February 20, 2025 - 7:00am
For those who reside in self-righteous echo chambers, this week was a disaster. Donald Trump turned fully against Ukraine, accusing it of prolonging the war with Russia before suggesting that Kyiv should hold elections and calling Zelensky a dictator. The US President clearly characterises the decision to fight Russia as a mistake.
The single most important decision the Europeans need to make right now is not about Ukraine, but about their own readiness to plug the gap the US will leave as it reduces its security commitment to Europe. The US wonāt go from everything to nothing, but it will leave Europe badly exposed to a potential future threat from Russia.
This is a time for the Europeans to really focus ā something they are not good at. The first decisions to be taken by EU and Nato leaders should be a credible multi-annual strategy to raise defence capabilities to a level that provides sufficient deterrence and the first step needs to be implemented now. This could be a defence spending target, measured in percentage points of GDP, or it could be something more ambitious, like a target measured in terms of defence capabilities. And Europe should try to produce the weapons within its own borders, rather than reinforcing its dependency on the US. Rheinmetall, for example, is already expanding its manufacturing capacity for ammunition. There will be a lot of idle industrial capacity in Germany as de-industrialisation proceeds.
Under-fire German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was right to say it is too early to talk about peacekeeping in Ukraine. It was a stroke of diplomatic stupidity by Emmanuel Macron to call an ill-prepared summit that ended up with a German chancellor storming out and telling the media about his irritation. This is a good moment for Mark Rutte, Nato Secretary-General, to show the leadership that national leaders are failing to.
The EU has to start reconnecting with reality. It was unforgivable for Ursula von der Leyen to classify Ukraine as the political priority for the EU. It absolutely is not. The EU evidently has no control over what is going to happen there. It is not even at the table. The European Commission should focus on its narrow mandate, the European economy, something over which it actually has some influence, and which is in need of urgent attention.
The Europeans are still shell-shocked by what is happening around them, which is due to the echo chamber effect mentioned above. Earlier this week on the BBC’s Newsnight, there was repetition of the most unchallenged lie of the entire war ā that if Ukraine would only be allowed to fight a little while longer, Russia would collapse. Reputable newspapers have peddled the lie that Russiaās war economy would create hyper-inflation. It would eventually. But to turn Keynes on his head: Russia can stay liquid for longer than rational analysis would assume, especially when its stated enemies are still paying for its oil.
There are still calls for the West to send more money to Ukraine. Whether or not Ukraine could have won the war had different decisions been taken is a legitimate matter which will be discussed by historians. I doubted the claims of glorious victory early on, especially after the EUās timid sanctions against Russia. Countries that prioritise their own comfort do not win wars.
Nothing that happened this week should have come as a surprise. Trump may not have been very effective during his first term, but he told us everything we needed to know. EU leaders chose to ignore him. Five years earlier, they chose not to use the eurozoneās sovereign debt crisis as an occasion to give the area a fiscal, banking, and capital markets union that it now so badly needs to catch up on investment. Weakness, after all, is a choice.
This is an edited version of an article which originally appeared in theĀ EurointelligenceĀ newsletter.
Von der Leyen must be given some credit for strategic thinking in prioritising Ukraine, if that eventually means membership of the Union.
To join as a member, Ukraine must remain as a sovereign state. If, as reported, the Kremlin has no objections to EU membership for Ukraine, they have tacitly agreed that the existence of the country as a sovereign state is no longer offensive to Russia.
The EU is therefore made central to the entire matter, peace or war.
Or, and I’m sure this might blow some people’s minds, the EU could have just not gotten involved with Ukraine and avoided the problem entirely.
But I guess the opportunity to virtue signal and preen for 3 years is worth the destruction of Europe’s economy.
Ukraine is a liability with no upsides and this talk of joining the EU is both nonsensical from a practical standpoint (it would distort the market and basically commit us to funding it’s reconstruction) and entirely unfair and illegitimate with regards to accession criteria. Just because the Russians are okay with it, doesn’t make it a good idea.
Oh and no, mutti ursula should never be given credit, the woman is moron who has built her career on failing upwards.
Nothing wrong with that analysis.
This week’s editions of the BBC’s cut-price chat show otherwise known as Newsnight that cover Trump and Ukraine are the perfect example of what Vance was talking about.
Yet there is no recognition of it, not the slightest glimmer, among the guests on the BBC’s sofa. As if they were the first class passengers on the Titanic waiting in the elegant saloon for someone to call them to the lifeboats.
Excellent image coming out of your post. I would add, maybe, that they are not like āfirst class passengersā but more like āEuropean passengersā. The BBC and most intellectuals think that we are still in Europe and the EU can do no wrong. In words, Europe has backed Ukraine to the hilt and there is no further discussion. Europe hates Trump – no discussion.
The beauty of the EU clique is that they donāt actually have to do anything but talk and make the right faces for the camera. Being in the EU makes people feel warm and secure and above all of the cr*p and ugliness – like first class passengers on the Titanic.
The only difference is that the U.S. has paid for the first class stateroom.
That’s definitely not helping public opinion in the United States and US support for continuing to fund Ukraine. Regardless of opinions about Trump, he has radically exposed the corruption to an extent we are feeling and seeing every day, thank you DOGE, a gut punch to see US taxpayers not only shoveled 350 billion to this war but Zelensky says he doesn’t know where half of it went. Well …I think we know. Worse….heartbreaking is radical transparency, which our media is currently demonizing because it reveals a full scale criminal enterprise, US tax dollars being used to fund a globalist propaganda machine, fully left wing, including gender ideology and pretty much every effed up cultural mess in the last 20 years including Covid. All propagated by US and the globalists. So. Public opinion for Trump will continue to climb, cuz the guys showing the receipts, showing who we really are, the deep state running the show, and especially the TRILLIONS of US tax dollars these globalist criminals have used to spread their dastardly deeds and make themselves rich, a depopulationist death cult, hating us, making us complicit, the citizens more than anything. Clearly. So all I’m saying is we have major issues, including quickly careening to bankruptcy (by design) and citizens are done funding our destruction and yours. Don’t expect Americans to put Ukraine and NATO at the top of the priority list at the moment, especially since it’s an unending meat grinder killing thousands, distributing our tax dollars to the most corrupt. Whilst EU leaders get rich, scorn us, embrace pedophilia and lock up their citizens for speech and thought. We can’t unsee what is being exposed and taxpayers are having no more of it. We care about our economy, our border, eliminating woke, and locking up these criminals who have engaged in the biggest global crimes in history. The betrayal is raw, as the ones footing the bill for our own destruction, and yours. We wish Europe well but this is a whole new ballgame and will never be the same again. Hope we stick together but it’s time to shine the light, face reality, lock up the baddies and the United States piggy bank is DONE. As well as this hard left turn that the large majority of Americans do not support and never have. Trump has upwards of 70% approval for his major policies and keeping his promises. and it will climb. It’s a good thing to keep in mind as the media and globalists try to convince you otherwise. May not like his style, but he’s keeping his promises to the electorate, and the electorate supports what he’s doing. Radical transparency is the only way forward, for the United States at least. Corruption is worse than any of us imagined. And it’s exposing allll the baddy globalists and how they’ve worked together. Including Zelensky, including EU leaders. We aren’t in Kansas anymore and EU is on its own to finance Ukraine. The minerals are seriously the least they could do and Trump has all the leverage to make that demand. But he always seems a win/win and he’d never leave Europe “exposed” He doesn’t do what’s popular, but he does what right. And sometimes that hurts
Haha. This is an awesome conversation. Our US media is just as horrible and Im uplifted to see how truly aligned we are with our European brethren. Yay for comments section!
The EU and NATO don’t need to do anything. In fact, the less they do the better, because neither the EU nor NATO have the power or resources or legitimacy to do what needs to be done. In fact, the self-image of strength these trans-national organisations like to promote masks the problem that they don’t have much power or many resources of their own.
It is the nation state that raises the taxes and decides how the taxes are spent. It is nation state that raises the army. Defence starts with the nation state. The power of NATO and the EU comes from the nation states, not the other way round.
The very existence of NATO and the EU has allowed the nation states and their citizens to pretend defence is being dealt with at a higher level. That illusion has permitted national defence – and thus EU and NATO defence – to atrophy. But to end this illusion, NATO and the EU need to first accept their power is illusory and the real power, and responsibility, rests with the nation states.
Very insightful.
Well said. NATO was a dinosaur of the Cold War that should have gone away in 1992. Perhaps it was viewed as a prototype for a global military and enforcement mechanism that would make national armies obsolete. Whatever the reason, it was dependent on American hegemony and the willingness of taxpayers to support it. It was always contingent on American support. The entire globalist system and all the international organizations were dependent on US support. The US was always the one nation that could unilaterally break globalism, and it sure looks like that’s what’s happening. It’s time for Europe to get with the times because they are a changing.
It’s worse than that Nell. These organisations take on a life of their own as any powerful bureaucracy will. That is why there was so much loose talk about Ukraine joining the EU and NATO. Which – depending on your point of view – provoked Putin into invading or gave him the excuse he needed to invade. Either way, the autonomy that these globalist institutions achieve without proper oversight and control from their nation state members, has real world consequences.
Extremely well put.
As Robert Michels said ” Bureaucratic Oligarchy ” . Organisations end up being run for the benefit of those control them. All those politicians, civil servants and military officers working in Brussels is why the city has so many good restaurants.
Well said.
This simple truth has long been forgotten.
Just like the simple truth of a 42 year old man living his parentās basement doesnāt have much of a say when the parents sell the house and force him to leave. Western Europe is acting like a bewildered man child being asked to grow up and fend for himself.
Hi from United States …I’ve recently discovered Unherd and joined to understand and engage, and whilst I know bias exists throughout our current Western ideological cluster*** ….I just want to thank you for the comments section! I learn so much about the perspectives of EU, real people, real citizens, outside media narratives, and all who comment. Haha so juicy. But so helps to humanize all of us. Times are rocky, but sunlight is fabulous. Speaking from our perspective and this awakening in the United States, painful but necessary to move forward. Let’s all lean in and question everything. Great insight in above comment, very honest. I hope we can all stick together and right this ship, but clearly we are in a moment where it’s time to awaken and evaluate these decades long security agreements, entrenched corruption working against the citizenry, shared values, and the desired direction of the western world. Best to all.
The article is wrong, terribly wrong, there’s no such thing as Europe badly exposed to a potential future threat from Russia.It has been the otehr way around. EU + NATO + US Biden & Obama Adminiustration have been interfering in Ucrania since 2014 with the cup d’etat and the last move was to send therid dogs to pee & pooh at Rusian doorstep. EU was the main market for Rusian energy they dont need more land and they can afford other markets. All the story was a threat from the US democrat administration heavily marked by the RANDS agency to keep US statu quo as the main allies of EU and to keep Russia out, has been the same sin ce cold war era, yet trying to make people believe about the opposite
Russia has no intention whatsoever of invading “Europe”. In any event it is demonstrably incapable of doing so.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a “last resort” measure, having been rebuffed when it asked for a new security structure in Europe, and then watched NATO advance Eastwards, seen a coup in Ukraine, and trouble caused in its neighbouring states.
And all that after it assisted the USA in its “War on Terror” after 911.
Just because Russia is paranoid, and it understandably is, doesn’t mean the Neocons aren’t out to destroy it.
As for “Europe”, it is led by the most unimportant trivial “important people” it is possible to imagine. The phrase “all mouth and trousers” is entirely appropriate, there being nothing at all inside said trousers.
Iām sure youāre right about Russia not intending to invade Europe. Their preferred method is to exert political and economic pressure at the same time as meddling in the target nationās affairs. Behind it, however, is the overt threat of military action, usually cloaked as some need for defence. Only when a nation refuses to bow to all the pressures does limited military action take place. The threat is usually enough not only to cause the target nation to submit to imperial control but also deter larger nations from fulfilling their defense-guarantee obligations.
The 90s were an unholy mess for Russia, and the Western ‘economic advisors’ made things worse in their hubristic assumption that a democratic, free market economy would just emerge from it with a few nudges. There were enormous possibilities there, but they were wasted. Hence, Putin.
For the Neocons, the opportunity was not “wasted”. The Neocon view was that the US won the Cold War, and to the victor belong the spoils – the “spoils” here being Russia’s natural resources. It was all going so well and according to plan until PUTIN! Putin’s unforgivable crime was putting an end to the looting of Russia.
Now, it seems Neocons are determined to take second-best: Ukraine’s natural resources.
Nope. Russiaās natural resources are truly vast, yet unlike China it produces few exportable products. So itās delighted to sell its oil and gas, particularly if old antagonists in Europe are dumb enough to become dependent on them.
IF Europe has neocons perhaps they realized spoilsā¦our US neocons arenāt that bright. Theyāre more than happy to throw taxpayer money and young lives into senseless conflict, but never with a planned profitable outcome. With the new attitude that Trump has brought, thatās changing and perhaps weāll stop being the worldās cop, banker and patsy.
Putin only eliminated oligarchs he couldnāt control, thereās still plenty of themā¦but now heās the head thug and operates like a mafia Don.
No viewer of the BBC’s Newsnight will ever hear the word ‘lie’ used to describe the assertion that Ukraine would defeat Russia if she just kept fighting on; even with the military gear that Denmark’s prime minister says the country will ‘buy, buy, buy’. Buy from whom? The USA?
Viewers of Newsnight sitting on their sofas at home become one with the guests on the studio sofa and the BBC’s interlocutor. As if they were all upper class Edwardians reclining in a drawing room in Mayfair, sipping Earl Grey and nibbling fondant fancies, surrounded by ormolu and reproductions of old masters, steadfastly refusing to engage in conversations about what was happening on the Western Front. “We do not need to hear about all that, my dear.”
“…This is a time for the Europeans to really focus ā something they are not good at…”
This is like asking a bear to build a bathroom with chintz curtains and a bidet, rather than visiting the forest – you are asking the European leadership to be other than they are – which they cannot be. They will go to their graves defending the prioritising of values over power and survival. Europe needs a new generation of leaders, ones with a grasp of geo-realism.
Quite right.
So we need to clear out the passel of rogues that have installed themselves at the top and get back some adults.
I pay my money to read the comments, always excellent and usually well informed. Thank you.
Wow, I just commented. From United States and completely agree. Thank you all. It’s very educational to see our mainstream media also completely at odds with real humanity. You folks are super cool. Wish our media would get out of its own way and let more real voices speak.
Agree. I regularly recommend Unherd to my friends/family. Alas, most Americans pay scant attention to international affairs. That may be slowly changing, however, thanks to the new administrationā¦and particularly to the transparency effort known as Dogeā¦which terrifies the establishment but delights the disruptive conservatives.
Haha for sure. I’ve been quite attached to your comments, very educational and hopeful really. Our world is getting smaller, but a lot of leftist propaganda…and we are circling between a couple opposing forces, at least in Western culture. I didn’t think Europe had many conservative voices. It’s interesting. I can just tell from the rational, reasonable tone of your comments and genuine niceness š ohhh Doge! Honestly, it’s going to help all of us! Sunlight has a way of doing that. Best to you
Thank you thank you thank you.
I disagree, though, that the first order of business is military security, and certainly not spending targets. First of all, security is not the first priority, the economy is. If Russia really intends to attack any other European state, for which there is simply no evidence whatsoever, then spending more on a total failure is not going to make any difference.
And European defence currently is a total failure. The first order of business here is to reorient the military posture away from supporting the US’ foreign adventurism and back to actual defence. As the former Inspector-General of the German Bundeswehr, Gen Harald Kujat, has said, Ms. von der Leyen’s tenure as German Defence Minister was so successful in demolishing the Bundeswehr as a fighting force that it will take a decade to rebuild it – once a start is made, which is still way off.
The US’ military involvement in Europe is a red herring. In Cold War days, the US had pre-positioned several divisions’ worth of kit in Germany, and only had to fly in the personnel to constitute the divisions. All that is gone. There is no prospect whatsoever that the US could move any amount of troops and their equipment over the Atlantic, by sea or by air, in any useful time or at all. If Europe were militarily threatened, defence will have to be mounted by the forces then in theatre.
Any money spent on “defence” before such a reorientation is wasted.
Good idea. European nations should invest in their own defense, facilitating Americaās withdrawal of troops and money. Fear notā¦weāll be ready to sell you lotsa weapons for your misadventures.ļ»æ
I cannot wait for the day the EU collapses in on itself. A sclerotic authoritarian bureaucracy that is pulling the European economy down into oblivion. They are legislating out our historical economic successes and legislating against our future economic successes. A great and sober analysis of the real situation we find ourselves in regarding the Ukraine war (Russia have already won), that is completely missing from the MSM. The neo-cons over on the Daily Telegraph have been losing their minds for a week.
What damage can Russia, China and Islam bring that’s not already done? Hordes of invading foreigners? Tick. Energy shortages? Tick. The internet awash with spam, viruses, trojans and misinformation? Tick. Thank you BBC, MSM and the Left woke riddled institutions. China won’t shut down the High St, the pound shops, ebay bread and butter. Germany’s still desperate for energy. Never mind, the muttonheads can blame Trump and his hurty words.
1st: Why is no one talking about the fact that Trump is angry at Zelensky for backstabbing him during Russiagate and canāt stand him? Heās literally shutting him off from any support so he either resigns, gets voted out, or something else. Itās not even about the warāitās about settling an old vendetta first. Democracy is the cover but politics are just personal slights!
2nd: One must ask: what will happen if the suffocating pressure on Ukraine media ceases? What underlying issue is the EU attempting to avoid by focusing so intently on Ukraine? IDK, but those more knowledgeable than me should delve deeper than the surface. Why is the EU so fixated on this war, especially considering the stark disparities between the two nations involved? Russia boasts a population of approximately 147.2 million and possesses a vast nuclear arsenal AND other advanced weapons that it makes itself, while Ukraine, a young nation less than 40 years old, has seen its population dwindle to around 38.5 million due to ongoing conflict and demographic challenges? Makes no sense! something is missing.
3rd: It seems the EU might be having a tantrum, using “peacekeeping” the same way the West frequently uses “human rights”āas a convenient label to justify actions that often achieve the opposite. Just as “human rights” rhetoric has been used as a pretext for military intervention or economic exploitation, “peacekeeping” now serves as a cover for militarizationāstationing weapons at borders while claiming to uphold stability. But why? Who benefits from this cycle of perpetual tension and conflict? Is it really about security, or is there a deeper geopolitical agenda at play? we need more in depth analysis of the whys? even if we do not get a real answer – follow the money – who is benefiting from this fiasco?
4th:From my limited perspective, it seems that the only regions where U.S. weapons can be deployed effectively and on a large scale are Europe and the Middle East. Could this be one of the reasons behind the constant cycles of conflict? Is the EU essentially a recurring market for mass destruction, alternating with the Middle East every few years? But if that’s the case, why would such an educated population continue to accept it?
My main thought reading these comments is amazement that so many people still watch āNewsnightā.
This is a great gambit from the Trump administration to make Europe pay for its luxury beliefs (social programs, climate policies, migration policies, …). If they start paying for them (ie. dropping American subsidies on the European way of life), they may find they are too expensive as well.
I guess it all comes down to how it’s being paid for. US liberals discovered a while back (perhaps as early as Keynes) that it’s possible to spend someone else’s money “to do good” – what Jordan Peterson refers to as covering oneself in unearned moral glory.
As long as your country is printing the global reserve, and some Left-leaning administrators can dip into that essentially confiscating it at the source (ie. government bonds), you can have the illusion of creating free money to help the poor/oppressed/marginalised/under-represented. Of course it’s ultimately taking someone’s money and giving it to someone else (e.g. through inflation), no different really to what all the other Lefties have done in the past going as far back as the Left existed. And we see now that even in America you run out of other people’s money to spend in the end(as per Dalio).
Following Dalio’s thought process, this may be the make or break point for this iteration of the Western civilization. Either the “deep state” or “the establishment” will find a way still to subvert the democratically elected government, and re-instantiate the orthodoxy (which will likely lead to eventual collapse of Pax-Americana either way), or we will have the current attempt at recovery plot its path by giving up a number of luxury beliefs and force people to come back into reality.
What he said!