November 16, 2020 - 3:44pm
Whatever the disappointments of the US election, there is reason to be optimistic for the future — if you’re a Democrat, that is. For conservatives, it’s unending despair.
This was one conclusion from David Shor’s interview with New York Magazine, on why demographic trends favour the Left.
The data scientist, a rare example of someone who has done well from cancellation, observed that:
One big, really underappreciated social change is that, relative to 20 years ago, the average age of first marriage has gone up by almost a decade. Which is insane! And at the same time, fertility rates have dropped tremendously. I’m not going to comment on whether or not that’s good or bad in a nonpolitical context. But I think the reality is that Democrats are now going to claim a larger part of the life cycle.
- David Shor, New York Magazine
He continues:
We previously were going to start having people turn more conservative at 26. Now that’s been pushed up to 34 or 36. That’s actually very meaningful in terms of votes and in terms of how much longer we can expect millennials and zoomers to stay overwhelmingly Democratic. Also, zoomers actually seem to be incredibly liberal, even relative to older millennials, so far. So there’s reason for hope.
- David Shor, New York Magazine
Among all the US election voting data, which political nerds across the world drool over every four years, perhaps the most curious fact is the enormous voting gap between married and unmarried white women. Despite being as large as 20 points in some elections, it is also one of the least analysed, certainly compared to the much smaller gender gap (although the latter is growing, for related reasons).
Simply put, the more people in any society who are married with children, the more conservative that society will be.
Liberalism is about the freedom of the individual, while western conservatism is about maximising the success of the nuclear family. That is why western conservatism is fundamentally different from the “family values” of non-western traditions, which are about maximising the success of the extended family.
Both western conservatism and liberalism stem from the same WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialised, Rich and Democratic) cultural origins, but one has taken the idea of individualism further.
The marriage gap has been well-known for well over a decade but, as testimony to how ideas carry status and stigma, it is barely commented upon because of who first noticed it: controversial Californian blogger Steve Sailer.
The marriage gap also leads to the “dirt gap” — the more expensive the house prices, the more people vote for Left-of-centre parties, because housing costs suppress family-formation.
This is why runaway housing costs are an existential crisis for our own Conservative Party, building a bonfire under their future election prospects as the younger generation move Left. (It is also the subject of my book, the paperback of which will be out in January.)
Lucky, then, that the only person in Number 10 who appreciated the enormity of the housing crisis problem hasn’t just resigned.
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SubscribeI’d put it the other way round: BOTH the decline of Conservatism and the retreat of marriage can be ascribed to the culture of permanent adolescence ushered in by the generation of 68. The medical and social underpinnings of this development are obvious – increased life expectancy, greater levels of amorous opportunity, the separation of coition from reproduction and a critical mass of people dedicated to a contemplative, “academic” take on life – spread far beyond its natural limit by the brutish expansion and degradation of the tertiary sector. The old sense of limits, of boundaries – in terms of life itself – has been suspended; a person might reach their fifties in such a time before bumping into the really ruthless facts of life – mortality, debility, disappointment. And it is that tragic sense of life which creates Conservatism. Deep personal affection also brings Conservatism in its train, for as Yeats observed, the world in its cruelty “threatens the head that I love”. With the retreat of the family, such profound and tragic emotions are likewise dimmed and dulled. Conversely, a world of detachment readily leads to a culture of illusion and all who represent a threat to such enchantments are vindictively condemned. We live in such a world today. The only consolation a Conservative can take from such conditions is the bitter reflection that such a world must fall, taking the last vestiges of civility and grace with it.
I suppose if one believes “reason for hope” means more places like Seattle, Portland, and LA, then sure, hope.
San Francisco, New York, All democrat controlled cities had bigger Riots &defunding the Police, Hypocritical democrats,When asked why they are leaving these cities, drug problems,Mugging,Looting move to more Republican States,and carry their ”Woke” ideology with them
Sensible article – conservatives are a doomed breed and deservedly so. They fail to recognise that politics is downstream of culture and not the other way around. If you make it impossible to lead a conservative lifestyle, let’s say for simplicity’s sake: savings not debt, ownership over renting, settled vs nomadic, community over self-advancement, children over barrenness/pets, marriage over pleasure/fulfillment, vows over whims, self-reliance over dependance, stable employment over temping; then the conditions for these things must be reasonably attainable and incentivised for a substantial majority of the population. At present, it increasingly is not. Laissez-faire capitalism and globalism, totally accepted and pushed by our ‘right-wingers’, actually wipes out their own voting base. Sad but these trends were obvious decades ago, and they did nothing.
Politics and culture are down stream of ecology.
Population growth within a relatively stabilised economic capacity turns people right as they seek to conserve their standards of living.
They might turn left and be pro migration led population growth but they are in effect voting to make themselves poorer.
Ecology is our core instinct and it is the state of our ecology that informs our politics and our cultural arrangements.
Young people veer left because they want greater equality but if greater equality means more competition and increased consumption within a reducing ecological capacity then they will veer right whatever their socio-economic status.
Absolutely doomed though they did manage to win an 80 seat majority at the last election.
Most people are still married or on the housing ladder by 40, just the age of voting for conservatives is older as a result (though even so the age of voting for conservatives both here and in the US is still younger now than under Blair and Obama for example when only voters over 50 voted Tory or GOP). However in the US liberal means leftwing, it does not mean economically classical liberal as in Europe
People don’t vote for their landlord. Every landlord created by the buy-to-let boom in the UK over the last three decades is accompanied by one – or in many cases, many more than one – voter who is a tenant not a home owner. Obvious but true.
Absolutely. When this subject comes up in conversations I tell my friends that we must find a way of abolishing private residential landlordism. It is a prime destructor of value ( money) and values ( morals)
and then one day you ‘grow up’ …..
I did. I ‘grew up’ playing on the bomb dumps of North Southwark in the ’40s . Got strong immunity system from physical diseases .Alas can’t shake off seeing the effect of social diseases on many people.
I assume that was an ironic comment, meant to be humorous. Hard to know in the disconnected world of internet comments!
Meaning one day , hopefully not too late , you mature and understand that sweat today = smile’s tomorrow.
Work earn save. Shouldn’t need explaining
My comments are exactly the way I see things. I don’t do irony
Totally wrong . Personally know three ‘landlords’ who’s contented tenants simply look forward and plan to be a similar landlord themselves . Of course , you load the word but most ignore it just like the word boss is loaded with assumptions
“Later-life marriage means fewer conservatives”
there is hope for the future still.
Silly boy
ad hominem noted