Tory MPs are in a state of shock. It’s not that the scale of their general election defeat has finally sunk in — rather, it’s the sheer ineptitude of their Labour opponents.

At the end of the worst week so far for the new government, we’ve seen the Prime Minister (“Free Gear Keir”) concede that he’ll no longer be accepting gifts of clothing. And, perhaps more seriously, the words “this can’t go on” are becoming attached to his embattled chief-of-staff, Sue Gray. Once the most feared civil servant in Whitehall, she’s become a figure of fun due to a completely avoidable row over her pay.

Like all the other missteps of Starmer’s first 100 days, Labour seems powerless to prevent small embarrassments from turning into major headaches. We haven’t had many polls since the general election, but what we do have appears to show significant damage. According to More in Common, Labour support is down six points to 29% — which is just four points ahead of the Tories. In the months after Labour’s landslide victory in 1997 Tony Blair went from strength-to-strength, but 2024 is a very different story. As Dominic Cummings puts it: “This government already has the air of a bunch of exhausted clueless hacks that usually takes years to acquire.”

Might this process of acceleration also apply to any Conservative comeback? It took 13 years for the Tories to return to office last time, but could that be reduced to the span of a single parliament this time round? They shouldn’t get ahead of themselves, given that the More in Common poll shows that they haven’t advanced at all. Instead, Labour has been bleeding support to the smaller parties. And here we come to the obstacles lying across the Conservative road to recovery.

The first is Reform UK. The Tory leadership contenders have lots to say about winning back the trust of their former voters — but almost nothing about how to deal with Nigel Farage. It’s as if the candidates have agreed to shut down any such debate. We haven’t heard the relevant questions, let alone the answers.

Then there are the Lib Dems, who took 59 seats from the Tories — 54 more than Reform did. There’s no reason to suppose Labour unpopularity will be bad for the yellows. Which is a problem, because there’ll be no Conservative recovery, let alone a majority, unless the Blue Wall is rebuilt in southern England.

A third obstacle is the Green Party, which took two seats straight from the Tories at the general election — a fact that speaks volumes about the Conservative collapse among younger voters. So what do the leadership contenders intend to do about that? Don’t speak all at once.

Finally, there’s the risk that Labour might get its act together. For instance, Starmer has just been to Italy to ask Giorgia Meloni about her success in reducing illegal immigration. If he succeeds against the small boats where Rishi Sunak failed, that could put the next Tory leader in a difficult position.

Of course, it’s more likely that Labour doesn’t improve. But that’s a problem for the Tories, too. In the absence of a second Tony Blair, who will jolt them out of failure mode?

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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