October 27, 2024 - 2:00pm

Tbilisi

It is revealing that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was the first foreign leader to chime in on Georgia’s election — a full hour before the preliminary results were announced. He congratulated the ruling pro-Russian Georgian Dream party on its victory and the Moscow-friendly leader will soon visit the capital, Tbilisi, in a move that will further frustrate the pro-EU opposition.

This election wasn’t just about who controls parliament — it was about whether the country retains any meaningful independence from Russia. Bidzina Ivanishvili, officially retired from politics but still holding the reins, is seen by many as Georgia’s de facto ruler having founded Georgian Dream. The eccentric oligarch has promoted narratives of a “Global War Party”, painting pro-Western opposition as puppets trying to drag Georgia into war. This rhetoric has justified a brutal anti-media and NGO crackdown, introducing the Kremlin-inspired “foreign agent” law and a fiercely anti-Ukrainian rhetoric.

While Georgian Dream claims to have secured a win with 54% of the vote, opposition groups claim the government has “stolen the election” and are vowing to fight until the end. This, in Georgia, usually means they take to the streets. It suggests another wave of public protests to follow those seen in May. The question now is how massive, and game-changing, they can be.

While Georgia is a tiny country with a population of 3.7 million at the farthest outskirts of Europe, its ideological direction of travel matters. It has been a foothold for Western influence in the Caucasus and an EU-ally on the border with Russia. Hundreds of Georgians — more than any other foreign nation — are fighting in Ukraine, viewing Kyiv’s battle as an extension of their own in the wake of Vladimir Putin’s brief 2008 invasion. The two countries share a history of resisting Moscow and their fate is intertwined.

Western governments are watching closely; losing Georgia would hand Moscow a critical victory in its war of influence. These elections might well have been the last chance for Georgia to reclaim its pro-Western path before fully succumbing to Moscow’s sway. Georgian Dream has shrugged off reprimands and threats of sanctions from the EU and the US, while Brussels has halted EU accession talks for as long as the democratic backsliding continues.

With victory declared, the buoyant Georgian Dream seems poised to make good on its promises to further silence the opposition, and to whip the independent media and NGOs either into submission or outright fleeing the country. The opposition has vowed to resist, setting the stage for a volatile few months. If protests grow, Moscow could press Georgian Dream to stamp them out, echoing Belarus’ brutal crackdown in 2020. Alternatively, Ivanishvili, seeing his grip on power loosened, may mimic President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko and ask the Kremlin for assistance.

The West, for now, seems to have failed in its efforts to keep Georgia out of Putin’s hands. By allowing the war in Ukraine to drag on, the EU and Nato have empowered the Kremlin’s cronies. Very soon, the West may see that Russia has seized yet another country under its nose, this time without even firing a shot.


Vazha Tavberidze is a staff writer with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Georgian service. He is based in Tbilisi.

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