cycles of death and destruction does not alter the fact this war is in a stalemate.
Battalion-level counterattacks in and around Toretsk are not going to end this war. Europe is out of materiel to give and pumps billions into Russia’s war machine each month. America had an election, and the message was it’s time for peace.
To the extent battlefield momentum can eke out a concession for Russia at the negotiating table, great. However, if the no-end-in-sighters want to use this as selective evidence to continue throwing blood and treasure into the black hole of eastern Ukraine, count me out.
Atta girl Bethany, don’t let reality stand in your way! I’m sure wishing real hard will make it possible to squeeze some more $$$ out of this terrible war for all of you grifters.
Out of curiosity, I checked the sources and, surprise surprise, we get a lovely assortment of pro-war think tanks projecting their wishful thinking, ukrainian propaganda distilled through the british press and.. more ukrainian propaganda… but directly from the dead horses mouth, if you’ll pardon the mixed metaphor.
With work like this we can truly see how hard-earned that specialization in Russia and Eastern Europe is…
That is the whole point of suspending intelligence sharing. Trump has sensibly concluded that the war must end.