June 3, 2024 - 5:45pm

And so, there it is: the Conservative Party’s worst nightmare has come to pass. Nigel Farage has taken over as leader of Reform UK and will stand for parliament in Clacton, the one constituency where he has a genuine chance to finally enter Parliament at his eighth attempt. It is a potentially seismic moment in British politics reminiscent of Enoch Powell’s endorsement of the Labour Party in 1974. Ted Heath would forever blame Powell for costing him the election that year, dragging him from power and eventually clearing the way for Margaret Thatcher. Rishi Sunak might well be thinking similarly dark thoughts today.

In the end, the truth is Farage simply could not resist standing. He had already been flirting with the idea for months. In March he told me he was “edging towards” running, only to seemingly be caught on the hop by Rishi Sunak’s snap election announcement. Having initially ruled himself out of the running, the new Reform leader seems to have realised what he was giving up and changed his mind: visions of glory no doubt flashing before him. Fortuna had intervened.

The immediate consequences of Farage’s announcement are obvious. According to the latest mega poll, Farage stands a better chance than ever of entering parliament. One poll released before his announcement put him ahead of both the Tories and Labour in the seat. This alone is significant. Beyond this, Farage’s assumption of the leadership will also act as a shot in the arm for Reform’s campaign nationally, potentially bringing a handful of others seats into play.

But here’s the really transformational prospect that must now be seriously considered: there is now a genuine, non-negligible chance that Nigel Farage will not simply enter parliament in July, but eventually lead a new Reformed Conservative Party into the next general election.

Such a scenario might not be likely, but it is certainly now plausible. Imagine the situation on 5 July with the Conservative Party reduced to a rump of just 100 seats or so and Farage and one or two of his colleagues sitting alongside them on the opposition benches. Many of the prospective replacements for Rishi Sunak have lost their seats and the ones who are left hardly fill the membership with excitement.

Might Farage immediately enter negotiations to fold his party into the Conservatives? As I wrote back in December, Reform is not a normal party where such a decision would have to be put to the membership. Reform is a company owned and controlled by Nigel Farage — it would be his decision and his decision alone.

Even if this did not happen, the Conservative leadership election would be dominated by the simple question of whether Farage would be admitted into the party. The winner of this election is likely to be one of the candidates who answered yes. But from this point, the only story in Westminster would be the eventual leadership of Farage himself.

There are plenty of reasons to question this chain of events coming to pass. Farage may narrowly lose again. The remaining Conservative MPs may circle the wagons to stop Farage joining. They may allow him to join but refuse to put him forward for the leadership or allow the new leader of the party to be removed.

In October 1974, Enoch Powell reentered parliament as an Ulster Unionist MP with hopes that he may still become leader of the Conservative Party and eventually Prime Minister. Until 1974, the Ulster Unionists had taken the Tory whip and so were effectively one parliamentary party. With Powell, this changed and his path to the Tory leadership was blocked. He had helped drag the party from power and so could not be permitted to lead it, even as it was dragged towards Powellism under Margaret Thatcher.

Might history repeat itself with Farage? Will he eventually fall short of his desire to take over the Tories only for Faragism to do so ideologically? Perhaps. But much as there are parallels with the past, there is a volatility to today’s politics incomparable even with the 1970s. A Faragiste takeover of the Tory party should not be ruled out. The Tory party is a fundamentally weaker organisation today, far more at risk of a hostile takeover.

There is of course another omen. Nigel Farage is today hoping to use Clacton as his launchpad to power in Westminster. And it was from Clacton that Enoch Powell first entered the debate about Britain’s future in Europe in 1969. Europe and immigration: the explosive mix with the potential to upend British politics for the past half century. Maybe Farage will go one better than his inspiration.


Tom McTague is UnHerd’s Political Editor. He is the author of Betting The House: The Inside Story of the 2017 Election.

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