March 5, 2025 - 1:00pm
This week, Reform UK has been caught in something of a tailspin. The breakdown of relations between the US and Ukraine has thrown foreign policy back to the top of the agenda, and the insurgent Right-wing party has struggled to find an answer.
Nigel Farage appeared first to side with the White House over the Trump-Zelensky clash on Friday. But after JD Vance appeared to belittle Britain, the Reform leader criticised the US Vice President’s comments as “wrong” (four times). Elsewhere, the rest of the party has struggled to find what the line is, never mind sticking to it, which points to some of Reform’s broader strategic problems.
Reform has made phenomenal progress in UK politics. It is routinely polling in the mid-twenties, and the party’s momentum is growing by the week. Questions remain, however, about where its ceiling is — and issues such as Ukraine play into this. These test the boundary between what might be called the Reform base — the party’s most committed voters — and those it wants to win over.
So far, Reform has attracted the voters most sceptical of Ukraine and Western support, which tracks with Farage’s own record. He has been a longtime critic of EU and Nato expansion, and has been accused of echoing the Russian argument that such expansion “provoked” the conflict.
The same is true of support for Trump. Reform has been the party most supportive of the US President and has gained the voters who share that view. However, that creates a problem if the party wants to attract more moderate voters. Even on the Right, Tory voters are largely ill-disposed towards Trump, and support for Ukraine is as close to a cross-political consensus as this country has. Standing against that tide might be important within Reform, but it does nothing to expand support.
It highlights a recurring issue which has plagued Farage’s party. Beyond Brexit and immigration, Reform has failed to find a more popular platform. Ironically for a populist party, it has struggled to always grasp popular sentiment. In its early days, for example, Reform became the main political voice of lockdown scepticism and flirted with vaccine scepticism, but these were two positions rejected by the overwhelming majority of Brits. Add to that the party’s Thatcherite tendencies, and such positions will hinder its ability to consolidate the current polling position.
The mixed messages this week also point to a bigger internal problem. Despite promises to professionalise, the party remains chaotic. It is unclear who is deciding which lines to take and whether anyone is sticking to them. Each MP seems to be riffing their own position rather than following message discipline. That simply isn’t sustainable for a serious political party.
In politics, you have to know when you walk with the majority and when you differentiate yourself. So far, Reform has had success when it has found core issues with broad appeal, such as immigration. Staking out a minority position on other issues may fire up the base, but it is unlikely to help it broaden support. On an issue like Ukraine, where the public has proved committed and consistent, it seems foolish to pitch yourself against them. In this case, it’s indicative of the bigger challenges that lie between Reform and power.
John Oxley is a corporate strategist and political commentator. His Substack is Joxley Writes.
Mr_John_Oxley
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SubscribeSo foreign policy experts like John Mearsheimer, William Burns, and George Kennan et al who warned repeatedly (for decades) that NATO expanding into Ukraine was a bright red line for Russia are… Russian?
Who knew?
Not personally russian, just pro-russian views. russia sympathisers of old were from the hard left (many still are), the comrades etc. The new western pro russia are from the right, the preservers of conservative values. Very few of either the new or old western sympathisers ever lived there or had any understanding of what it really is.
Yes, it’s a case of ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ (or more like not my enemy). I’ve lived in both Ukraine and Russia, and it’s difficult for an average Westerner to grasp the depth of cynicism of the Soviet-style mentality (practised by Putin and the Russian state) – in which truth is not important, only power. This has nothing much in common with traditional Western conservatism, though the Russian state tactically plays up an anti-progressive stance. Ukraine has been trying to shed this Soviet mentality. But I don’t think Farage has ever been supportive of Putin, more like ‘it doesn’t concern us too much and we should leave well alone’. I understand that position, though personally I’m more pro-Ukraine.
I lost a lot of respect for Mearsheimer after listening to an UnHerd interview in which he shared his views on Israel-Palestine.
Suddenly realism went out the window, and he saw everything through a moral lens.
Lots of people take a moral stance on that conflict, but it felt wrong coming from him.
I heard Mearshiemer on this, on the same day I read Ehud Olmert’s revelations of having offered a return to 1967 borders to Mahmoud Abbas (Abbas waved it away) and it wasn’t the easiest 24 hours. Still chewing over it.
Firstly, immigration is not just a policy among others. For many – perhaps a majority of the country – it is the issue. People understand that if you allow the make up of the population to change, you can never revert it. And time is extremely short to deal with this problem before all is lost.
Secondly, they are also against Net Zero which will be a majority position by the next GE. They are also very tough on crime (and is flirting with bring back capital punishment).
Thirdly, Ukraine will be a non-issue in a few weeks let alone in 4 years. As soon as a ceasefire is called, it will drop from the news agenda faster than a group German manufacturers signing up for Russian gas deliveries. The dreams of a Euro-army will also come to naught but even talk of British troops being under EU command makes the old Brexiteer’s war-wounds ache.
And finally, consistency or “authenticity” is the most valuable characteristic in a politician. Farage has repeatedly shown he doesn’t bend on his opinions despite media pressure. I fancy it will be the same with his view on Ukraine – a very humane, far-sighted and realistic view in my opinion – will further demonstrate his consistency.
What makes you think Putin wants a ceasefire? Have you any evidence of that? He’s got lots of new N Korean cannon fodder at his disposal now and Trump has halted arms shipments.
Because I trust Uncle Donald and the Art of the Deal.
Uncle Donald has a track record for deals. It’s his withdrawal from Afghanistan deal that blew up in Biden’s face.
Doesn’t look hopeful for the poor wretched Ukranians.
Will it all fade from view? Ask yourself this: how long did it take the British public to forget about Chamberlain and “peace in our time”? In short: it all boils down to: will Putin keep his word?
only today we see that Labour plan to have lower custodial sentences for people who are’nt White, and they claim we don’t have a 2 Tier Racist legal system
Yes I just saw that – pre-sentencing reports (which increase the likelihood of not receiving a custodial sentence) will in the future be considered necessary for people “from an ethnic minority, cultural minority, and/or faith minority community”.
One rule for them….
Truly shocking.
totally agree with you, Ukraine has never been about ukraine, it’s a political totem, people ally to or don’t. People are pro Ukraine , because they think that’s an anti Trump position
Immigration is the only issue in reality, because everything else is downstream from it.
Will the UK remain a Western Cultural country or not, if we don’t, then everything from the Environmental , Female , Gay rights, Free speech, Crime , the rights of the individual are at stake
also the things the left esp pontificate about won’t matter in 20 years time, because we will be an Islamic culture, we will a wetter Saudi Arabia, and the Left will be an irrelevancy
Fully agree, within the next 6 months at the latest Ukraine will be a non-issue. As for Reform policies. They have lots of them and these policies such as net zero and stopping immigration have struck a chord with the voters. The first test will be the Welsh Elections in May 26 where Reform is predicted to be the largest party and could possibly form the next Welsh government. Bring it on!!
Well, knowing the history to the WHOLE sorry Ukrainian saga since 1994 I believe Trump and JD are totally correct. Our (western deep state) clear long term aim was to weaken and pressurise Russia by moving NATO up to its borders.
This policy has just failed very publicly.
Many people who are able to look past the Russia phobia and the MSM nonsense can see this.
Would the US be okay with 14 FSB bases along the Rio Grande? A coup in Mexico to install your hand picked government … 40+ bioweapons (defensive according to vicky Nuland lol) labs funded by the Kremlin?? … to top it off Blinken told Lavrov in Jan 22 that Aegis missiles we’re going to be put into Ukraine thereby degrading their MAD deterrent.
So, as this all becomes common knowledge over the coming months I really don’t think Reform will suffer at all from not joining the moronic clapping seals in parliament yesterday.
We see to have entered a new era of Real Politic … the leftist liberal globalists don’t seem to have realised lol … let’s hope it continues.
In 4 years time it probably won’t matter. Ukraine won’t be a winning issue for the blob by then. If it’s calmed down by then it will be a minor issue. If there’s a war on the election will be cancelled anyway. If there’s already been a war it’ll have been a bloodbath and won’t be popular. If rearmament has led to either tax hikes or big welfare cuts they’ll be a large constituency of POd people. Likewise if conscription introduced. Labour will probably have caused a economic crash by then anyway
Nice summary of the possible outcomes. I like it.
Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine…
Taiwan is lost – would you die for America First ? I suppose it could make great TV tho’
the reality is Ukraine is a minor issue with the vast majority of people.
They have their performative virtue signalling, most of them could’nt point to it on a map
Ukraine will neither lose or win an election, we simply don’t care
The two opinion polls released since Friday show a small 2-3% bounce for Labour but also show Reform unchanged on 24% and 25% respectively. Obviously things could change but I rather think Labour’s “war bounce” will wear off pretty quickly. I see dinghy crossings reached an all time high today for instance.
With Vance’s emotional incontinence working overtime, Reform might as well pack up now.
A deep loathing of America and Americans is growing.
And the USA quite simply doesn’t care what others think about it.
And Reform isn’t dependent on Vance’s support.
Who would be daft enough to seek support from Vance ?
But after all the Mar a Lago performance ‘link with America’ schtick from Farage he IS dependent upon UK public warmth towards Yanks. Going….going… GONE !
Well duh. You would need to be very insular not to have gathered that USA doesn’t care what others think about it. They have been shouting it these last 400 years.
I somehow doubt that Reform’s support is founded on Farage being friends with Trump. It seems more founded on not being any of the other Parties, whose governing of the UK has delivered the current dire situation it is in…and they haven’t finished yet. Plenty more ruin to come.
You misunderstand.
Farage’s problem is that he once portrayed himself as a friend of Trump
Hang on, isn’t Starmer a friend of Trump now? Everybody’s Trump’s friend it seems. How craven they all are.
Look, I’ve been one of the most steadfast defenders of Ukraine here over the past three years. But I question whether John Rapley’s statement here is as true and enduring as he assumes:
“On an issue like Ukraine, where the public has proved committed and consistent, it seems foolish to pitch yourself against them.”
I can’t believe I’m alone in shifting to a more pragmatic view on Ukraine (i.e. try to achieve some sort of stable, lasting settlement). Or not viewing it as one of our top priorities right now.
“Despite promises to professionalise, the party remains chaotic”
Compared to who?
On the subject of Ukraine, people who have been fed an information diet derived mostly from the Uk media, or talking heads, or even the legacy US media, have really not heard the case for not unquestioningly giving whole-hearted support for the Gallant Ukrainians against Evil Putin. To do otherwise is to be labelled a Putin stooge etc. With people like Trump and Vance now making different arguments more visible, perhaps opinion in the UK will change.
I imagine it’ll change damn fast when they realise how much their taxes would have to rise to pay for it.
Reform should use their screen time to discuss about Clacton and Rotherham, rather than babble about Kiev and Mariupol.
I disagree with the opinion that Ukraine is a major concern of British people. It seems to cause great concern and hand- wringing in the BBC and other media who are desperately upset at the harsh truths being directed at Europe from the White House.
I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry at the term ‘Coalition of the Willing’.
Who exactly are the willing? Farage is right, again.
I believe the author has fallen into a regular trap with UK politics.
People are not flocking to Reform because they love Reform. They are going to Reform because they strongly dislike the alternatives.
Starmer (20% of electorate) didnt win because people wanted him. He won because people didnt want the Tories (15% of the electorate).
And Reform is doing well because folk dont want Labour or Tories.
Support for Ukraine was a fine philosophy . But whether the Brits love Ukraine enough to put our troops in danger (in reality such tiny force would be easily wiped out) – or to see their tax increased materially- hasnt been tested. Everyone is virtuous until they have to pay for it.
I dont believe the view that Russia will go on attacking other countries.They haven’t done very well with this one after three years. I think they will settle for the Donbas.