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Pennsylvania is the swing state that matters in November

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris campaigns in Pennsylvania earlier this week. Credit: Getty

September 14, 2024 - 5:00pm

Pennsylvania is haunted by its many claims to historical distinction. Its largest metropolis was the “workshop of the world” but remains America’s poorest big city. Its south-central farms and northeastern mountains boast the richest soil and coal veins, respectively, but sterile town-like developments and mammoth warehouses now dominate the land. And its defining steel company, which built America’s skyscrapers and ships, could be ultimately acquired by a Japanese corporation.

Now, following a summer of cataclysms, voters comprise Pennsylvania’s most precious resource. The Keystone State that fuelled America’s industrial revolution now decides presidential elections — and draws hundreds of millions of dollars for the prize. Pennsylvania has long played an outsized role in US electoral politics, and a bipartisan consensus has respected, or feared, the state’s pivotal distinction.

It was the case in 1944, when a Newsweek panel declared that Pennsylvania’s 35 Electoral College votes — then the second-most behind New York — would decide that year’s presidential election, won by Franklin D. Roosevelt. It happened again in 1980, when a Ronald Reagan spokesman said of Pennsylvania: “If there is a more critical state, I’d like to know about it.” And it was apparent in 2008, when Philadelphia native and politics connoisseur Chris Matthews told one state newspaper that Republicans “need Pennsylvania”; John McCain then lost the state — and the race. By 2016, Obama-to-Trump voters delivered Pennsylvania for Republicans, but then the state reversed course in 2020.

Since 1948, no Democratic presidential candidate has secured the White House without winning Pennsylvania. Overall, the state has favoured 10 of the past 12 election victors.

Armed with 19 electoral college votes, a fraction of its past tally, Pennsylvania has the largest bounty among the seven swing states. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied in the state. As elections analyst Nate Silver views it, Pennsylvania has a 35% chance of tipping the presidential race.

John Updike, the late writer defined by stories about his native Pennsylvania, once told Life magazine: “I like middles. It is in middles that extremes clash, where ambiguity restlessly rules.” In Pennsylvania, the prevailing electoral mood remains so unclear because of this clash, which is intensified by its demographic complexity when compared to other swing states. Even since 2016, Pennsylvania has experienced profound demographic and economic change — from increasingly Latino-majority cities to booming healthcare-driven suburbs— making that year’s presidential election a fruitless baseline for understanding the state’s present electoral map.

In the case of voter registration, from formerly staunch Democratic regions to suburban Philadelphia, Republicans have added more than 103,000 new voters since January. As a result, Democrats have a 169,000 voter-registration majority compared to the advantage of 559,000 they enjoyed in 2020. This dramatic shift is driven in part by party affiliation lagging behind voting patterns, but also by voters’ economic discontent during Biden’s presidency. According to a recent CBS News poll, 82% of registered Pennsylvania voters ranked the economy as the major factor in their presidential vote. Meanwhile, 7% of state voters rated the condition of the national economy as “very good”.

Both ends of the state could prove measures of this prevailing voter issue. Western Pennsylvania — where the state’s natural gas industry is centred — is home to Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County, among the nation’s biggest population losers based on census numbers. The county has also lost 50,000 jobs over the past five years — more than the state’s 66 other counties. Downtown Pittsburgh, the heart of the region’s eds-and-meds economy, has emptying skyscrapers — a sobering trend for a city defined by its decades-long renaissance. As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette recently reported, the city’s progressive politics have “ignited […] opposition. Suburbs have grown increasingly Republican in response to the bright blue urban center.”

In eastern Pennsylvania, the populous Lehigh Valley is booming as a centre for warehousing and logistics but also healthcare. In 2023 the sprawling area enjoyed more economic-development projects than any other US region with a population between 200,000 and 1 million. But all this truck-congested growth has led to quality-of-life concerns, and apprehension about the comparatively lower wages associated with warehousing jobs in a state that had the highest grocery inflation rate last year. The region itself has a significant Latino population, which now forms 6% of the statewide electorate. If this voting bloc is mobilised, it could prove increasingly open to the post-Trump GOP.

Though Pennsylvania ranks fifth among states with the most colleges, it’s still a bastion of working-class voters without higher-education degrees. It is this bloc — black voters in Harrisburg, the capital city; Latinos in Reading, the fourth-largest city; formerly Democratic white Catholics in northeastern Pennsylvania; a cross-section of Trump supporters in Philadelphia’s Northeast — that has turned against the Democratic Party. This election will test whether these groups can overcome Democratic-trending suburban growth in formerly GOP communities.

This week, on the question of predicting Pennsylvania’s electoral outcome, journalist Mark Halperin responded: “The answer is ‘don’t know.’” It is this ambiguity, driven by those demographic “middles”, that make Pennsylvania so pivotal in November.


Charles F. McElwee is the founding editor of RealClearPennsylvania. Follow him on X at @CFMcElwee.

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UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
20 days ago

Since democrats in Pennsylvania are in charge of counting ballots, it is very problematic.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
20 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Don’t start with that Trump-inspired, poor loser fantasy. Until he came along, the United States was the envy of the world for its free and fair elections, and its peaceful transfer of power. Al Gore, who was Clinton’s Vice President and was running for election and lost to Bush, accepted his loss and counted the votes. It must have been hard, but he did it.

Rob N
Rob N
20 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

The US has NEVER been famous for election integrity. Always been corrupt with Mayor Daley in Chicago being probably the most famous cheat.

Mark Phillips
Mark Phillips
20 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Once upon a time, in a land far, far away, there was a small animal called a Mo. These had long silky fur that was very warm and they were hunted for it. Not killed, because they had a rare ability to shed their fur when caught. They lived in underground communities called MoTowns.
See, if you can tell fairy stories, then so can I.

Samir Iker
Samir Iker
20 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

There are a couple of problems with that.
Firstly, the process must be above suspicion. There were potentially suspicious things that happened, Biden winning despite losing bellwether seats and gaining record votes despite being a boring, uncharismatic person. Or the sudden vote spikes.
Even if there were reasons, from a fairness point of view, there needed to be a thorough check, especially of postal ballots.
Instead of which, the “establishment” doubled down and refused to accept any dissent against the supposedly “pure” elections.

Secondly, the tone and statements from Trump’s opponents was consistently that he shouldn’t be allowed to win, come what may.
To the extent of suppressing news on that laptop, salivating at the thought of someone shooting Trump, or as we saw recently, one sided moderation in a debate.
But somehow we are expected to believe that the Democrats were innocent and honest when it comes to counting votes.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
20 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

What are you talking about? The U.S. has one of the most corrupt democracies in the world. There have been well over 1,000 criminal convictions for election fraud in the last 20 years. There are a variety of databases that collect this info. Don’t get me wrong. The Dems and republicans both do it. Trump lost the last election, but to call the U.S. the envy of the world for its free and fair elections is gobsmacking.

The suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop scandal happened. We can all agree on that. And it was triggered by the FBI, the CIA, big tech and the regime media. What impact did it have? IDK, but the razor thin vote margins in some states suggest it might have. The corruption of the institutions is a far bigger threat to democracy than Trump because it is systemic.

David McKee
David McKee
19 days ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

Hm. Before people get too carried away, the American media has always known when to look the other way – Kennedy’s womanising is a prominent example.

Possibly the worst was the studied silence about Woodrow Wilson’s stroke, when he was completely incapacitated.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
19 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

According to court records more ballots were counted in Pennsylvania than there were registered voters. Go to hell with your reality rejection.

Bernard Hill
Bernard Hill
19 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

…you’ve got to be kidding UR! Go read some actual history of America and its elections ! The US is a beacon for ‘freedom’ and hotly contested electoral processes for sure. But the Idea that they’ve ever been ‘free and fair’ as might be said of the UK and the Commonwealth in the 20th century, is utter nonsense.

Anna Bramwell
Anna Bramwell
19 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Russiagate?

Daniel Lee
Daniel Lee
19 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Lol. Google the Daley Machine. Boss Tweed. Any Democratic Party controlled city. You won’t find much about “free and fair elections” except in the sense that they don’t have them.
Then have a look at the Permanent Government apparats bragging about the secret “Shadow Campaign” they used to tilt election procedures against Trump on the spurious grounds that he (ironically) posed an existential threat to the country.
https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/

Allison Barrows
Allison Barrows
19 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Nixon won against Kennedy, but accepted, for the good of the nation, that the election had been stolen. He went on to win the presidency in 1968 and again in a landslide in 1972. Then the deep state and the CIA set up the ridiculous “Watergate Scandal” to oust him.

Edward G. Robinson quipped about stolen elections in Key Largo back in 1948. Everything is rigged unless someone’s too sure of the outcome and drops the ball. That’s what happened in 2016. The crooks of both parties in Washington are responsible for Trump’s rise and popularity. Since you hate the guy, as the media has instructed you to do, then blame the [R]s and [D]s.

T Bone
T Bone
19 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

I have absolutely no idea which Unherd reader is being responded to. Give each Unherd Reader a number.

Geoff W
Geoff W
19 days ago
Reply to  T Bone

“I am UnHerd Reader.”

Bernard Hill
Bernard Hill
19 days ago
Reply to  Geoff W

…or is that Unread Reader?

Samir Iker
Samir Iker
19 days ago
Reply to  Bernard Hill

Unread herder?

Sylvia Volk
Sylvia Volk
19 days ago
Reply to  Geoff W

“We are all UnHerd Reader.”

Martin M
Martin M
18 days ago
Reply to  Sylvia Volk

“Ich bin ein UnHerd Reader”!

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
18 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Votes get stolen in Philly even when there’s only one candidate running.

Allison Barrows
Allison Barrows
19 days ago

Is this guy under the impression that our votes matter? I think it was Mark Twain who said, “if voting made a difference, they wouldn’t let us do it”.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
19 days ago

.