In the pre-Leveson era, the UK’s police chiefs were adept at spinning news. News International, for example, seemingly enjoyed a lobby-style relationship with New Scotland Yard, before the Met was forced to raid the Murdoch empire’s Wapping redoubt. Afterwards, for a time, the police withdrew from the media-political fray, before a new generation of compliant, Home Office-friendly chief constables were maneuvered into position.

Now, though, with police efficiency crumbling, and scandal mounting upon scandal, might this change? The Police Federation, the staff association representing rank-and-file officers, yesterday warned Andy Burnham the “public will judge your decision on PC Harper’s killers”. The furor emerged after it became apparent the Government’s early prisoner release scheme would mean two of those responsible for police officer Andrew Harper’s 2019 death would be eligible for parole, despite their only serving just over six years in custody.

The Police Federation’s position is precarious, the organization’s credibility shredded by a series of scandals. Yet, in this instance, it found itself an ally in the Chief Constable of Harper’s force, Thames Valley Police. The otherwise amiable police chief Jason Hogg, realizing the strength of feeling from his potentially mutinous officers, is prepared to back a judicial review of the Government’s early release policy. That this will almost certainly fail is secondary to the political message he’s sending his officers: I’m on your side. To the Government, the message is not so subtly different: an act of near heresy. Is the era of police media reticence changing?

The Federation’s position, emboldened by Hogg’s support, might even be viewed as cunning. After all, it has been weakened by years of underfunding and mismanagement from both central and local government. Police chiefs no doubt consider Harper’s case worth fixing bayonets for. Still, it’s similarly easy to imagine a political version of judo played by an unlikely alliance of bosses and workers.

Compared to the leviathan of the Government and Home Office, police forces are collectively using their small size and relative weakness to their advantage. The Prime Minister is famously keen to be liked, and No. 10’s comms team may see the police move as a coordinated effort. Its response will be revealing, possibly emboldening other police chiefs confronted by intractable operational problems and collapsing public support.

Most policing practitioners, and even a few chief officers, are aware of why the service is failing so badly: a lack of funding, sopping wet law, and the quality of recruits and training. For the Federation, with its own demons to conquer, the PC Harper case offers a chance for redemption. Similarly, many chief officers are savvy enough to predict a political reckoning for their incompetence. With police reform on the horizon, it seems possible the herd is beginning to move.

Labour’s reaction will be significant for relations between the Government and the police. Will the Prime Minister back the police, inviting pressure on other issues, or the Home Office criminal-justice elite? Many inside policing genuinely fear the service is only a few more cases like Simon Levy or Henry Nowak away from collapse. Labour suffers from its own internal contradictions; the “soft Left” appear happy with the status quo, yet prominent figures such as Angela Rayner reportedly hold fairly robust views on law and order. Will they see a chance to stick it to Tories and Reform UK, or will the soft Left win?

Otherwise, should the status quo prevail, and Britain’s failing justice system continue to degrade operational policing, rank-and-file officers might again lobby for industrial rights. Meanwhile, community “security teams”, verging on vigilantism, continue to appear. The last thing any government needs is for the police to rediscover its talent for dark arts and spin. Yet the next move lies with police officers waiting for the next inevitable scandal to break. Police at all levels have had enough of being thrown under the bus; it shouldn’t surprise the Government that, finally, the mouse has decided to roar.