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April 10, 2023 - 7:00am
The tanks are arriving. The recruits are undergoing training. New units are being formed. Preparations for Ukraine’s spring offensive are afoot, with US officials expecting it to begin in the coming weeks. Ukrainian hopes to dislodge Russian forces from the country are reportedly centred on the Zaporizhzhia frontline, which would allow Ukraine to push into the partially-occupied oblast to seize the transport hub of Melitopol and sever the land bridge which permits Russia to supply forces from Crimea.
The counter-offensive may well prove decisive in determining the fate of the war, not least because significant territorial gains could lead to negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The country’s leadership having hitherto ruled out peace talks until Russian forces have withdrawn entirely from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, on 5th April, Ukrainian presidential advisor Andriy Sybiha said that if its forces achieve “strategic goals on the battlefield” and reach Crimea’s borders, the leadership would be open to negotiations over the future of the peninsula.
Alternatively, should Ukraine’s army falter, the Spring Offensive could mark the moment at which Western support to Ukraine begins to decline, with former US Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer warning that “if this becomes a grinding war with no end in sight, it becomes a lot harder to maintain Western support”.
Second only to the Russians, Ukraine’s greatest enemy is Western fatigue. Back in September, Russian-born banker Lubov Chernukhin warned of people viewing Ukraine as “Afghanistan 2.0 – a war that drones interminably on, prompting fatigue”. Meanwhile, in February, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrij Melnyk noted that a key challenge for Ukraine is combatting Western weariness, with allies feeling they could “put their feet up” after supplying tanks.
This is especially apparent in America. Some in the Republican Party, notably in the Trumpist wing, have been voicing doubts about support to Ukraine, none more so than the man himself. Trump has complained of the US giving Ukraine too much aid and said he could have prevented the conflict by letting Putin “take over something”. In February, a group of pro-Trump Republicans led by Congressman Matt Gaetz introduced the ‘Ukraine Fatigue Resolution’, urging an end to US military and financial aid to Ukraine and warning of the costs of a protracted conflict.
Meanwhile, Trump’s potential rival for the Republican presidential nomination, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has claimed it is not in America’s interest to become “further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia”. With US public support for aid to Ukraine declining, assistance to the embattled nation looks set to be a hot topic in the run-up to 2024’s presidential election.
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SubscribeOne should not put too much stock in potential Presidential candidate campaign statements. Things always look different once in the White House, especially as POTUS often able to exert more influence on foreign than domestic affairs.
What the US increasingly knows is that Cold War 2 is not just a contest in the South China Sea. Much as for Cold War 1 it is contested over all Continents. How the US/Western Allies behave towards Ukraine has meaning and message to many pondering whether to lean towards the CCP or back towards the West. This has to form part of the calculus.
There seems no doubt though that Europe, whilst more unified than many would have predicted, will have to step forward and provide a greater proportion of guarantees for the eventual peace in Ukraine. This will beg big questions, especially of the Germans and French. The Brits too. The Poles and Scandinavians we know will step forward.
Agreed. Presidential ratings will be hurt by any activity that condemns Ukraine to defeat. There may be a reduction in enthusiasm which could cause problems, particularly if that encourages the Russians.
The best hope is that the forthcoming Ukrainian offensive pushes the Russians back to their original borders and forces Putin to negotiate. At some point the Russians will realise they can’t conquer the entirety of the Ukraine and will have to talk.
What Ukraine actually needs to do is sever the land bridge to Crimea (the southern land corridor). Resupply of Crimea will then become far more difficult. Not necessary to recover territory in the East to do this. They only need to cut the long southern flank at one point and it’s over. At that point the Russians may have to seriously negotiate.
What Ukraine actually needs to do is sever the land bridge to Crimea (the southern land corridor). Resupply of Crimea will then become far more difficult. Not necessary to recover territory in the East to do this. They only need to cut the long southern flank at one point and it’s over. At that point the Russians may have to seriously negotiate.
The Russians will have little interest in guarantees from Europe, once Merkel and the Germans admitted they have been lying for years and have no real intension of implementing any negotiated settlement, the question will be solved on the battle field with the destruction of the Ukrainian army
Rather like it was solved on 24 Feb 2022.
Ingenious solutions lead to quite fascinating outcomes!
Rather like it was solved on 24 Feb 2022.
Ingenious solutions lead to quite fascinating outcomes!
Agreed. Presidential ratings will be hurt by any activity that condemns Ukraine to defeat. There may be a reduction in enthusiasm which could cause problems, particularly if that encourages the Russians.
The best hope is that the forthcoming Ukrainian offensive pushes the Russians back to their original borders and forces Putin to negotiate. At some point the Russians will realise they can’t conquer the entirety of the Ukraine and will have to talk.
The Russians will have little interest in guarantees from Europe, once Merkel and the Germans admitted they have been lying for years and have no real intension of implementing any negotiated settlement, the question will be solved on the battle field with the destruction of the Ukrainian army
One should not put too much stock in potential Presidential candidate campaign statements. Things always look different once in the White House, especially as POTUS often able to exert more influence on foreign than domestic affairs.
What the US increasingly knows is that Cold War 2 is not just a contest in the South China Sea. Much as for Cold War 1 it is contested over all Continents. How the US/Western Allies behave towards Ukraine has meaning and message to many pondering whether to lean towards the CCP or back towards the West. This has to form part of the calculus.
There seems no doubt though that Europe, whilst more unified than many would have predicted, will have to step forward and provide a greater proportion of guarantees for the eventual peace in Ukraine. This will beg big questions, especially of the Germans and French. The Brits too. The Poles and Scandinavians we know will step forward.
Americans have learned this, but our ruling class remains quite enamored with them. Any why not? Using tax money to buy bombs and missiles made by friends you play golf with so you can blow up stuff halfway around the world is fun and makes you look strong.
Suspect Russia has also learned lessons about the futility of trying to control borderlands where people universally hate them.
Or rather, maybe they haven’t…
Suspect Russia has also learned lessons about the futility of trying to control borderlands where people universally hate them.
Or rather, maybe they haven’t…
Americans have learned this, but our ruling class remains quite enamored with them. Any why not? Using tax money to buy bombs and missiles made by friends you play golf with so you can blow up stuff halfway around the world is fun and makes you look strong.
Logically China and other enemies of the West would want to prolong this conflict as long as possible. Exhausting the West’s resources and reaching the point where the cost and compassion fatigue for what seems like an interminable war has turned public opinion against further support, the USA, Britain and Ukraine’s other supporters would once again be forced in to a shameful cut and run just like they were with Iraq and Afghanistan.
China and our other geopolitical enimies would assume – probably quite rightly – that after yet another humiliatng retreat, there would be no appetite to commit resources to defend Taiwan or any other target our enemies have in their sights
I imagine, then, that China and others will be assisting Russia with sufficient finance and armaments to ensure that Russia is not defeated. With the US presidential elections taking place next year, and a sceptical Republican president a strong probability, there is additional incentive to keep Russia in the fight for the next 18 months.
With new military and economic alligiances centred on China created and he West: humilated, exhausted, conflict wear and engaged in a cultural nervous breakdown, it is not hard to imagine that the the long touted fundamental shift in the geopoliical balance of power could finally happen.
Russia has to win its first victory before any of that can happen.
Backing incompetents is not China’s style.
Whereas stealing Russia’s erstwhile clients in Central Asia is. Nice to see that their new railway also totally bypasses Russia.
Maybe they know something about Russia we don’t?
Russia has to win its first victory before any of that can happen.
Backing incompetents is not China’s style.
Whereas stealing Russia’s erstwhile clients in Central Asia is. Nice to see that their new railway also totally bypasses Russia.
Maybe they know something about Russia we don’t?
Logically China and other enemies of the West would want to prolong this conflict as long as possible. Exhausting the West’s resources and reaching the point where the cost and compassion fatigue for what seems like an interminable war has turned public opinion against further support, the USA, Britain and Ukraine’s other supporters would once again be forced in to a shameful cut and run just like they were with Iraq and Afghanistan.
China and our other geopolitical enimies would assume – probably quite rightly – that after yet another humiliatng retreat, there would be no appetite to commit resources to defend Taiwan or any other target our enemies have in their sights
I imagine, then, that China and others will be assisting Russia with sufficient finance and armaments to ensure that Russia is not defeated. With the US presidential elections taking place next year, and a sceptical Republican president a strong probability, there is additional incentive to keep Russia in the fight for the next 18 months.
With new military and economic alligiances centred on China created and he West: humilated, exhausted, conflict wear and engaged in a cultural nervous breakdown, it is not hard to imagine that the the long touted fundamental shift in the geopoliical balance of power could finally happen.
The War will be over by summer.
The War will be over by summer.
The far more consequential fact right now is that Putin is walking an impossible tightrope.
He’s creating a quite psychotic cocktail inside Russia, by forcing people like Medvedev, and TV presenters like Solovyov, to make insane statements about “totally destroying Ukraine.”
It’s designed to convince both Russians and westerners that he is the only sane ruler for Russia.
But the far more likely outcome is that this will only embolden the real psychotics in Russia to overthrow a weak and cowardly Tsar.
We’ll soon see a civil war between psychos like Prigozhin, against the (much weakened) Russian Army and oligarchs.
Looks like 1917 all over again. Just the inevitable outcome of Muscovy’s 800-year old culture.
The sure sign that someone is wrong is when they can’t even think of a reply.
The sure sign that someone is wrong is when they can’t even think of a reply.
The far more consequential fact right now is that Putin is walking an impossible tightrope.
He’s creating a quite psychotic cocktail inside Russia, by forcing people like Medvedev, and TV presenters like Solovyov, to make insane statements about “totally destroying Ukraine.”
It’s designed to convince both Russians and westerners that he is the only sane ruler for Russia.
But the far more likely outcome is that this will only embolden the real psychotics in Russia to overthrow a weak and cowardly Tsar.
We’ll soon see a civil war between psychos like Prigozhin, against the (much weakened) Russian Army and oligarchs.
Looks like 1917 all over again. Just the inevitable outcome of Muscovy’s 800-year old culture.