Donald Trump has gored a lot of the GOP’s sacred cows. Of these Republican shibboleths, not raising taxes — especially not for the rich — is one of the most important. Last week, the President told Time magazine: “I actually love the concept [of a millionaire tax], but I don’t want it to be used against me politically, because I’ve seen people lose elections for less.” On Monday, The Hill noted that Trump has consequently received heat on his Right flank from traditional conservatives and business groups, despite earlier distancing himself from the move. So, is a tax hike on the cards?

Realistically, Trump is unlikely to actually raise taxes on the rich, despite his recent threats to the contrary. It’s a policy that matters too much to too many Republicans. The most interesting outcome of this developing battle, though, is a shift of the conservative Overton window amid a worsening financial crisis in the US.

The Hill report quoted Grover Norquist of advocacy group Americans for Tax Reform, who proclaimed the idea “dead”. Norquist spent decades successfully coercing GOP candidates from coast to coast into signing “The Pledge”, which demanded that Republicans seeking elected office promise not to vote for tax increases.

This was long celebrated in the conservative movement, which was historically seen as a stool with three legs: fiscal conservatism, social conservatism, and neoconservatism. Known as “fusionism”, this coalition relied on Norquist’s pledge to keep fiscal conservatives happy by ensuring the GOP would draw a bright red line on raising revenues which, if not kept in check, would allow for the growth of the administrative state.

It’s no small matter for Trump to be musing openly about a tax hike. More, mooting one on the rich also introduces a previously verboten element of class warfare into the policy. However, he immediately shattered that norm in 2016 — so why not do it again?

Republicans now face a post-Biden reality. Trump’s loss in 2020 led to an administration which spent an astounding amount of money. As David Winston wrote earlier this year in Roll Call: “The Congressional Budget Office projections (based on a continuation of current Biden spending) show that in 2025, spending will be over $7 trillion, and by 2028, it will be over $8 trillion.” Winston writes that in 2018, when the Republicans last held the White House and Congress, the federal budget stood at $4.1 trillion. If nothing changes, federal spending will have doubled in a decade.

Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency was supposed to put a massive dent in that. By Musk’s own estimate, DOGE now expects a $150 billion spending reduction, rather than $2 trillion. Republicans promised a tax cut bill in the context of major spending cuts spurred by DOGE. Trump’s tariffs will certainly raise revenue, but the specifics of that policy’s future remain murky.

Even before Trump’s re-election, Biden spending levels were nudging Republicans away from the “No New Taxes” orthodoxy. Political adviser Oren Cass documented this last June in the Financial Times, noting that figures such as Chip Roy, policy chair of the House Freedom Caucus, and Jodey Arrington, chair of the House Budget Committee, have been critical of anti-tax “purity pledges”. The trend is more significant than people realise.

Trump is more comfortable with class warfare than your average fiscal conservative, so it’s no surprise that he floated a willingness to levy the millionaire tax. What would be a surprise, however, is if Republicans seriously entertained the idea in the midst of a surge of energy from technolibertarian voices in MAGA circles, which will just add to the chorus of old-school Republican tax pledgers who will wage holy war against any direct hike. The constituency for this kind of policy from a Republican administration is just not powerful enough — yet, at least.

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