Yesterday’s local elections were existentially bad for the Conservatives. The party lost 676 councillors and 16 councils — including true-blue Buckinghamshire, which it has never lost before.

In quasi-Biblical scenes, the party was also expelled from the Garden of England — otherwise known as Kent, which has been under continuous Conservative control since 1997. Even when Tony Blair was at the height of his powers, the Tories still had England’s largest shire council to prove their relevance. No longer. Yesterday, the Conservative group of 62 councillors was reduced to just five. The Tories won’t even form the main opposition to the new Reform UK administration, a task which falls to the Liberal Democrats.

These results constitute a disaster without precedent. A chart from YouGov data scientist Dylan Difford shows that the Tories were kicked out in 41% of all the seats fought on Thursday. By a wide margin, that’s more than in any set of local elections over the last half-century.

Perhaps the most devastating statistic of them all is the Projected National Share (PNS), a translation of local results into outcomes for a notional general election. According to the BBC’s PNS, Reform would receive 30% of the vote, Labour 20%, the Lib Dems 17%, and the Conservatives just 15%. This projection vindicates polling companies which have consistently shown Reform UK in a clear first place and the Tories trailing badly. Anyone who hoped that their methodology was wrong has found out now.

The cliff-edge effect in the UK’s electoral system means that if a party’s vote share falls below 20%, it is likely to receive a much lower share of the seats. Just look at what happened to Reform at last year’s general election. The party gained one in seven votes, but took just five out of 650 constituencies. Of course, winning any seats at all was a breakthrough for Reform. For the Tories, however, a similar result would be terminal.

There are three ways in which the Conservative Party can save itself. The first is to dramatically improve its level of support. The second would be to geographically concentrate its remaining support, like the Lib Dems did last year. The third is to form an electoral pact with another party.

It’s a mark of just how much trouble the Tories are in that a deal with Nigel Farage is now the most realistic option. This raises an important question, though: what would be in it for him? Won’t yesterday’s results simply embolden those in Reform who want to finish off the Conservative Party rather than rescue it?

Not necessarily. For one thing, Reform’s victory wasn’t quite total, and the party will likely need Tory help to take control of councils such as Leicestershire and Warwickshire where it is short of a majority. As for the national picture, Reform is by no means guaranteed a Commons majority at the next general election. The mayoral results in Doncaster, North Shields, and the West of England — as well as numerous council seats — show that a split in the Right-of-centre vote can still let in the Left.

All the while, Reform should remember that electoral pacts aren’t just an option for the Right. Labour has just had its own wake-up call, losing 186 councillors. In particular, the loss of Durham County Council — Labour-led for a century — could prompt a strategic rethink. The closer that Farage gets to Downing Street, the greater the incentive for tactical voting across the Left and centre. Faced with a progressive alliance, Reform may yet discover that the down-and-out Tories aren’t so irrelevant after all.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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