With a nation’s hopes and fears resting on him, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Donald Trump at the White House for the first time as a fellow head of government. Recalling Justin Trudeau’s first visit in 2017, observers were looking for cues as to how Trump might seek to intimidate Carney, such as through an excessively forceful handshake or an outrageous remark, but the optics and soundbites were (largely) uneventful.

In fact, the exchanges between the two leaders were remarkably civil and pleasant. That is, despite the dire threats hanging over the Canadian delegation, with the President offering effusive congratulations on Carney’s election win and even taking credit for it as “the greatest thing to happen” to the ruling Liberals (“the greatest comeback…perhaps even greater than mine”).

Some Canadians feared an “ambush” like what happened to Ukraine’s Zelensky, but instead there was praise for the PM. Although Trump did discuss Canada’s potential as “the 51st state”, Carney held firm, reminding the President that “in real estate, some things are never for sale”. When reporters asked about tariffs, Trump refused to budge and repeated his claim that the US was subsidising Canada, while Carney asserted that Canada was America’s “biggest client”. In terms of tone, however, Trump seemed to go out of his way to express “a lot of respect” and underline “friendship” as the basis of his approach to the Carney government, while also alluding to “the bad relationship” with his predecessors, as if to say it was a thing of the past.

Canada’s leader had originally pledged to meet his American counterpart only when the latter showed “respect for Canadian sovereignty”. Though nothing has really changed since these comments, Carney chose to engage with the President anyway; the two North American countries, after all, must come to some kind of rapprochement even as they chart divergent economic courses.

For instance, Canada may wish to deepen trade ties with Europe or Asia, but it still is joined at the hip with the US economy across a range of key industries like autos, steel, and lumber. In addition, the US may wish to assert energy independence, but its energy infrastructure is structurally linked with cheap and abundant Canadian crude, which it receives at a discount. As the leader of the smaller economy, Carney knows this, and Trump seems willing to listen. Judging by Trump’s accommodating tone, the unlikely personal rapport between the two may prove to be a solid enough foundation to achieve a new settlement beyond the terms of the 2018 USMCA.

As to what this could potentially look like down the line, Canada and the United States may end up retaining most of their close integration on legacy industries like existing car manufacturing while branching out from each other on new and emerging industries like nuclear energy or next-generation manufacturing. In fact, Carney ran on enacting just such an arrangement.

In the meantime, he will have to hope for more similarly amicable interactions with Trump where he can assuage the President’s ego and minimise the damage to his country’s interests. This is why Carney’s budding rapport with Trump is more than diplomatic theatre — it’s a high-stakes balancing act between deference and defiance. If he can continue to charm the President while holding the line on sovereignty, this unlikely partnership could reshape North American trade on not just America’s terms, but Canada’s too.

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