July 2, 2024 - 5:56pm

→ The kids love Nigel Farage

No wonder Rishi Sunak wanted to conscript the young. A recent JLP poll has shown that, among 16 to 17-year-olds that Reform UK is more popular than the Tories. With 23% support, Reform came in behind Labour at 39%, with the Greens on 18%. The Tories, meanwhile, are on a measly 5%.

 The really shocking stats, however, arise along the gender divide. For males, Reform and Labour are joint top on 35% while the Conservative Party does slightly better than it previously did on 11%.

For females, the Tories are on a deadly 0%. Although much has been written about the political divide between the sexes with young women being more Left-wing and young men on the Right, Reform is still at 12% among the female cohort.

The stats say extending the franchise to 16-year-olds would add 1.5 million people to the electorate. Anyone willing to do the maths to see how many extra fans Farage would have?

→ Biden campaign in denial about debate disaster

Joe Biden’s no-good-very-bad week is turning worse and worse. A poll shared on the Silver Bulletin Substack shows Biden’s win probability slipping from 34.7% on 27 June (the day of the debate), to 27.6% on 1 July.

It’s yet another indication of how terminal things have become for the president. But some Democrats aren’t taking the hint. According to campaign insiders, internal polling in swing states remains the same as it did before the debate, with Biden narrowly trailing Trump. Weija Jiang of CBS News posted on X: “The Biden campaign’s internal polling shows that the President’s support is unchanged following the debate, with Trump leading 46% to Biden’s 45% — virtually identical to its polling in May.”

But as Olivia Nuzzi notes, this is pretty desperate stuff considering that it shows Biden still losing. Nothing to worry about, then

→ Macron labelled a fascist by Italian communist paper

Emmanuel Macron’s Jupiterian moment is certainly over. The French president is having a tough time at the moment, what with his almost certain defeat in the second round of the snap French elections to Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. He is certainly no Caesar.

The Italian daily communist paper Il Manifesto has gone all out in its attack of the French president. The paper’s headline reads “Veni, Vidi, Vichy,” mixing the famous Julius Caesar phrase meaning “I came, I saw, I conquered,” with a reference to the French Vichy collaborationist government during the Second World War that failed to oppose the Nazi occupation. In the piece, they call Macron a “fascist appeaser”. Wow, tough crowd.