December 8, 2024 - 8:00am
A spectre is haunting the Conservative Party — the spectre of populism. With the polls showing Reform UK gaining on the Tories, and Nigel Farage welcoming high-profile defectors on a weekly basis, a realignment on the Right seems closer than ever.
But for disgruntled ex-Tories who might view Reform as the answer to the Right’s unpopularity, there’s a major problem: Farage’s party is almost as unpopular with younger voters as the Conservatives are.
This week, a feature from Sky News gave the impression that young people are flocking to the Reform banner. That’s mainly based on the strength of the party’s social media operation. But when it comes to actual votes, the picture is less impressive. According to YouGov, the Reform vote share at the general election was just 9% among 18-24 year olds. That compares to 41% for Labour, 18% for the Greens, 16% for the Lib Dems and a miserable 8% for the Tories. Reform did only slightly better among the 25-29 and 30-39 age groups.
A survey for Lord Ashcroft Polls shows a similar pattern, with the party’s overall performance being pulled up by the old and down by the young. The age-related skew isn’t as extreme as it is for the Conservatives, but it is unusual by international standards. Just look at America, where, according to a Tufts University study, Donald Trump was re-elected with the support of 47% of 18 to 29-year-old voters.
Evidently, the Right needn’t pander to political correctness to win over Zoomers and Millennials. Compared to 2020, Trump achieved a 15-point increase in support from young men and an eight-point increase from young women.
The situation in Canada is even more dramatic, where Pierre Poilievre has rejuvenated the Right. Despite the existence of Left-wing alternatives to Justin Trudeau’s clapped-out Liberal government, younger voters have swung behind the Canadian Tories, who now lead among under-35s. Meanwhile in Europe, parties of the populist Right tend to do better with 20- and 30-somethings than among pensioners. Examples include the National Rally in France and the AfD in Germany.
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SubscribeIDK. I would be surprised if those numbers don’t turn around in a big way. Labour and Tories offer nothing to young people.
Agreed. To me, all these figures show is that Reform has massive scope for expansion.
True, but Peter is right both the vibe and the policy mix need looking at. There is a big gap in the market for a socially conservative/economically left coded platform which theoretically Labour, Conservatives or Reform could move towards – but for different reasons their base/donors/leaders dislike the idea. The question is how to do the economic side without tax and spend (which has reached its limits). I’ve looked at this in a substack series https://sfhwebb.substack.com/p/could-populism-work?r=1cycu5
The SDP appears to fill that gap, but for some reason nobody pays it any attention
They could do a better job of promoting their existence. I think I might be somewhat sympathetic to them, but I’ve never looked at their policies to make sure because I keep forgetting about them.
Reform barely existed at the last election and still barely do, the younger usually politically disconnected and not paying much attention even inside of election seasons. Turn out is low. So you would expect new parties to struggle with them at any rate, see how it took Trump 8 years to succeed with younger men.
Also the demographic destiny argument has always been made and never worked out, because people get more conservative as they age. So I doubt the conservatives are too concerned by statistics like the one in the article.
I agree. Those stats remind of a marketing agency who told me the retailer I worked for had a problem as its average customer age was 45. As I told them that’s a meaningless stat without knowing what the average age was 5 to 10 years earlier.
35-40 year olds are yet to appreciate comfortable shoes and warm winter clothing. They are at the end of their invincible years and their kids are growing up but not yet thrust into the brainwashing maw of university from which they have barely recovered themselves.
Exactly, Norman. It always amazes me how some apparently seasoned and intelligent political commentators constantly miss the point about age-related political preferences.
Yes, older right wing voters die off. But what do they think happens to the idealistic left wing youngsters? Do they not age as well?
The ” young” are no less diverse than any other group nor any more less discerning
We now have in the UK at least two generations who have been born , educated and entered adulthood ( with voting rights ) all within the same social mix
The experiences of such shared experiences will slowly ( but quite definitely ) have an impact. .
I think this rings true.
Another factor is that younger voters have only had the Tory years to experience along with the constant barrage of media pushing against them without understanding just how much more dismal Labour have been in office. This will become apparent over the next few years, if it isn’t already.
The Conservatives were sabotaged. No newspaper will go near the story.
There is no established right wing party in UK. The Tories were infiltrated and gutted by the Left. The media and newspapers all played their part in the various manufactured scandals. Take the Pincher case as an example. The ‘victim’ was a media plant. Hence the cover up.
Why has Unherd (a ridiculous name) not reviewed Downfall?
Ye gods! For a second I thought you were referring to the film of the same name, featuring the last days of Hitler. (Excellent film by the way.)
I think the point that this article misses is that Reform’s support in the youth section of the market is rising most in the 15-18 age group, who, currently mostly cannot vote, but all of whom will be entitled to do so by 2029.
However, I would agree that a large, and all together obvious, hole in Reform’s current manifesto is on planning reform where their current position is very woolly and does not go nearly far enough. The whole of the town and country planning act 1947, the nitrate neutrality, pointless buildings regs, the newts, beetles and bats – all of it needs to go an be replaced with something that enables a) rapid construction of critical infrastructure b) building houses where people want to live c) making housing affordable.
Agreed. I think that there is a younger cohort of Gen Z coming to adulthood who, having observed the malign effect of woke on their older brothers and especially sisters, are reacting strongly against it.
“The spectre of populism.” Perhaps one day one of the Unherd writers will define what they mean by ‘populism’.
It is a smear word, The same as ‘the Right’ used in this article. Undefined and in UK non-existent. The media have seen to that.
There have been quite a few articles like this one in Unherd (stupid name, can’t you change it?) recently. Just vague terminology, articles subtly smearing the non-Left consensus.
It suits the type of writer here. Just like the Gender writers. A lot of waffle. Leading the readers none the wiser.
As a woman and mother of daughters I fear the spectre of islamisation not populism.
Listening to recent Oxford Union debates has proven the disturbing depth of ignorance that exists around this religion and its culture. Hardly any wonder when, for years now, the MSM has conspired in keeping away from the public the appalling reality of life for many – most especially women and minorities – in many islamic states. Our educational establishment has also determinedly avoided teaching in any depth, if at all, the history of that religions imperialism, how it is spread and how once in power it will never relinquish it.
Yes, this burning issue has been deliberately neglected.
If you listen to leftists, the biggest threat to the women in the West (and in the world) is Trump.
Words fail me…
I’d have to question wether the “ignorance that exists around this religion and its culture” is worse than the ignorance that exists between the sexes in so called called western culture. Do we have to go in to the appalling statistics that are available?
Labour under Blair were very quick off the mark in building diversity and inclusion into education at all levels. This made sense as part of a policy of multiculturalism and mass immigration. Other countries were slow to do this. The difference is now starting to show.
How robust that difference will prove to be over the longer term is another question.
Reform’s local officials are often volunteers, many moved over from UKIP. They are clueless about social media, just glance at their regional Facebook pages – which the young have abandoned.
Some of Tice’s candidate choices, dressed in either Harris Tweed or Matalan / George highlighted why Reform can’t break through the 25% tipping point. They need Lord Alli’s tailor and a style guru. Saachi and Saachi.
No hairgel, earrings, tattoos from a drunk night out like some I saw.
Reform’s comms are atrocious, a carrier pigeon would elicit a quicker response. They need to employ younger people who can filter and streamline their IT.
The young don’t want to be lectured on how easy they have it now, how boomer’s mortgages were 15%, how a spell in the Forces would do them good. They have to experience it for themselves.
Not until Nigel attracts celebrities the young admire or disgruntled younger Labour MPs the kids follow will Reform attain broader appeal.
“Not until Nigel attracts celebrities the young admire or disgruntled younger Labour MPs the kids follow will Reform attain broader appeal.”. Perhaps Nigel should engage Kamala Harris as his PR consultant?
I presume you are ex UKIP and Matalan’s your tailor. $1.5 billion to lose an election when Musk’s $200m did very nicely. The young like Musk but not boring old UKIPpers.
How many times does this exhausted subject need to be put to bed with a two sentence response? Young people get old. Their political views change. (Caveat; unless they’re left wing, those people never grow up).
When is Unherd going to write about the non-entity (politically) that was Sunak?
That is the story.
The problem is: Gove (principal player of Downfall) is the editor of the Spectator, which is owned by Paul Marshall, who is also the owner of (the stupidly titled) Unherd.
So one story we will not be reading about (that means Unheard, you stupidly titled Unherd) is the story of corruption in the Conservative Party.
Unherd??? Change your name please!
Reading Downfall, it is evident one of the biggest problems in UK democracy is the incestuous relationship between journalists and politicians.
But how can anyone write about this when journalists control the narrative?
Gove appointed Paul Marshall as head non-executive director at the Department of Education in 2013.
Paul Marshall appointed Michael Gove editor of the Spectator in 2024.
I’ve got news for you. Those polls are so wrong. Thank goodness
Because Reform, or as I like to call them Farage Party No. 3, are just neoliberals like the Tories, only more vocal when they whine about immigration. They don’t offer any substantial change to this country, just more of the same, but worse.
Did you read the Reform Contract issued before the last election?
Guy, I think you are talking to a firmly closed mind! He’s obviously not read any of their stuff. Probably plenty of Guardian op eds on the subject though….
The Tories had fourteen years and made a total mess of the country. After only five months it is clear Labour will be no better. The rationale must be, why not try Reform?
Why isn’t Cummings facing criminal charges for bringing down Boris Johnson’s government? He has admitted to doing this. It would be an open and shut case.
Exactly what law has he broken?
Sedition. It is common law.
“The guilt of sedition is often described of consisting of its tendency to produce public mischief… and so it is. But it is not every sort of mischief that will exhaust the description of the offence. It must be that sort of mischief that consists in and arises out of directly and materially obstructing public authority”
R v Chief of Metropolitan Stipendiary Magistrate, ex parte Choudhury [1991] 1 All ER 306(CA).
Why isn’t Cummings being charged with sedition? He has admitted in a BBC interview he plotted from the very first day to remove Boris Johnson.
The key bit in the Article was Author’s reference to the lack of a Reform policy offer to the young, especially related to housing. When you then scan the comments here you see Farage’s problem – his older supporters don’t want the things that policy offer would need to entail and fixate on other side issues that don’t bother a much more diverse young.
Now it is true incumbent Govts are being clobbered by electorates whether they are Right or Left and that gives a glimmer of a chance for Reform. But fundamentally it doesn’t have a coherent Policy offer and almost certainly will thus not get beyond a ‘protest’ ceiling in it’s support leaving it the Farage Grifting machine it is.
The Tories were in power for 14 years, therefore for most youngsters they’ve only ever known the right to be in power.
Seeing as what a hash the Tories have made of everything, especially the prospects of the young, it’s no wonder that support of those age groups is at rock bottom.
Therefore you can’t really compare it to the likes of Canada where the left has been in power for a long time, or the states where it has alternated back and forth
The Tories are not a party of the right. You can exactly compare Britain to Canada.
The tragedy for Britain is after 14 years of the Left, there is no party of the Right to make any corrections.
There is Starmer.
God help UK
They represent the right in Britain, whether you believe they’re right wing enough is a completely seperate discussion