Every time an Italian prime minister amasses enough political capital to try and change the country’s economic rut, they blow their chance by messing with the electoral system or the constitution. Silvio Berlusconi’s Porcellum, a self-serving electoral law passed in 2005, ended up backfiring on him and helped to bring down the system it was supposed to protect. Matteo Renzi, the most serious reformer in 21st-century Italian politics, tried to change the bicameral parliamentary system in 2016, only for the following referendum defeat to curtail his premiership.

On Monday, Giorgia Meloni was convincingly defeated in a referendum of her own. Due to the nature and implications of this loss, the Italian Prime Minister may well find herself in a similar position to her predecessors. Her attempted constitutional reform was far more esoteric, as it focused on separating career paths for judges and prosecutors. She did not tie her own legitimacy to the referendum result, but her position still appears to be in danger.

The defeat is a serious blow to Meloni’s aura of invincibility. Instead of trying to implement serious change on the root causes of Italy’s economic problems, she and her government pursued an old Right-wing hobbyhorse, and the issue’s obscurity ended up hurting her.

Another problem for Meloni is the scale of the loss. Rather than a knife-edge, the reforms were voted down by a wide margin: 54% to 46%. The “No” side also won out in most of Italy’s regions and major cities. Only Friuli-Venezia-Giulia, Veneto, and Lombardy opted for the reforms. Even then, Milan, the capital of Lombardy, voted against the government’s proposal. Turnout was also very high, at 59%. Voters aged 18 to 28, often difficult to mobilize across the Western world, turned out at a rate of 67% and opted for the “No” side. That’s a very bad sign for Meloni ahead of elections likely to take place next year.

What happens next will partly depend on whether the PM and her government push ahead with electoral reform. This is a separate issue from the judiciary, and regards shifting to a fixed term for a prime minister who would be elected via a direct vote. Voters are already dissatisfied with Meloni. One can only imagine how they’d react next year to what looks like an attempt to rig the system in the government’s favor.

It will also depend on how rival parties react. This is the first time the opposition has been able to land a blow on Meloni at the national level, following a series of regional election successes from united opposition parties.

Any future prime minister who wants to turn the country around should not worry about Italy’s image abroad. The idea, proposed by Meloni’s side during the referendum, that the reforms would bring Italy in line with other European countries proved ineffective. The country has its own problems, and solving them will require a unique solution. There is a case for Italy to be made, but who will make it?

This is an edited version of an article which first appeared in the Eurointelligence newsletter.