November 30, 2024 - 1:00pm
It is a reflection of the existential crisis facing the SNP that some commentators are already calling for Nicola Sturgeon to return as leader to save the party. And when you look at its electoral performance, it is easy to see why. Not only were the Nationalists routed at the general election, but they have also now lost 18 council by-elections in a row since 4 July, despite the growing unpopularity of Keir Starmer’s Labour government.
Of course, there is the small issue that the SNP already has John Swinney, himself a former leader coaxed back into the top job to try and deliver the party from doom. But even Swinney’s staunchest supporters say privately that he lacks the charisma and the energy needed to reinvigorate a tired party which frequently looks bereft of ideas. And given he had previously declared his desire to stand down at the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, it is hardly surprising that other names are being mentioned.
One of those is Stephen Flynn, the leader of the much-reduced Nationalist cohort at Westminster, who has been consistently touted as a future leader. But his bungling attempt to secure a nomination for a Scottish Parliament seat — now considered a prerequisite of SNP leadership — has left him isolated and almost certainly out of the running.
Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, meanwhile, has ability and the advantage of already being in a senior position at Holyrood. Yet this is proving as much a hindrance as a benefit, not least given the SNP’s consistent failure to deliver either functioning public services, infrastructure or economic growth. For instance, a recent report by the respected Fraser of Allander Institute estimated that half of the Scottish Government’s £40 billion revenue budget is now spent on public-sector wages — a sign of a bloated devolved state that has ballooned at least partly under Forbes’s watch.
In such circumstances, is it any surprise that at least some Nationalists are beginning to hanker, even humorously, after Sturgeon and those halcyon, election-winning days that she delivered?
The practical problems with such a proposal are, of course, both manifest and multiple. Most obviously, Sturgeon is currently under police investigation in relation to defrauding the very party she would need to once again lead. Indeed, while she has surprised many by putting herself forward as a candidate again for the 2026 Holyrood election, SNP sources have questioned whether the former first minister will even pass their vetting procedures. Such issues would, it goes without saying, also preclude her from taking on the party leadership again.
The — admittedly self-confessed half-joking — proponents of the Sturgeon renaissance argue that, should she emerge from the police investigation unscathed, this could enhance or at least help restore her standing. Yet this too seems unlikely.
Since leaving office, Sturgeon’s approval ratings have plummeted. More than half of people in Scotland, as well as a quarter of SNP voters, no longer trust her. Meanwhile, there is increasing frustration among senior SNP politicians about the way she abandoned the leadership with no clear successor or plan.
Then there is Sturgeon herself, who has clearly decided to pursue a life beyond politics. The former leader now rarely speaks at the Scottish Parliament, preferring to save her public interventions for book festivals and cultural events. She also has her own handsomely-advanced memoir to finish and promote next year.
Perhaps the most important reason Sturgeon is unlikely to return to public life, though, is the fact that Scottish nationalism has entered a new era. With Alex Salmond’s passing, it has become abundantly clear that the Salmond-Sturgeon years are over, never to return. For many supporters of independence, Sturgeon represents a time when they were so close, yet so far. On her raison d’etre, she was ultimately a failure.
Yet it should be remembered that Sturgeon, despite all her faults, is no fool. She knows her legacy rests wholly on her impressive ability to win elections, with her tally to date standing at two devolved and three general triumphs. Given the state of the SNP, to return to the leadership now would mean returning to almost certain defeat. And the MSP for Glasgow Southside, ever the savvy operator, will have no desire to preside over that.
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Subscribe“More than half of people in Scotland, as well as a quarter of SNP voters, no longer trust her.”
Are you telling me that there are some non SNP voters who not only trusted her, but *still* do?
And *3/4 of the SNP* voters likewise? I find it difficult to believe. If these figures were true, then perhaps she should make a come.back from the dead, although she does seem to have aged A LOT lately. No more bathing in donkey (or is it ass??) milk or sitting on human leather chairs can make you age fast, it seems.
“Yet it should be remembered that Sturgeon, despite all her faults, is no fool. ”
Liddle has to give up the KOOL aid. It is not good for him (or maybe Liddle is a “her” now, who knows, after all if s/he thinks that Sturgeon is no fool there must be a reason…)
The international landscape has changed so much since 2014 that the SNP must go back to the drawing board and reinvent themselves. Over a twenty year period, show the Scottish people that they can run public services and budget wisely. No talk of independence and drop the pathetic woke drivel that just pollutes their brains. Serve the people, not dictate to the people; then try an independence referendum again. By then, of course, being a small independent country might be a bad idea.
Trouble is that people who have spent their lives “p1ssing and moaning” never turn out to be good at running things.
Disband the devolved parliaments… Another part of Blair’s legacy we’d be better off without.
Sturgeon’s sudden resignation was a surprise.
But we can guess there was a plan, to rapidly extract herself from the ‘men in womens prisons’ gender hole, lay low for a bit and wait for the SNP to come crawling back begging her to take over. A delightful situation giving her even more power.
Will her wild gamble pay off?
No. You cannot dine on yesteryears successes without refreshing the past failures. It is very difficult for a Leader to ‘resume’ once the bonus of ‘continuity’ has been cast aside.
The SNP would be unwise to bring back Nicola Sturgeon
Shame – we good all do with a good laugh right now.
Sturgeon is just a typical opportunist who eventually got found out. Even if the police never complete their fraud investigations, it’s over for her in Scotland. However, with her “attributes”, a promising next career move at the WHO, EU or UN beckons.
The title of this article is clickbait, unworthy of UnHerd.
I wonder, if Brexit had failed, would elements of the Westminster establishment have launched an operation to discredit the proponents of Brexit the way they discredited Alex Salmond as the champion of Scottish independence. After his tragic passing he is now safely lauded as a towering figure. From the perspective of England it seems to me that Nicola Sturgeon was the Westminster stooge, she was bought, and she achieved their aims.
If I was Scottish I would have no love for Nicola Sturgeon or her Westminster puppeteers.
Conspiratioral nonsense. Salmond and Sturgeon and the SNP screwed it all up themselves. They didn’t need any help from Westminster.
And quite why and how the Scottish people would have been convinced by a Westminster campaign to discredit the SNP is, in the original sense of the word, incredible.
We’re now far more aware of just how poor the quality of the SNP MPs was when they won 56 out of 57 constituencies in (I think) 2015. Much the same is going on today with Labour – you suddenly have too many positions to fill and not nearly enough good candidates to fill them.
Whatever happened to the police investigations into Sturgeon’s huband and the SNP finances ? As far as I’m aware these are still ongoing and unresolved.
Curious how slowly some of these investigations are progressing.
“the MSP for Glasgow Southside, ever the savvy operator”
Savvy operator? The architect of the policy of incarcerating rapists in female prisons?