“WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!” was how Trump concluded — with all caps — a vague and grandstanding post announcing that his administration wishes to impose tariffs of 100% on films “coming into our Country that are made in foreign lands”.  He sold it as a matter of national security, claiming it was a “concerted effort” by foreign nations to take advantage of America.

Trump has discussed the film industry in similarly nationalist and nostalgic terms before. When Parasite became the first non-English language film to win Best Picture at the Oscars 2020, Trump responded with a resentful comment at a rally about how awful it was that a South Korean film won Best Picture at the Oscars. “Can we get Gone with the Wind back please?” said Trump to loud cheers from his fans.

But the main reason why Trump is pressing on with his proposed tariffs isn’t foreign films per se. Rather, it is the fact that, for decades, American film and television productions have increasingly branched out overseas because it’s cheaper to produce there than in Los Angeles — or the US more broadly — due to more attractive tax incentives and lower production costs abroad.

For example, the recent Marvel blockbuster Thunderbolts included scenes filmed in Kuala Lumpur, with its score recorded at Abbey Road Studios in London. Similarly, Australia’s Gold Coast has emerged as a popular hub for Hollywood productions, highlighting how different parts of a single project can span multiple continents. This trend extends to television as well; Rob Lowe, host of a Fox game show, revealed that the show is actually filmed in Dublin, noting that “it’s cheaper to bring 100 American people to Ireland than to walk across the lot at Fox, past the sound stages, and do it there”.

The plain reality is Hollywood doesn’t produce films primarily for an American audience. Most of its box office revenue comes from overseas markets (71% precisely), on which it has become increasingly dependent. This is why the decline in global box office revenues is notable, especially in important markets like China, South Korea and Japan, where audiences are increasingly favouring local films over Hollywood blockbusters.

The Chinese box office was so coveted by Hollywood that the big studios produced films specifically marketed to it. But China has undergone its own soft power project (demonstrated by the popularity of the video game Black Myth: Wukong) weaning itself off American films. The recent financial success of the animated film Ne Zha 2, notable for being the first film to make $1 billion in its own domestic box office, shows that Hollywood films can face stiff competition for the eyes and ears of overseas audiences.

If other countries choose to retaliate with tariffs on American films and instead invest in their own national film industries aimed at domestic audiences, it could reduce their reliance on offshored Hollywood productions. This would further cut into Hollywood’s box office revenues, which are still recovering from the aftershocks of Covid, the writers’ strikes of 2023, and last year’s wildfires.

Undoubtedly, this will harm American soft power, in which Hollywood has long played a central role. In trying to protect American cinema, Trump’s plan may end up accelerating its global decline.

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Ralph Leonard is a British-Nigerian writer on international politics, religion, culture and humanism.

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