According to a Financial Times report this week, the European Union is considering support for the restarting of Russian gas flows to the continent. This would come as part of a potential deal between the West and Russia to end Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
But such a decision would be extremely misguided. Indeed, not since the German government shut down the country’s three remaining nuclear power plants in April 2023, at the height of the energy crisis which resulted from the very same war, has such a daft policy been proposed.
For one thing, renewing gas purchases in significant volumes would once again leave Europe vulnerable to the Kremlin’s energy terrorism. Even before the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines that Russia, Germany, and a consortium of profit-seeking but now deeply-out-of-pocket energy firms backed despite the vociferous opposition of several EU leaders, Putin toggled the gas that they delivered on and off in the first half of 2022 to wreak havoc on European energy markets.
This was a clear attempt by Moscow to weaponise inflation and weaken European unity in the wake of the 2022 invasion. It is often underappreciated that Putin launched his attack just as inflationary pressures from the bullwhip effect that followed Covid-19 lockdowns and trade disruption were beginning to sting.
Another reason why the new EU proposal will be unworkable is that Europe will at best take a secondary — more likely tertiary — role in any eventual negotiations around a ceasefire in Ukraine. Russian officials have in fact insisted that such negotiations be held with Washington directly, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also emphasised that the United States must be Kyiv’s primary partner in overseeing a settlement.
During his first term, US President Donald Trump denigrated Germany’s attempts to build the second Nord Stream network and backed threats of sanctions over its construction. He promoted US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as a “freedom gas” alternative, an apt description now even though it was ridiculed at the time.
America’s LNG exports played a key role in alleviating Europe’s Putin-induced energy crisis two years ago, and Trump is now insisting that the EU buys more. Planning to once again expand European purchases of Russian gas would fly directly in the face of that effort. On top of this, Washington can simply refuse to grant sanctions waivers for payments — or further increase its sanctions on Russia, as Trump has recently threatened.
Importantly, it is not only US permission that must be sought to restart Russian gas flows but also Ukrainian approval. And while Zelensky has recently stated that he is open to the use of Azerbaijani gas, to be supplied through Ukraine — an effort that failed last year due to sanctions complications — Kyiv refuses to renew transshipment of Russian gas over its own territory. Even if there were US and EU unity around renewal, such supplies would hardly be secure. Yet Brussels seems incapable of learning from its mistakes, let alone acknowledging them. Plus ça change.
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SubscribeThis is utter drivel. Europe is currently buying record amounts of Russian gas, only it is now mostly much more expensive LNG, made even more expensive because all the middlemen whitewashing the LNG need a cut.
The notion of “Kremlin energy terrorism” is nonsense. Russia did not stop gas deliveries to Europe – Ursula von der Leyen and Vladimir Zelinsky did. Russia did not blow up Nordstream, the official narrative du jour is even more ludicrous.
Au contraire! The resumption of Russian gas flows would prove that, for once, Brussels is capable of learning from its mistakes—though, plus ça change, the lesson will likely be forgotten soon enough.
Leaving their energy supplies in the hands of a belligerent and hostile foreign power with a history of ignoring agreements and weaponising gas flows? Yep, real sensible!
If there’s two options on the table, the EU will invariably choose the wrong one
Billy Bob doth project too much, methinks!
In what way? You think it’s sensible politics to leave a large portion of your energy needs in the hands of a dictator such as Putin?
Better than having the whole of the Russian land mass taken into USA ownership. It’s such an outrage that those bloody foreigners expect us to PAY MONEY for their stuff. We need to teach em a lesson like we did India (stole their cotton trade,took it to Manchester,and the Chinese,fought two wars to I make the cheeky buggers accept Opium – and like it,instead of actual money. This little people need putting in their place. Bloody cheek. Expecting us westerners to pay actual money for their resources.
The “belligerent and hostile foreign power” with a history of disregarding agreements (including NATO’s expansion) and weaponizing gas flows—is not Russia.
The weaponization of sanctions and the reserve currency remains a unilateral hegemonic tool of neoliberal U.S. policy (with its European minions in tow), a post-Cold War “end of history” delusional strategy. Throughout the Cold War, despite political tensions (including numerous proxy wars globally), the totalitarian Soviet Union remained a reliable supplier of energy to Western Europe, facing no sanctions.
Today, National Oil Companies (NOCs) control over 85% of global oil reserves and account for about half of the world’s oil and gas production. Outside of Norway’s Equinor, all NOCs operate under authoritarian (or outright dictatorial) regimes.
Yes,that Netanyahu has no respect for countries borders or for human life.
You’re misrepresenting what happened.
The “weaponisation” of gasflows was a reaction to western sanctions on the Russian economy and the freezing (basically stealing) of Russian foreign assets. The EU did that to itself.
The breaking of agreements is also a bit rich considering Merkel and Hollande actually came out and said the peace negotiations in Minsk were really a ruse to arm the Ukrainians. There is also the broken promise to not expand NATO and Bojo scuppering negotiations which would’ve stopped the war right at it’s onset (and left the Ukrainians infinitely better off than with western “help”).
Finally let’s talk about being sensible. Is it sensible to leave yourself at the whims of your “ally” (or rather overlord)? Because of the stupid decisions above, whenever Trump says jump, Europe will have to ask how high. Greenland is a case in point, if Trump really wants it, there’s no way for the EU to say no. Good thing we destroyed our options of having relations with any great power other than the americans, real sensible.
This article misses the important aspect of the upcoming negotiations — that is, the United States will not take sides. Instead, the US will be an honest broker between Ukraine and Russia, and as an honest broker will try to find a win-win solution that both sides will prefer over further war.
In negotiations like these, all ideas should be considered. It makes no sense to say that the resumption of Russian gas shipments to Europe should never happen. If both parties agree to that, there’s no reason why Russian gas sales shouldn’t be part of the grand bargain.
If Europe does not want to buy gas from Russia, that is their decision of course. But trying to figure out the end point of negotiations before they even start is a fool’s game. The purpose of negotiations is to start talking and let the process evolve to an unknown solution.
Donald Trump, for all his faults, is a master at the art of the deal. I hope age has not hobbled him from this task, and we’ll have to see what happens. But saying Russian gas sales to Europe would be a huge mistake, as this article does, is a huge mistake. Shutting off possibilities at this stage of negotiations is exactly what we should not do.
“Donald Trump, for all his faults, is a master at the art of the deal.”
Remind us of how many failed businesses Trump has had and how many times he has been bankrupted?
He is a joke as a businessman and an even bigger joke as president. Looks like the laugh is on you…
Why don’t you remind us how many failed businesses he has. Then please confirm what his net worth is.
Maybe we should all try to get a couple failures.
(I’m doing my part)
I read somewhere that if he’d done no more than keep all of the real estate that his father owned, and invested the rent wisely, he’s be worth $80 billion now.
You may have read it. It’s not true.
Oh. What do you say the actual figure is?
My guess is that you are being straight.
That’s too bad it be really humourous if you were just setting up the joke.
I agree that banning the sales of gas to Europe, my argument is that it would be a mistake for Europe to start buying it again. Leaving themselves beholden to a regime as untrustworthy as Putin would be a fools game in my eyes.
While they have supplies from America and the Gulf states they should continue to use that while looking at ways of making themselves more energy independent.
Not that this will happen of course
The US regime seems at least as untrustworthy as Putin at this particular moment in time. Trump, in his utter ignorance, seems determined to tariff us all into economic depression because his ego is bruised. Is there anyone in US leadership who has the gumption to point this out to him? Its seems unlikely for the next two years at least.
Tariffs only affect us citizens.
Ultimately everybody.
I think the classic economic theory would have it that this should be an incentive for entrepreneurs in the USA to open factories (like the Chinese would) making boring and dull but neccesary things like screws,pins,all those unglamorous but essential components. But in a land where being a Hollywood star or a tech creative star is the only possible aspiration worth the name and settling for anything less is despicable that’s just not going to happen. I’ve certainly not heard of any enthusiasm for building a screws factory in Tennessee or establishing a plastic toy that breaks five minutes after purchase factory in Montana etc.
As you point out Europe would be foolish to rely heavily on Russia supplying gas. But that is not as much a problem as you make it out to be. Europe now has access to all the gas it needs, but at a high price. If Europe now were to buy some gas from Russia at a cheap price, that does not make it beholden to Russia. If Russia were to back out, Europe can again turn to more expensive sources.
That sort of system based not on trust but on actual performance worked well as Russia continued to supply Europe with some gas even throughout the Ukraine war until it was Ukraine who turned off the spigot last December. Russia got money, Ukraine got transfer fees, Europe got gas. Win, win, win.
Energy independence doesn’t really work as a concept in today’s world. It’s the same pipe dream as the idea of a nation achieving total economic self-sufficiency, able to produce all goods and services domestically and avoid imports. The goal is to reduce reliance on external sources and increase internal resilience. That is not totally wrong, but it makes more sense as a political slogan than it does as an economic principle.
As we try to end the Ukraine war, we need to look at ways that Russia and Ukraine can work together. Restoring Russian gas exports to Europe, with Ukraine getting some of the proceeds from that, would help with that, making a win-win-win again. We need to avoid treating Russia like Germany was treated after World War I, and think more about how to do a new Marshall plan.
The flaw in your theory is that the Germans are an inherently civilised people, and the Russians are inherently barbarians.
Have you MET any Russians. That is an ignorant and untrue statement. Russians are intensely civilized. They are kind and HONEST (unlike Americans ) they are hard working and respect laws (unlike Americans). And they are deeply spiritual and love God and Holy Russia unlike sly spiv Ukrainian gold diggers who enjoy having a Yid represent their country. You can tell Bibi I said that.
Yes, quite a few. I spent a bit of time in the Seychelles, at a time when it was a favored destination for Russian oligarchs. I don’t think I have met a more repulsive bunch of people anywhere. Interestingly, my grandfather met quite a few too, during a 7 year “holiday” he had in Siberia at the end of WW2.
My relatives on one side of the family might have similar views of the Ukrainians being as they were subjected to effectively a series of genocide attempts in the 15th to 20th centuries thanks to the numerous pogroms.
They were lucky enough to settle in England having been driven out of Kiev in 1881 where they flourished.
Very unfortunate for your grandfather but, on the basis of his “holiday” at the end of WW2, I’m assuming he wasn’t fighting on the allied side at the time of his capture.
I don’t hate the Russians because of the experiences of my grandfather. I hate them because of everything they have said and everything they have done for the past century (starting with embracing communism, the most evil of political philosophies).
Wow. You make a fair point. And then prove yourself to have exactly the same repulsive prejudices you criticise (just against a different group of people).
Do you have any self-awareness at all ?
Billy Bob, they’re going broke. The Russian gas is – or at least was – cheap. What is the point of this self denial? For what? American proxy wishes? It’s daft and he destroyed German economy.
And ADF enter stage left.
What destroyed the German economy was the closing down of the nuclear plants. If they were still running the gas prices would be a minor issue.
Germanys issues predate Putin invasion by a number of years
The point of it is to economically break a country which is the enemy of the Free World.
What Free World. We are less free than they are. I’ve never enjoyed all this freedom of choice and freedom of expression that you all go on.about. I know thats partly down to my individual nature. But I never had the choice in the womb to decide how I would look or be. Not all people of the West have had access to all these vaunted blessings. So I’ve got no investment whatever in a War to ensure YOUR continued practice of what I’ve never been allowed to have.
I can publicly criticize the leader of both counties I am a citizen of in quite vigorous and base terms, without any fear of reprisals. A Russian can’t do that.
Try criticising Israel Maverick.
Even in Unherd comments.
I have no beef with “Israel”, although I an no friend of “Netanyahu”, whom I consider to be personally corrupt.
Oh look, I got a downvote. You were right.
Who’s in this “free world” then?
Have you seen the rents?
Have you noticed free speech in the free world dwindling?
Free world is a Reagan era trope that has past its used by date.
In order, 1) US, Canada, Britain, Australia, Western Europe and a few others, 2) Not sure what “rents” have to do with anything, 3) No. I can still speak freely, 4) The term was common in the Reagan-era, but the idea is still good.
We already but ship tanker loads of Russian oil. Thats why our lights are still on. Wherever there is a market there are people who can devise ways to supply it. And the ‘Walkers’ (Dad’s Army ref) are out there doing just that.
The USA….Honest….I’ll die laughing. Individual Americans are Lovely. So why are they allowing a shit bemired disgusting Mafia to run their country.
No idea. I am Australian. We let a mentally retarded guy run Australia. It’s a DEI thing.
What utter nonsense.
Trump has no interest in anything he doesn’t have a stake in. Ludicrous to believe he could be an honest broker. He always has an angle.
This seems a pointless discussion. The West can decline to buy Russian gas if they wish, and Russia can sell their gas elsewhere. What is important, is that all sides should cease killing and destroying the other. What was this war about? I have forgotten.
Russia selling gas to Europe might form a part of a deal for all sides to cease killing and destroying the other.
Surely Europe would not be so retarded as to accept such a deal?
No because they’ll send Bojo with another £15million in his pocket to scuttle the deal.
If I encounter him while he is engaged in that task, I will buy him a beer.
Hugs all around. Two hugs for those with Alzheimer’s.
It is about a warmongering tyrant leading a nation of barbarians trying to take territory that does not belong to him.
Yep. That’s Netanyahu all right,and the Head of the USA political administration which ever individual holds that office. They all get their orders from the R families,who,say it loud,all happen to be Jewish. Have I just broken the law. Probably.
The difference is that the Israelis are inherently “good”, even though they might occasionally do things that don’t look so good. The Russians on the other hand are inherently “bad”, which of course is why the only things that they have ever done that might look good (for example, fight Hitler) were done for naked self interest.
Right… I’d rather say that every single comment you write is inherently “cretinous”.
You like Russians? Maybe you could move there.
The frickin Jews thats what.
The US and Russia will decide the terms of a resolution of this war. Everyone else, diplomatic niceties aside, will do as they’re told. The US has many ways to discredit/sideline Zelensky if necessary, and Europe lacks the cohesion required to assert its will.
Why would the US sideline Volodymyr Zelensky? What would we gain from that? The Ukraine war does not involve any US interests, but we have supported Ukraine as a fledgling democracy. Why would we now step in and negotiate a deal in their stead?
All the big players know that Zee is a zero. He is just a puppet put in place. He means nothing and if this conflict is terminated all he’ll know about is the eviction notice. He won’t be involved in any way with any talks. He means nothing
In reality we have no choice if we want to make anything ever again.
Our proxy war failed.
So instead of western investment giants taking control of Russian energy markets/production via the implementation of weak liberal democracies within a ‘Balkanised’ former RF we have to eat umble pie and start buying again.
Or pay 5/6 x for US & Norwegian, Qatari LNG … which, let’s be honest, isn’t working out v well for Germany at the moment.
Led by utter donkeys.
The West will just have to build more nuclear power facilities.
Now that would be a great idea but I’m sure the Just Stop Oil Princesses wouldn’t approve.
Lord Ismay, the first leader of Nato said that its purpose was ‘to keep the soviets out, the Americans in and Germany down’. Buying expensive American gas rather than cheap Russian gas in order to wreck the German industrial economy is therefore perfect Nato policy, but only if you are America. Perhaps we need to reform Nato?
Well, we need to realise that the real enemy is Russia.
The EU should only take Russian gas after all the siezed Ukrainian territories have been returned unconditionally to Ukraine and Russia states publicly to the world and internally that Ukraine’s democratic choices of friendships and treaties are solely the business of Ukraine.
John, you know that’s not going to happen. Putin has the upper hand now. If Boris the clown didn’t skip to Istanbul to scupper the early peace deal on US orders, things would look different.
But he did skip John.
And hundreds of thousands are dead, for what exactly?
And hundreds of thousands are dead, for what exactly? For freedom and democracy. Plus, some of the dead are Russians, and the less of them there are, the better.
What freedom and democracy? Where? It’s never popped up in my life.
Do you live in Ukraine?
Freedom and democracy in Ukraine ?
They voted voted the wrong way in 2014. The “free” west staged a coup and put a comedian out front.
Come on maverick.
Don’t be a goose.
The Ukrainian people staged the coup to get rid of the Russian stooge that had been foisted on them (and who now lives in Russia).
Naive, mav. .
The comedian has banned other political parties and cancelled elections indefinitely.
Freedom. Got it.
It’s an oligarch state just like Russia.
And increasingly the US too.
Freedom.
The Glorious Dead. I expect they’ll get a lovely memorial one day.
I would say not even then. Russia should be a pariah state for the whole of this century at least.
Russians are LOVELY.
If it were up to me, I’d have nuked the lot of them in ’48.
Johnny von Neumann, reincarnate.
It would have saved us a Cold War….
Winning the peace will revolve around not buying Russian exports.
This is a sound article. The West must never fall into the trap of trading with Russia again. Russians are simply not a people who can be trusted.
If we stopped buying stuff from countries which we cannot trust then we’d have a very small choice left. If we look at just the main nations we’d have to stop trading with you come up with Russia, China, USA, France, Spain, and the rest of the EU, the whole of the GCC, Turkey, all of which have actively attempted to undermine the UK in the post war era.
If you’re a Commonwealth country I imagine you might add the UK post joining the Common Market.
I take the point that countries might deal with other countries that they are not entirely simpatico with, but Russia has been the sworn enemy of the West for the last 100 years (uncomfortable alliance for a few years in the 1940s notwithstanding), and will be the sworn enemy of the West for the next 100 years.
It’s worth remembering that Russia had been a constant ally of England from the period of Ivan the Terrible right up until the British intervention in Crimea. During that same period we were in pretty much permanent conflict with the French and the Spanish.
In addition Germany has been an enemy of both the UK and Europe twice since 1914.
Both 17thC and 18thC France under Napoleon and Hitler in the early mid 20th Century waged wars with the intent of creating a European empire subject to, initially French rule, and latterly to German rule.
Russia, to the north and east, up until 1945, occupied itself with complex tribal and cultural conflicts across the steppes and Balkans which had been going on for at least 2000 years.
And, lest we not forget, 250 years ago, a bunch of terrorists waged an insurrection against a government because they wanted to break a treaty with the indigenous peoples that there would be no expansion beyond agreed borders.
Why d’you think the lights are still on. We buy Russian gas. So does all Europe. It’s just done in suitably covert fashion. The idea that is and Europe are not buying Russian gas well even a four year old kid would have more sense than to believe that. Why would we not? We all want to be warm and lit up!
Surely the logical solution would be to utilise the available gas fields within Europe rather than reply on sources which are subject to the economic and political whims of countries who, quite understandably, will prioritise their interests over those of the EU and wider Europe whilst we transition to 100% nuclear baseload via SMRs at which point we happily forget about “renewables” unless they can be shown to make economic sense (geothermal in Iceland and hydro in Norway being prime examples.)