A massive Israeli strike on Beirut at the weekend signalled just how one-sided the ceasefire agreed with Lebanon in November has been. Yet Hezbollah seems in no position to respond, with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun instead imploring the Americans and French to intervene and rein in Israel. Meanwhile, new Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa suggested last week that he would be willing to normalise relations with Israel in exchange for sanctions relief, in what would be a momentous step from a former Islamist fighter.

These developments reflect how, in recent months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been able to take the offensive in Gaza, Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East. All the while, he has worked to solidify his position at home, as with his targeting of Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, who resigned yesterday following sustained pressure from the PM. With no election scheduled until October 2026, and his Right-wing coalition partners mollified by the resumption of the war in Gaza, he is secure for now — provided he isn’t brought down by the courts.

Unburdened by any pressure from the Americans, Netanyahu can let the Gaza war run on indefinitely. There seems to be no realistic chance of returning more hostages, but there is no overwhelming pressure for him to do so, with his position more dependent on support from cabinet members who want to continue the war. The PM is therefore in no hurry to get “conclusive” results, whatever that would mean. Rather, he is acting on his ambitious plans to reshape the region, and resume the scheme that was so violently interrupted by the 7 October attacks.

At the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, then-US President Joe Biden unveiled the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). A direct challenge to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Russia-backed International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), when complete it would create a direct trade link from India to Europe via Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel has long been planning for its integral role in this “new Silk Road”. Back in 2017, it began looking at developments to link the port of Haifa, on Israel’s Mediterranean coast, to Jordan and eventually the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain.

This proved a potentially existential threat to Iran’s already embattled economy, given that it was even more invested in the success of the proposed INSTC than Russia. Tehran saw the INSTC as a way to connect its economy to Russia, China, India and Central Asia using overland routes that would be harder to blockade in the event of a war with Israel or the United States, and had allocated $13 billion for railway and port upgrades across the country. While this doesn’t fully explain the timing of the 7 October attacks, just weeks after Biden unveiled the IMEC plan, it certainly helps explain Iran’s fulsome, and ultimately reckless, support for its proxies in the months after the massacre.

With Iran and its proxies seemingly defeated, IMEC is now back on the table. Last February India and the UAE signed the first official deal on the route’s development, with India’s treatment of its Muslim minority not providing an obstacle to negotiations. There is no reason to think that its expulsion of Pakistani nationals following last week’s Kashmir terror attack will make any difference to the Emiratis either, just as Israel’s campaign in Gaza hasn’t prompted the UAE to cut ties.

In response to the attack, Netanyahu let the cat out the bag in relation to Israeli cooperation with India and Saudi Arabia, posting on social media that he was working with both countries on a proposed new transport route. It is also notable that Israeli flags were waved at a protest outside the Pakistani embassy in London last week, another sign of increasingly close relations between India and Israel.

Saudi Arabia is in a more awkward position given its public condemnations of Israel since the war in Gaza began, but its role in IMEC is central to hopes to diversify its economy beyond oil. Despite the death toll in Gaza, the Saudis are still saying they would be willing to recognise Israel, but now it would be conditional on the creation of a Palestinian state.

Netanyahu’s recent actions show that he is moving beyond the “reactive” posture into which he was forced after the Hamas attacks of 2023, and that he is once again asserting his broader long-term agenda. With the Iranian regime clearly on the back foot, Hezbollah and Syria so weak, and Donald Trump in the White House for four more years, he’ll never have a better opportunity.

---