The first results filtering through from the local elections point to cracks of light rather than a bright new dawn for Reform UK, but Nigel Farage certainly won’t be complaining. In Runcorn and Helsby, the party made history by winning its first by-election, but also by the narrowest margin in over a century. A mere six votes gave Reform the edge over Labour. In the North Tyneside mayoral contest, Keir Starmer’s party held on by fewer than 500.

While not the earthquake Farage was looking for, these results show Reform moving forward, picking up a seat in one of Labour’s safest areas and challenging established parties across the country. In the Lincolnshire mayoral race, ex-Tory minister Andrea Jenkyns has romped home streets ahead of her former party. Council results, too, are looking good for Reform, as the party has emerged overnight with the most wins (though most places will be counting through Friday).

These results tell us a few things. The most obvious is that Reform’s polling numbers are, for the first time, translating into by-elections and local results, further evidence that its history of being a Westminster-focused party is ending. They also show that Farage can squeeze the Conservative vote effectively when he sniffs victory. Early indications show that Reform consolidated much of the Right-wing vote in the places it won.

For Labour, this is a real warning. Four years after the party was shaken by losing Hartlepool to the Tories, it is once again under attack in seats previously considered safe. Yes, by-elections are used to punish the Government, and yes, this was also caused by a sitting Labour MP’s misconduct, but this result should have been a foregone conclusion. Instead, the party has suffered an embarrassing defeat.

That places like Runcorn — an hour’s drive from Southport, the epicentre of last year’s riots — are turning away is an indication of the trouble Labour is in. To an extent, Starmer is losing votes to Reform. More strikingly, however, Labour voters are refusing to back the party, staying at home or moving Leftwards even when Farage is a threat. In this narrow contest, a two-horse race from the start, the Greens pulled in over 7%, almost as much as the Tories. Labour’s inability to win these voters over in a tight race should be a real cause of concern for the Prime Minister.

Later in the day, we are likely to see the bigger aspect of the Reform surge. These overnight results have shown the party taking plenty of places from the Tories. That is set to continue, with Conservative heartland councils perhaps even flipping to Reform control. As much as Labour struggled to contain Farage in Runcorn, Kemi Badenoch is likely to look like the real loser from today. In Northumberland, the first county council to declare full results, Reform has just one seat fewer than the Conservatives.

The exact numbers will be hashed out through the rest of the day. The message is already clear: these have been big local elections for Reform. Farage has pushed the Tories across the country, scalped Labour in a by-election, and won in more places than ever before. Reform has moved beyond being a top-down, Westminster-driven party, and is now racking up council seats and mayoralties. It is undeniable that the party has a foothold in our politics; and with both Labour and Conservatives struggling to contain Farage, this now looks like a solid base from which to expand.

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John Oxley is a corporate strategist and political commentator. His Substack is Joxley Writes.

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