Might Donald Trump’s meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky at St Peter’s Basilica yesterday translate into more pro-Ukrainian policies from the American President?

In unusually positive language towards Zelensky, the White House described the meeting on the sidelines of Pope Francis’s funeral as “very productive”. Zelensky said it had the “potential to become historic”. While the two leaders met for just 15 minutes, it appears that Trump came away with an at least temporarily more negative stance towards Vladimir Putin.

Albeit only very occasionally, Trump is sometimes deeply moved by certain diplomatic events. President Emmanuel Macron’s hosting of Trump for the 2017 Bastille Day military parade convinced the US President of his close and enduring personal relationship with the French leader. Trump’s audience with Queen Elizabeth II during his 2019 state visit to the United Kingdom similarly reinforced the idea of a special relationship with the UK. It is at least possible that this Vatican discussion of peace amid the pomp of a papal funeral will have the same impact. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Macron, who facilitated this meeting, will certainly have attempted to further bolster Trump’s sense of a historic moment.

Posting to his Truth Social website shortly afterwards, Trump condemned Putin. He lamented how Russian forces have been “shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe [Putin] doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions’?”

This is a markedly different tone from Trump, who despises the perception that it is he who is being manipulated, rather than him influencing others. Until now, his messages in relation to his Ukraine peace efforts have focused on heavy criticism of Kyiv’s leadership. This week, he highlighted Zelensky’s perceived rejection of US efforts to recognise Crimea as Russian-controlled territory. But Trump’s social media post had positive rhetoric for Ukraine even here. Trump blamed former President Barack Obama for making it possible for “Russia to steal Crimea from Ukraine”. Note the use of “steal” here.

Putin will be worried that Trump means what he says. The Russian leader had been relying on his manipulation of US negotiator Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s dislike of Zelensky, to buy space for his prevarication on ceasefire talks. But it seems that the Kremlin may have overplayed its hand. Zelensky almost certainly emphasised to Trump how, where he agreed to a ceasefire over six weeks ago, Russia still refuses to comply and is deliberately killing m0re Ukrainian civilians. Trump has often appeared genuinely moved by civilian casualties in war. Zelensky’s “I’m pro-peace, Russia is pro-death” message, especially at the Vatican, may have had a special impact.

The Kremlin will now fear that Trump might indeed introduce secondary sanctions on India, Turkey, and China in their purchases of Russian energy supplies. With oil prices already well below Moscow’s target for sustaining government spending and its Ukraine war effort, a loss of key energy revenue sources would be extremely problematic. While China would likely resist any US sanctions, India and Turkey would be unlikely to do so for reasons of economic and political self-interest. This is especially pertinent as those nations seek to negotiate deals to avoid Trump’s new tariffs.

The imposition of threatened US sanctions to fully isolate the Russian central bank and private banks from the international financial marketplace would also pose major problems for Putin. Russia’s economy is now bearing the weight of three years of war in terms of high inflation, falling growth, and a brain/capital drain. What’s more, Putin cannot sustain both domestic spending and his war effort without energy export revenue or at least marginal access to foreign financial markets. And the vast majority of banks which face sanctions by the US for dealing with Russia will stop doing so.

Put simply, Trump has cards to play. His newly hostile Russian language may not last more than a day; but if it portends a shift against the Kremlin, Putin has a problem.

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Tom Rogan is a national security writer at the Washington Examiner

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