Most revealing is that many residents of these blue states are already voting with their feet. In the past decade, five southern states — Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and South Carolina, along with Arizona in the West — exceeded the growth of all of the other (44) states and DC, according to the census. This pattern has accelerated since 2020, with southern states gaining 1.7 million people, while the other three census regions (Northeast, Midwest, and West) all had net domestic migration losses. In 2023, southern states accounted for 87% of all US population growth.

New York, New Jersey, and California are all losing residents, often to these same states. Last year, New York, California and Illinois lost more people to out-migration than any other states. Demographer Wendell Cox notes that the largest percentage loss of residents occurred in big core cities such as New York, Chicago and San Francisco.

In contrast, populations grew in sprawling areas such as Phoenix, Dallas, and Orlando. But although New York City had the biggest losses, an outstanding eight out of every 10 New York towns have also witnessed population declines since 2020. Overall, 90% of US growth last year was outside of big cities, the electoral base of the Democrats.

This red state surge is likely to continue given that red states have significantly higher birth rates. Over time, notes demographer Lyman Stone, this may constitute a “conservative fertility advantage”.

Indeed, many from the groups who add most to the baby supply — minorities, millennials and immigrants — are also moving to red states. In the past, both African Americans and immigrants headed to the West Coast, the Northeast and Chicago, where they felt welcome and saw opportunity. Now they are migrating instead to Dallas, Miami and even small towns in the Midwest. Los Angeles’s foreign-born population even declined over the past decade. Similarly, before the pandemic, affluent young professionals were heading to less expensive and congested cities in search of homes in places they could afford.

In the economic war, the red states are clearly winning. Last year, the biggest upsurge in new business formation took place in Texas, the Deep South and the Southwest, while New York and the West Coast economies lagged. Texas and Florida are now the country’s high growth hotspots, and are also attracting the most tech workers.

If their leaders are in denial, regular New Yorkers and other blue state residents see these trends. Gothamites, once reliably chauvinistic, are now particularly down on their state; barely 30% think conditions are “excellent or good”, down from 50% just six years ago. Almost half of New Jersey residents would like to live elsewhere.

Given that Biden will likely win these states, does this matter? A closer presidential poll could result in Republicans winning congressional seats in both New York and California. But what matters most about these shifts, particularly among working class and minority voters, is precisely what the Bronx rally has come to symbolise: the slow breaking up of the Democrats’ traditional coalition. If this pressure can be seen in the bluest of states, perhaps our future may be redder than many suspect.

---

Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.

joelkotkin

---