This week, California Governor Gavin Newsom sat for an interview where he chastised Democrats for refusing to explore last year’s loss. Speaking with The Hill, he said: “We have not done a forensic of what just went wrong, period, full stop. I don’t think it — I know it”.

Many people have called on the party to examine what went wrong and figure out a better path forward. So far, there’s little sign the party plans to do this. And given the frenetic start to Trump’s second term, many Democrats have already pivoted from introspection into resistance mode.

In lieu of an official party autopsy, we must rely on a handful of outside views about where the party has gone wrong. Initial polling after the election indicated that Kamala Harris was inhibited not only by inflation but by voters’ perceptions that she and the Democrats held extreme views on social and cultural matters, such as immigration and trans issues. This was confirmed by Blue Rose Research, led by David Shor, which found that Democrats are seen as too liberal for a centre-right country and have lost trust on key issues like Social Security and education.

At minimum, these findings mean that the party needs to get more comfortable running candidates with unorthodox views in harder-to-win places. But they must also ask how a vocal minority pushed them too far Left. If the party fails to fully reckon with the reasons for its loss, they’re likely to continue having trouble winning national elections — including possibly next year’s midterms.

As the Blue Rose postmortem (and plenty of pre-election analysis) showed, Democrats have serious structural vulnerabilities that have gone unaddressed for many years. For example, the party has been steadily shedding support from non-white and working-class voters for more than a decade. Both were core parts of the post-Second World War Democratic coalition, and their growing struggles with these voters have made them less competitive in key states. Working-class voters, specifically, are a major cause of concern.

Additionally, the last midterm election in 2022 demonstrated that the “out” party may not reap the rewards of public backlash by default. Joe Biden performed surprisingly well, but it’s also worth noting that the 2026 map looks challenging for Democrats. The Senate map, specifically, poses an uphill battle for the party: just one Republican-held seat is in a state that Harris carried last year (Maine). Beyond that, their best chances are in North Carolina — where they haven’t won a federal race since 2008 — or Ohio, a once-bellwether state whose sizeable working-class population has helped it become more firmly Republican.

Similarly, in the House, just three Republican-controlled districts went for Harris. Typically, when an out party has a good midterm, they pick up districts the other party’s president carried, but this nonetheless demonstrates that Democrats’ ability to make extensive gains may be limited in the House, too.

To be sure, Democrats have been significantly overperforming in off-year and special elections during the Trump era thanks to their growing advantage among the non-presidential electorate; this year has been no exception. Moreover, the out party historically does well in midterm elections. Given all this, some Democrats are already predicting success next year, including winning back the House of Representatives.

It’s also possible that the impact of Trump’s trade wars on the American economy will energise not just base Democrats but more moderate and working-class voters as well to rebel against the Republicans. But if Democrats hope to expand the map next year and make deep enough inroads to potentially even flip the Senate, they’ll have to win in areas of the country that have developed a deep distrust of the party. As the past eight years have shown, being reflexively anti-Trump isn’t enough to accomplish that.

That means keeping their eye on the ball and hitting Trump where he’s most vulnerable: the economy, inflation, and trade, where voters have been souring on his job performance. Democrats must also determine how they plan to address their vulnerabilities on the cultural front, especially where they are at odds with the overwhelming majority of the country — including their own base.

Ultimately, the riskiest move of all would be for the party to rest on its laurels and simply assume the normal laws of politics will deliver them big wins. Doing this could leave them awaiting a rude surprise next November.

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