It’s no secret that Donald Trump has been flailing recently. After starting his second term with a strong net approval of +11.6 points, his fortunes have flipped. The latest polling averages now show him in negative territory by seven points. Some recent surveys indicated Trump’s approval rating was the lowest of any president at the 100-day mark.

Democrats have barely been able to contain their glee over Trump’s fallen standing. When asked about whether the party was too focused on the deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, their leader in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, responded by simply mocking Trump’s dreary polling. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has similarly touted the polls as evidence that Americans are “fed up” with Trump.

There are a couple of problems with this, however. Perhaps most importantly, polling shows the Democratic Party is in even worse shape than Trump. For example, in the latest Economist/YouGov survey, a paltry 33% of Americans had a favourable view of the party compared to 42% who viewed Trump favourably. On net, Trump’s favourability was 11 points underwater compared to 20 points for Democrats. And whereas Trump’s approval rating mirrored his favourability at 42%, it was even worse for Jeffries (30%) and Schumer (23%).

Part of Democrats’ struggle has been unifying their own party: 76% of self-identified Democrats view the party favourably, but 21% do not. They are also deeply underwater with all-important independent voters, just 21% of whom view the party favourably. What’s more, Democrats’ polling position today is even weaker than it was at this same point in the 2018 midterm cycle, and Trump is positioned slightly better.

Of course, all this doesn’t spell immediate doom for Democrats. The midterms are still over a year away, and a year is a lifetime in politics. Their base’s frustration over what they see as a lacklustre response to Trump from their leaders isn’t likely to prevent them from turning out in 2026 to support Democratic candidates. But the party’s weak polling — especially compared to Trump — is a reminder that they cannot take anything for granted.

Trump’s recent polling dip has largely been driven by his failure to adequately address what was voters’ top concern in the election and remains atop their minds today: inflation. Voters are now more than twice as likely to say his policies, rather than Biden’s, are responsible for the state of the economy today. This may offer Democrats their best chance to make inroads against Trump with some of the voters whom they’ve lost.

But that means that Democrats cannot keep playing whack-a-mole in response to everything else Trump is doing. Rather, they should take a page from the Republican playbook. During President Obama’s first term, the GOP regularly took to the floor of Congress and cable news to excoriate the Affordable Care Act in a remarkably unified manner. Though the bill passed, its deep unpopularity helped lead to a bloodbath for the Democrats in the subsequent midterms. Democrats could give Republicans a taste of their own medicine by swarming social media, cable news, and C-Span with a disciplined message about the damage Trump’s tariffs will do to everyday Americans by raising costs even further. An approach like this could help the party tip the political scales back in their favour.

Democrats might assume that the typical laws of politics will kick in by next year. It’s true that the “out party” often makes substantial gains in midterm elections, especially when the president’s approval rating is in negative territory. But given that their favourability numbers aren’t below just Trump’s but Republicans’, too, it’s clear they have a lot of work to do before then.

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Michael Baharaeen is chief political analyst at The Liberal Patriot substack.

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